Hindustan a country of Hindus but it doesn't exclude others: RSS chief

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

Bengaluru: Karnataka chief minister BS Yediyurappa on Tuesday shuffled the portfolios of six newly inducted ministers after they expressed unhappiness about the departments allocated to them barely 24 hours ago.

Three ministers — BC Patil, Anand Singh and K Gopalaiah — received new responsibilities and as many — Shivaram Hebbar, Srimanth Patil and Byrathi Basavaraj — have been saddled with more.

Sources said the six ministers met the CM late Monday night and said they were not happy with the portfolios handed to them. They reportedly threatened not to assume office until their demands were met, forcing the CM to effect the changes early Tuesday.

BC Patil is now vested with agriculture (he had been given forest), Anand Singh forest, environment and ecology (earlier food and civil supplies) and Gopalaiah food and civil supplies (instead of small-scale industries). BC Patil said, “I’m happy I can now be with farmers.” Shivaram Hebbar has been given the additional responsibility of sugar along with labour allocated to him on Monday.

Allocation of the forest portfolio to Anand Singh has raised eyebrows as the Vijayanagara MLA had been arrested in 2013 and 2015 in cases of illegal mining and illegal transportation of mining ore. Singh owned SB Mineral in Ballari and the Lokayukta had charged him with transporting 17,086 tonnes of iron ore without permission or valid licence. He was acquitted in a Belikeri iron ore export case due to lack of evidence.

Byrathi Basvaraj, who has been given the urban development ministry, will also handle Karnataka Urban Water Supply and Drainage Board and Karnataka Urban Infrastructure Development and Finance Corporation.

Srimanth Patil has received minority welfare department apart from textile.

The exercise of portfolio shuffling is likely to continue with minister K Sudhakar reportedly unhappy with medical education.

In another embarrassment to the CM, Mahesh Kumathalli on Tuesday refused to take over as chairman of the Mysore Sales International Ltd, saying he wants to be a minister. BJP MLA Basanagouda Patil Yatnal urged Yediyurappa to induct Kumathalli into the cabinet in line with the promise made to him when he joined the BJP before bypolls. “The CM must keep his word,” he said.

Bengaluru, May 14: Reformed underworld don Muthappa Rai, who was battling cancer for the past year, was said to be in a critical condition at Manipal Hospital in Bengaluru, late Wednesday night. Doctors said he was on life-support at the time of going to press. Rai (68), realtor, entrepreneur and founder of pro-Kannada organisation Jaya Karnataka, had retired from public life after he was diagnosed with cancer. He was part of an ongoing investigation into gangster Ravi Pujari, who was extradited from Senegal recently.

Born in Puttur into a Bunt family, he started out as a bank employee in Bengaluru, and later ran a live band restaurant. In 1994, he was shot in a Bengaluru court by a man dressed as a lawyer, after which he was bedridden for a couple of years.

Rai Moved to Dubai in 1996. He was deported from the UAE to India in 2002, and was arrested in Bengaluru when HT Sangliana was the police commissioner. Both Rai and Pujari had allegedly been associated with underworld don Dawood Ibrahim.