HJV leader Jagadish Karanth arrested over communal remarks against Puttur cop

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

Bengaluru, Jul 11: Amidst the mounting number of covid-19 cases, Karnataka is witnessing another disturbing trend of increasing number of people ending their life. After the lockdown was relaxed, the state saw a worrying jump in the number of suicides.

According to statistics, as many as 2,211 suicide cases have been registered in just two months. The number of suicides rose by 23% in May to 1,127, and by another 18% in June to 1,084, from an average of 912 suicides in the first three months of the year. 

In April, however, the number nearly halved to 477. But April was also the month during which the lockdown (announced on March 24) was complete, and everyone was at home -- which, experts say, could have prevented people with suicidal tendencies from taking their own lives.

Shockingly, number of teenagers including school children committing suicide also increased in the state in past couple of months.

With the pandemic still accelerating and impacting people in multiple ways, the World Health Organisation has urged people to pay greater attention to mental health and suicide prevention. 

Dr Poonam Khetrapal Singh, Regional Director, World Health Organisation (WHO), South-East Asia Region, said stigma related to Covid-19 infection may lead to feelings of isolation and depression. Another precipitating factor impacting mental health amidst Covid-19 could be domestic violence, which is reported to have increased globally as several countries imposed lockdowns, she said.

“Hitting lives and livelihoods, the pandemic is causing fear, anxiety, depression and stress among people. Social distancing, isolation and coping with perpetually evolving and changing information about the virus has both triggered and aggravated existing and pre-existing mental health conditions, which need urgent attention,” she said.

Dr H Chandrashekar, professor and head of the department of psychiatry at Victoria Hospital, said reasons for suicide are always multi-factored, combined, cumulative, unresolving and interrelated.

“There is grief everywhere now due to deaths related to Covid-19, and it may have an adverse effect on some. But people should be watchful of their family members, especially those who are in depression and have a history of suicide attempts. One should never ignore signs, like when someone says they feel like ending their life. They should not be left alone, and unconditional support needs to be given. Also, objects that could be used to commit suicide must be kept away from them,” Dr Chandrashekar said.

Mangaluru, July 24: Karnataka's Dakshina Kannada district reported 8 new Covid-19 deaths in the last two days taking the toll to over 100. The district has recorded 107 Covid-19 deaths till now.

Deputy Commissioner Sindhu B Rupesh on Friday said a 44-year-old man from Mangaluru with the symptoms of respiratory failure, ARDS, AKI MODS hypertension, was admitted to a private hospital on July 19 and died on July 22. His throat swab tested positive for Covid-19 on Friday.

Another 56-year-old man from Mangaluru, who died on July 23, was suffering from urinary tract infection, MODS-septic shock, type II diabetes mellitus, hypothyroidism, systematic hypertension and IHD and had tested positive for Covid-19.

Mangaluru saw two more deaths -- a 75-year-old woman suffering from COPD with type 2 respiratory failure and multi-organ dysfunction syndrome with septic shock and a 65-year-old woman, who was suffering from BP and diabetes and admitted to a private hospital on July 13 and died on July 23.

A 61-year-old woman from Puttur, who was suffering from diabetes mellitus and hypertension and was undergoing treatment at a private hospital, died on July 23.

A 67-year-old man from Bhadravathi in Shivamogga, who was admitted to Wenlock Hospital on July 13 and was suffering from pneumonia and respiratory infection, died on July 23. He too tested positive for Covid-19.

Some of the other deaths were those of -- a 42-year-old man from Bantwal suffering from type 1 respiratory failure, urosepsis and uncontrolled type 2 diabetes and a 67-year-old man from Bhadravathi suffering from acute myocardial infarction, uncontrolled type 2 diabetes and systematic hypertension, Both died at private hospitals on July 23.

180 fresh cases

The Covid-19 graph slightly moved downward with the recording of 180 fresh cases, including four police personnel from Puttur police station. Of the positive cases, 56 are the primary contacts of the infected persons, 68 are suffering from Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) and 10 with the symptoms of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI).

The contacts of 45 persons who tested positive are being traced. One person with international travel history has also tested positive.

A total of 125 persons recovered and were discharged from hospitals, thus taking the tally of the total discharges to 1987.