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New Delhi, Feb 29: India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than six years in the last three months of 2019, with analysts predicting further deceleration as the global Covid 19 coronavirus outbreak stifles growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data released yesterday showed government spending, private investment and exports slowing down, while there is a slight upturn in consumer spending and improvement in rural demand lent support.

The quarterly figure of 4.7% growth matched the consensus in a Reuters poll of analysts but was below a revised - and greatly increased - 5.1% rate for the previous quarter.

The central bank has warned that downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still unfolding.

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government has taken several steps to bolster economic growth, including a privatisation push and increased state spending, after cutting corporate tax rates last September.

In its annual budget presented this month, the government estimated that annual economic growth in the financial year to March 31 would be 5%, its lowest for last 11 years.

Modi’s government is targeting a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, still far below the level needed to generate jobs for millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month.

The annual GDP figure for the September quarter was ramped up from an earlier estimate of 4.5%, while the April-June reading was similarly lifted to 5.6% from 5%, data released by the Ministry of Statistics showed on Friday.

Capital Investment Drop

In the December quarter, private investment grew 5.9%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter, while government spending rose by 11.8%, against 13.2% in the previous three months.

However, corporate capital investment contracted by 5.2% after a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter, indicating that interest rate cuts by the central bank have failed to encourage new investment. Manufacturing, meanwhile, contracted by 0.2%.

“It appears growth slowdown is not just cyclical but more entrenched with consumption secularly joining the slowdown bandwagon even as the investment story continues to languish,” said Madhavi Arora of Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai.

Many economists said that the government stimulus could take four to six quarters of time before lifting the economy and the impact of those efforts could be outweighed by the global fallout from the coronavirus epidemic that began in China.

“The coronavirus remains the critical risk as India depends on China for both demand and supply of inputs,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

Indian shares sank on Friday for a sixth session running, capping their worst week in more than a decade. The NSE Nifty 50 index shed 7.3% over the week, while the Sensex dropped 6.8%, the worst weekly declines since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Separately, India’s infrastructure output rose 2.2% year on year in January, data showed on Friday.

A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the RBI hold off from further cuts to interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative.

Feb 28: National oil marketer Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) on Friday said it is ready to supply low emission BS-VI fuels from April 1 and that there will be a marginal increase in retail prices.

The largest oil supplier has spent over Rs 17,000 crore to upgrade its refineries to produce the low-sulfur diesel and petrol, the company's chairman Sanjiv Singh told reporters here.

Without disclosing the quantum of price increase, Singh said, “there will definitely be a marginal increase in retail prices of the fuels from April 1 when the whole country will be run on new fuels, which will have a sulphur content of only 10 parts per million (ppm) as against the present 50 ppm.

“But let me assure you, we will not be burdening the consumers with a steep hike,” Singh said.

He said, state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) have invested Rs 35,000 crore to upgrade their refineries, of which Rs 17,000 crore have been spent by IOC alone.

Earlier this week, the sell-off bound BPCL said it had invested around Rs 7,000 crore for the same. ONGC-run HPCL has not so far disclosed its readiness for BS-VI supplies or its capex on the same.

HPCL had said from February 26-27 it was ready with BS-VI fuels and that it would sell only the new fuels from March 1.

IOC switched to BS-VI fuel production a fortnight ago and all its depots and containers are ready now, Singh said.

However, he said some remote locations, where the intake is very low, will take some more time to switch. But the company is planning to drain out the entire BS-IV stock and replenish the new fuels at such locations, he added.

Further, it has been reported that the companies will have to increase prices by 70-120 paise a litre, but Singh said, to arrive such a weighted average is not possible given the complexities of each refinery.

He, however, asserted that the price hike will not be a burden on consumers.

We are not looking at this investment from a pure return on investment basis, but this is a national mandate and we have done it.

Having said that, all those countries that moved to low emission fuels are charging higher prices; and from April 1, our prices will also be benchmarked against Euro VI prices as against the present practice of the cost-plus model, Singh concluded.