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New Delhi, May 14: India may witness the death of additional 1.2-6 lakh children over the next one year from preventable causes as a consequence to the disruption in regular health services due to the COVID-19 pandemic, UNICEF has warned.

The warning comes from a new study that brackets India with nine other nations from Asia and Africa that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths as a consequence to the pandemic.

These potential child deaths will be in addition to the 2.5 million children who already die before their fifth birthday every six months in the 118 countries included in the study.

The estimate is based on an analysis by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health published in the Lancet.  

This means the global mortality rate of children dying before their fifth birthday, one of the key progress indicators in all of the global development, could potentially increase for the first time since 1960 when the data was first collected.

There were 1.04 million under-5 deaths in India in 2017, of which nearly 50% (0.57 million) were neonatal deaths. The highest number of under-5 deaths was in Uttar Pradesh (312,800 which included 165,800 neonatal deaths) and Bihar (141,500 which included 75,300 neonatal deaths).

The researchers looked at three scenarios, factoring in parameters like reduction in workforce, supplies and access to healthcare for services like family planning, antenatal care, childbirth care, postnatal care, vaccination and preventive care for early childhood. The effects are modelled for a period of three months, six months and 12 months.  

In scenario-1 marked by 10-18% reduction of coverage of all the services, the number of additional children deaths could be in the range of 30,000 plus over three months, more than 60,000 over six months and above 120,000 over the next 12 months.

Coronavirus India update: State-wise total number of confirmed cases, deaths on May 13

The numbers sharply rose to nearly 55,000; 109,000 and 219,000 respectively for scenario-2, which was associated with an 18-28% drop in all the regular services.

But in the worst-case scenario in which 40-50% of the services are not available, the number of additional deaths ballooned to 1.5 lakhs in the three months in the short-range to nearly six lakhs over a year.

The ten countries that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths are Bangladesh, Brazil, Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda and Tanzania.

In countries with already weak health systems, COVID-19 is causing disruptions in medical supply chains and straining financial and human resources.

Visits to health care centres are declining due to lockdowns, curfews and transport disruptions, and due to the fear of infection among the communities. Such disruptions could result in potentially devastating increases in maternal and child deaths, the UN agency warned.

Jan 23: Hundreds of Central Americans trying to reach the United States were stuck at the Mexico-Guatemala border on Wednesday after the Mexican government beefed up security to meet US demands to contain migrant flows.

Under sustained pressure from President Donald Trump, Mexico's government has adopted tougher measures to reduce the number of people heading towards the U.S. border.

Migrants in Tecun Uman, on the Guatemalan side of the border, were taken by surprise.

"We thought we'd be allowed through just like with the October caravan when they reached Tijuana," said Honduran migrant Ritzy Anabel, who did not give her surname.

"People from Mexico and Guatemala treated them well. But now it's changed because Mexicans don't want (us) to enter."

Many Central Americans migrants heading north are fleeing economic hardship and violence at home. A large caravan of migrants crossed into Mexico and went north in October 2018. Migrants crossing into Mexico earlier this week faced tear gas from security forces, who delivered a firmer response than in previous mass movements at the border.

Even so, about 1,000 migrants, most of them from Honduras, managed to reach Mexican soil on Tuesday. Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said several hundred of the new arrivals were immediately deported on planes and buses.

On Wednesday, Mexican authorities said that 460 Honduran migrants were deported throughout the day. Other migrants from the group, including families traveling with children, were pondering their next moves.

Honduran Carlos Amador said that while some of his compatriots were returning home, others were hoping for positive news.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to punish Mexico and Central American countries if they fail to clamp down on the migrant flows. That has resulted in a series of agreements aimed at delivering on Trump's campaign promises to curb immigration.

Department of Homeland Security Acting Secretary Chad Wolf called the measures put in place by the Mexican National Guard "effective", adding that dozens of his personnel was on the ground in Central America assisting local immigration and security officials. Trump tweeted: "Sorry, if you come you will be immediately sent back!"

Paris, Jun 13: The coronavirus pandemic has killed 425,000 people since it emerged in China late last year, according to an AFP tally of official sources at 0130 GMT on Saturday.

A total of 425,282 deaths have now been recorded from 7,632,517 cases.

Europe has registered 186,843 deaths from 2,363,538 cases, but the epidemic is progressing most rapidly in Latin America, where there have been a total of 76,343 deaths recorded from 1,569,938 cases.

The United States remains the country with the most recorded deaths at 114,643, ahead of Brazil which on Friday became the second worst-hit nation with 41,828 deaths. Britain is next with 41,481 deaths, followed by Italy (34,223) and France (29,374).