I think I should stay away from this debate: Modi on judicial crisis

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

New Delhi, 17: Tensions on the Indo-China border have spiked to the highest since 1962 after over 20 troops, including an Indian commanding officer, were killed in the face-off in Galwan valley that has seen a six-week long standoff underway with the Peoples Liberation Army.

The Army said that the soldiers – including the Commanding Officer of 16 Bihar regiment in charge of the area – died while a `de-escalation process’ was underway. Sources said that this death toll could rise up as some soldiers are currently not accounted for after PLA troops attacked with spiked sticks and stones in the Galwan valley.

Chinese side also has casualties but the number is still not known. The Indian death toll is perhaps the worst single day loss in decades and has come at a time when thousands of troops are forward deployed in Eastern Ladakh.

ET was the first to report on May 12 about a massive troop build up in the Galwan valley, which is an old flashpoint that had seen action in the 1962 war as well.

There have been reports of casualties on the Chinese side in the clash but numbers are currently not available. Worryingly, information from the ground suggests that several Indian soldiers, including four officers, are missing and could have been taken captive by a vastly larger Chinese force. Their status is still not known.

“During the de-escalation process underway in the Galwan Valley, a violent face-off took place yesterday night with casualties. The loss of lives on the Indian side includes an officer and two soldiers. Senior military officials of the two sides are currently meeting at the venue to defuse the situation,” an Indian Army statement reads.

The Ministry of External Affairs said that the clash occurred when the Chinese side violated the LAC. “On the late-evening and night of 15th June, 2020 a violent face-off happened as a result of an attempt by the Chinese side to unilaterally change the status quo there. Both sides suffered casualties that could have been avoided had the agreement at the higher level been scrupulously followed by the Chinese side,” a statement reads.

The loss of the Commanding Officer is especially devastating and he had been directly involved in de-escalation talks with the Chinese side, including one hours before the clash took place. Sources said that the talks on Monday morning had led to an agreement for Chinese forces to withdraw from Indian territory as part of the disengagement.

According to one version, the CO had gone to the standoff point with a party of 50 men to check if the Chinese had retreated as promised. As the Indian side proceeded to demolish and burn illegal Chinese structures on its side of the LAC, including an observation post constructed on the South bank of the river, a fresh stand off took place as a large force of Chinese troops returned back.

Sources said that a Chinese force in excess of 250 quickly assembled near Patrol Point 14 and were physically stopped by Indian soldiers from entering Indian territory. Soldiers from both sides did not use firearms but the Chinese soldiers carried spiked sticks to attack.

Given the terrain of the region, a part of the standoff and clash took place in the middle of the Galwan river that is currently flowing at full spate, leading to high casualties as injured soldiers got swept away. Indian soldiers have to cross the Galwan river at atleast five points to reach PP 14, which marks the LAC.

Chinese media reports on Tuesday quoted the spokesperson from its Western Theatre Command as laying claim over the Galwan valley region and blaming the Indian side for the clash. Reports quoted Col Zhang Shuili as saying that India has violated the consensus made during Army commander level talks.

As reported, Galwan river area has a painful history with China, with Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers surrounding a freshly set up Indian Army post in July 1962, in what would be one of the early triggers to the Sino-Indian war. At an Army post that was overrun at Galwan, 33 Indian soldiers were killed and several dozen taken captive in 1962.

In the past, the Doklam crisis in 2017 saw tensions building up along the Pangong Tso lake as well with soldiers engaging in a fight with sticks and stones. However, the Eastern Ladakh standoff is of a much more serious nature, with over 6000 Chinese troops lined up with tanks and artillery, faced off with a larger Indian forces. Troop build up has also been reported across the borders in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal.

New Delhi, Jul 25: India reported a spike of 48,916 coronavirus cases on Saturday, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

The total COVID-19 positive cases stand at 13,36,861 including 4,56,071 active cases, 8,49,431 cured/discharged/migrated. With 757 deaths in the last 24 hours, the cumulative toll reached 31,358.

Maharashtra has reported 3,57,117 coronavirus cases, the highest among states and Union Territories in the country.

A total of 1,99,749 cases have been reported from Tamil Nadu till now, while Delhi has recorded a total of 1,28,389 coronavirus cases.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), 4,20,898 samples were tested for coronavirus on Friday and overall 1,58,49,068 samples have been tested so far.