Hindustan a country of Hindus but it doesn't exclude others: RSS chief

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Bengaluru, Jun 3: Deputy Chief Minister CN Ashwath Narayan on Tuesday invited investors in the Electronics System and Design Manufacturing (ESDM) sector to Karnataka, as the state contributes 64 per cent to the sector's total exports from the nation.

During a video conference organised by Invest India for a few select states with leading ESDM players across the globe, Narayan said, "We are the largest chip design hub and home to 70 per cent of India's chip designers."

Karnataka has introduced industry-friendly policies from the beginning and it continues to be the leader in attracting technology-specific investments, he added.

"Karnataka has an estimated GSDP of almost USD 220 billion. We were the first to come out with IT, BT, ESDM, and AVGC (Animation, Visual Effects, Gaming, and Comics) policies to give a push to the growth of the technology sectors and innovation. We also have vibrant automobiles, agro, aerospace, textile and garment, and heavy engineering industries," Narayan explained.

"We have created sector-specific SEZs for key industries such as IT, biotechnology and engineering, food processing and aerospace,'' he said.

However, the state government is planning ahead as it has initiated talks with other countries.

"We have held multiple consultations with the private sector to seek inputs for returning to business as we ease the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. We are also initiating dialogue with countries across the globe to understand future plans for their companies in the post COVID era and discuss how the Karnataka government can support that," the Deputy Chief Minister stated.

"Karnataka has attracted cumulative FDI inflows in the state from 2000 to 2019 which were recorded at USD 42.3 billion," he said.

Referring to the Karnataka ESDM policy 2017-2022, Narayan further said, "We aim to stimulate the growth of 2,000 ESDM start-ups during the policy period and create 20 lakh new jobs by 2025.