Hindus, Muslims should fight poverty, not each other: PM Modi

New Delhi, Mar 5: The primary classes of all schools in the national capital will remain closed till March 31 to prevent a possibility of spread of coronavirus, Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia announced on Thursday.

According to Directorate of Education (DoE) officials, while elaborate guidelines have been issued about preventive measures for coronavirus, students of nursery and primary classes are too young to understand the risk, making them more prone to infectious diseases.

Sisodia, who also holds the education portfolio, tweeted, "As a precautionary measure to prevent the possibility of spread of COVID-19 amongst our children, Delhi Government has directed the immediate closure of all primary schools (Govt/ aided/ private/MCD/NDMC) till 31/3/20(sic)."

A senior DoE official said, "Elaborate guidelines have already been issued. However, students of nursery and primary classes are too young to understand the risks associated with COVID-19. Thus they are more prone to infectious diseases and mingle around with classmates more often."

"It will be good if they are trained in the do's and dont's under the care and supervision of their parents at home. However, students of classes other than primary will continue to come to schools or examination centres for writing their examination as per schedule. The teaching, as well as non-teaching staff, will also attend regular school," the official said.

As of now, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country stands at 30, including 16 Italian tourists. The figure includes the first three cases reported from Kerala last month who have already been discharged following recovery.

Alerted by the coronavirus case reported in Delhi-NCR, schools in the region have sent out advisories to parents suggesting that they do not send their wards to attend classes even in case of mild cough or cold, and saying that they may declare holidays if the need arises. A few schools have announced already holidays and others have advanced their spring break.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Kochi, Apr 16: A middle-aged man carrying his ailing father on his shoulders walked close to one-kilometre in Kerala’s Punalur when the autorickshaw he was driving was allegedly stopped by the police over the ongoing lockdown. He was bringing back his father from the hospital after he was discharged on Wednesday.

In a video that has gone viral on social media, the man can be seen carrying his bare-bodied father on the shoulders and struggling to handle the weight while a woman carrying the hospital documents, prescriptions and other items, is running along with him.

The incident took place in Punalur town of Kollam district.

The 65-year-old man, a native of Kulathupuzha, was released from the Punalur Taluk Hospital and his son was taking him home when he was stopped on the road. The man has alleged that even after he produced hospital documents, the police refused to let him pass with the autorickshaw.

The vehicle was stopped about a kilometre from their house in the middle of a traffic jam and the family had to walk the rest of the path. He said even after he told the police and showed papers from hospital he was not allowed to go.

After the video went viral in Kerala, the state human rights commission took suo motu cognizance of the incident.

The nationwide lockdown has prevented all non-essential movement in the public space while medical emergencies have been allowed. The extended lockdown will now continue till May 3.

According to the police, the vehicle did not have the patient when it was stopped. The driver was asked to show a declaration document.

He stepped out of the vehicle and walked to the hospital which was 200 metres from the checkpoint and returned carrying his father on the back, said the police.