Here's the first phase flight plan for return of Indian nationals stranded abroad

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Mangaluru Jul 11: A member of Adyar gram panchayat, who was attacked by a gang last night breathed his last at a private hospital in the city.

Mohammed Yaqoob, who was a BJP backed member of Adyar GP was attacked near his village by a gang at around 9 pm on Friday.

In spite of sustaining serious injuries, he managed to return home. 

He then hired an auto-rickshaw and went to Highland Hospital along with his son. 

However, he breathed his last there without responding to any treatment.

According to sources, the victim knew one of the assistants.

It is suspected that political or personal rivalry might be the reason for the attack. However the exact motto behind the attack is not yet known. 

A case has been registered in Kankanady Rural police station.

Mangaluru, Apr 23: An astronomical phenomenon, ‘Zero Shadow Day', will be observed in Mangaluru on April 24 and in Udupi on April 25. 

According to a press release from Poornaprajna Amateur Astronomers’ Club, the wonder will commence and people will see their shadows disappear for a few moments at 12:28 pm.

The phenomenon is called as Zero Shadow Day. If a person takes a candle in a dark room and use it to create a shadow of one’s palm on the wall, the hand will cast shadow on the wall as one moves the hand. But when one places the palm on the wall, there will be no shadow.

In the phenomenon, the sun at these times shines exactly above the heads on these days. In astronomy, this point is called as Zenith. The point in the sky directly above an observer at any given location. So it is quite clear now that on Zero Shadow Day, the sun passes through the Zenith as a result of which, all objects will have minimal or no shadow if they are on the ground.

The reason for this happens on some specific days is concerned with astronomy. The earth spins around on its own axis and causes days and nights. It also revolves around the sun causing a year. But the seasons are caused because the axis is tilted at an angle of 23.5 degrees. It is because of this tilt that the sun rises every day in the east gradually moving towards the north till June 21st and then slowly proceeding towards the south till December 21st every year. “We call these days solstice. This means the sun shines between the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn every day passing by the equator on the days we call equinox,” the release stated.

As the earth moves around the sun and revolves on its own axis, for all the people between Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn, the Sun at noon moves father and closer to the zenith passing through zenith twice causing two Zero Shadow Days per year. People at Mangaluru will observe this on April 24 and August 18 every year and People in Udupi will observe this on April 25 and August 17 every year.

Places with same latitudes will observe the same days of Zero Shadow but the time would vary with longitude. For example, people of Bengaluru as they share the latitude with Mangaluru will also observe it on April 24. While the people of Mangaluru will observe their shadows disappear at 12.28pm, people of Bengaluru will observe this at 12:17pm. Places like Moodabidri, Bantwal, Sakleshpur and Hassan will also observe Zero Shadow on April 24.

Places like Brahmavar, Karkala, Sringeri, Kudremukha, Chikkamagaluru will observe the Zero Shadow Day on the same day as Udupi on April 25.