I am a Hindu first, MP later, Ram Mandir is my priority: Nalin Kumar Kateel

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

New Delhi, Jan 20: Surging inflation and slowing growth are raising serious concerns about the future growth prospects of the economy and as a remedial measure the government should resolve supply-side hurdles and ensure more stringent governance norms, a report said on Monday.

According to the Dun and Bradstreet Economy forecast, even though the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) turned positive in November 2019, it is likely to remain subdued.

"Slowdown in consumption and investment along with high inflationary pressures, geopolitical issues and uncertainty over the recovery of the economic growth are likely to keep IIP subdued," the report noted.

Dun and Bradstreet expect IIP to remain around 1.5-2.0 percent during December 2019.

As per government data, industrial output grew 1.8 percent in November, turning positive after three months of contraction, on account of growth in the manufacturing sector.

On the price front, uneven rainfall along with floods in many states and geopolitical issues have led to a surge in headline inflation even as demand remains muted.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December rose to about five-and-half year high of 7.35 percent from 5.54 percent in November, mainly driven by high vegetable prices.

"The sharp rise in inflation has constrained monetary policy stimulus while revenue shortfall has placed limits on the government expenditure," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

According to Singh, growth-supporting measures and deceleration in growth are likely to cause slippage in fiscal deficit target by a wider margin.

"The government should focus on taking small steps to address the slowdown; in particular, resolve the supply-side hurdles and ensure more stringent governance norms," Singh said.

Unless these concerns are addressed through a comprehensive policy framework, it will not be easy for India to clock a sustainable growth rate to become a USD 5 trillion economy, he added.

New Delhi, May 12: Minorities are "flourishing" in India and have been an equal partner in development without discrimination under the Modi government, Union Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi said on Tuesday, dismissing allegations of Islamophobia as an attempt to defame the country.

The "Narendra Modi phobia club” has been unable to digest the inclusive growth under the prime minister and is engaged in a "nefarious campaign" in India and abroad through fake propaganda alleging "intolerance, communalism and discrimination" against minorities in India, Naqvi said.

In a blog titled "Islamophobia -- Bogey of Bogus Bashing Brigade", the minority affairs minister argued that the "Modi phobia club" is playing the “Islamophobia card" to harm the pluralistic fabric of India, but will not succeed.

Naqvi's remarks come days after a wave of angry reactions on Twitter by citizens and rights activists from various Arab countries following allegations that Muslims are being blamed for spreading COVID-19 in parts of India.

Also, the 57-member prominent international Mulim grouping, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, recently accused India of "Islamophobia".

India has dismissed all such allegations.

"Minorities in India are flourishing equally with all the citizens with a sense of equality, security and prosperity. Misinformation against such a gracious and tolerant country and its effective leadership is nothing but the height of ignorance and mental bankruptcy," Naqvi said.

He claimed that no riot took place in last 5 years of the Modi government and it was after "nefarious preaching" by those who were irked by this that the Delhi riots happened.

Naqvi said the women who sat on protests at Shaheen Bagh cannot be termed "anti-nationals" but they had been "misguided by the bogus bashing brigade”.

This brigade pushed these women on a path which had an “entry gate” but no “exit gate”, the minister said.

This was a “calculated conspiracy” by the brigade that wants to defame and disgrace Modi and India, Naqvi said.

He also argued that for the "first time since Independence", India has forged close and strong ties with nearly all Islamic nations and countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Afghanistan, Russia, Palestine, Mauritius and the Maldives have conferred Modi with their highest civilian awards.

"The United Nations has also conferred Narendra Modi with the prestigious 'Champions of the Earth Award'. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's global acceptance and popularity doesn't need any certificate," Naqvi said.

The Modi government never planned development on the basis of Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Christians or on region and caste, and its priority has been the poor and deprived, Naqvi said, adding that still some people with a “prejudiced mindset” are trying to defame India by raising the bogey of Islamophobia.

There is not a single incident of discrimination against any section of the society, including minorities under the Modi government, the minister asserted.

All sections, including minorities, are strongly moving forward on the path of “development with dignity” under the Modi government, he said.

When the challenges due to the coronavirus were in initial stages across the world in early January and several countries, including Pakistan, had not taken care of their people abroad, it was the Modi government that brought back thousands of Indians stranded in Wuhan (China), Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and other countries, Naqvi said, adding that a majority of these people were Muslims.

In the recent Vande Bharat Mission also, the Indian government is bringing back thousands of Indians from countries such as the Maldives, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar and other countries which include a large number of Muslims, he pointed out.

"Strong eternal commitment of my country will defeat and demolish the fake and fabricated Islamophobia card of the 'India bashing brigade'," Naqvi said in his blog.