Hinduism allows Hadiya’s father to kill her and go to jail: Saffron leader

Mangaluru, Feb 21: The local units of Vishva Hindu Parishad and Bajrang Dal today staged a protest in the city against Amulya Leona, who raised pro-Pakistan slogans yesterday in Bangaluru.

Amulya is the daughter of Wazi Noronha, a former leader of minority of wing of BJP in Koppa taluk of Chikkamagaluru district. He had worked in support of hardline BJP leader and Udupi-Chickmagaluru MP Shobha Karandlaje, and D N Jeevaraj, who had represented Sringeri constituency last time.

The 19-year-old B.A. student was arrested on sedition charge after she raised pro-Pakistan slogans to embarrass the organisers of a peaceful protest against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act in Bengaluru.

Demanding stringent action against Amulya, a group of activist of VHP and Bajrang Dal staged protest at Kadri Mallikatte Circle in the city. Speaking on the occasion, M B Puranik and Sharan Pumpwell demanded NIA probe into the incident.

Also Read: Amulya Leona — a Naxal or Sangh Parivar stooge?

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Apr 12: The board and management of troubled NMC Healthcare should be held accountable for the financial irregularities, said Abdulaziz Al Ghurair, chairman of the UAE Banks Federation.

"Banks have dealt with the exposure professionally and they lent to a company which was listed on FTSE-100 index with world-class regulator and the world's largest audit firm doing their audit. Even if they present their balance sheet today, people will still lend to them. This is a world-class fraud and the management and board members should be held accountable. We should have a different track to handle this company. It is not a normal track that we can go," Al Ghurair said during a virtual press conference on Sunday.

It is estimated that the more than 80 local, regional and international banks have exposure to healthcare firm. The UAE bourses had asked all the listed companies in the UAE to announce their exposure. The UAE banks last week announced nearly Dh10 billion exposure to NMC Healthcare, which is owned by the billionaire BR Shetty.

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank has the highest exposure to NMC at Dh3 billion. Dubai Islamic Bank and its subsidiary Noor Bank announced Dh2 billion exposure while Emirates NBD and its Shariah-compliant unit Emirates Islamic Bank revealed Dh747.34 million exposure. Ajman Bank has Dh151.8 million while Al Salam Bank pegged its exposure at Dh161.5 million. All these lenders revealed their exposure for the first time on Sunday.

Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank said it had extended Dh1.07 billion in financing to NMC Healthcare, and an additional Dh113.67 million exposure to Islamic bonds issued by NMC.National Bank of Fujairah pegged its exposure to NMC at Dh289.1 million, while Sharjah-based United Arab Bank said its exposure was Dh135.3 million.

NMC recently revised its debt position to $6.6 billion, well above earlier estimates.

London's High Court last week placed hospital operator NMC Health into administration, on the application of Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

"I know leading bank in UAE have already legal guardian of the company so now management cannot hide anything. The new team will manage and discover what happened," said Al Ghurair.