Illegal migrants are SP, BSP vote bank: Amit Shah

New Delhi, May 24: India witnessed the biggest ever spike of 6,767 positive cases in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of COVID-19 cases to 1,31,868, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

As many as 147 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours, taking the death toll to 3,867.
Out of the total number of cases, 73,560 are active and 54,440 have been cured/discharged and one migrated.

Maharashtra continues to remain the worst-affected state with 47,190 COVID-19 cases. It is followed by Tamil Nadu (15,512), Gujarat (13,664), and Delhi (12,910).

The nationwide lockdown imposed as a precautionary measure to contain the spread of COVID-19 has been extended till May 31.

Bengaluru, Mar 23: Indian stocks plunged over 9% on Monday, as the rapidly spreading coronavirus pandemic sent major states including the country's capital into a lockdown amid increasing fears that outbreak could bring world economies to a grinding halt.

The NSE Nifty 50 index slipped 9.17% to 7,937.75 by 0408 GMT, while the S&P BSE Sensex was 9.42% lower at 27,093.24.

Over the weekend in India, the virus drove several companies to shut operations and the government sent states into lockdowns, bringing normal life to a grinding halt.

"Panic has gone up domestically because of the lockdown situation," said Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services.

"There is fear that the situation will not be brought under control soon."

The rupee hit a fresh record low of 76.05 against the dollar, as a flight into cash and worries about tightening liquidity boosted demand for the world's reserve currency.

Meanwhile, global markets crumbled, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan sliding nearly 4% as the global death toll climbed to over 14,000, further battering economic activity, and raising fears of a global recession.

After market hours on Friday, the Securities and Exchange Board of India halved position limits for certain stock futures, restricted short-selling of index derivatives and raised margin rates for some shares to curb "abnormally high" volatility amid the pandemic.

In domestic trading, the Nifty PSU Bank Index plunged 8%, while the Nifty bank index crashed nearly 10%.

The Nifty Auto Index slid 9% after several carmakers over the weekend suspended production due to the virus.

From March through May, around 1 crore migrant workers fled India’s megacities, afraid to be unemployed, hungry and far from family during the world’s biggest anti-Covid-19 lockdown.

Now, as Asia’s third-largest economy slowly reopens, the effects of that massive relocation are rippling across the country. Urban industries don’t have enough workers to get back to capacity, and rural states worry that without the flow of remittances from the city, already poor families will be even worse off -- and a bigger strain on state coffers.

Meanwhile, migrant workers aren’t expected to return to the cities as long as the virus is spreading and work is uncertain. States are rolling out stimulus programs, but India’s economy is hurtling for its first contraction in more than 40 years, and without enough jobs, a volatile political climate gets more so.

“This will be a huge economic shock, especially for households of short-term, cyclical migrants, who tend to come from vulnerable, poor and low-caste and tribal backgrounds,” said Varun Aggarwal, a founder of India Migration Now, a research and advocacy group based in Mumbai.

In the first 15 days of India’s lockdown, domestic remittances dropped by 90%, according to Rishi Gupta, chief executive officer of Mumbai-based Fino Paytech Ltd., which operates the country’s biggest payments bank.

By the end of May, remittances were back to around 1750 rupees ($23), about half the pre-Covid average. Gupta’s not sure how soon it’ll fully recover. “Migrants are in no hurry to come back,” Gupta said. “They’re saying that they’re not thinking of going back at all.”

If workers stay in their home states long term, policymakers will have more than remittances to worry about. If consumption falls and the new surplus of labor drives wages down, Agarwal said, “there will also be a second-order shock to the local economy. Overall, not looking good.”

India announced a $277 billion stimulus package in May and followed it up with a $7 billion program aimed at creating jobs for 125 days for migrants in villages across 116 districts. Separately, local authorities are also looking for solutions.

Officials in Bihar have identified 2,500 acres of land that could be made available to investors, said Sushil Modi, deputy chief minister of Bihar, a state in east India. “We can use this crisis as an opportunity to speed up reforms,” he said.

The investors haven’t materialised yet, and in the meanwhile, state governments are relying on the national cash-for-work program that guarantees 100 days worth of wages per household.

Skilled workers don’t want to do manual labor offered through the program, and even if they did, says Amitabh Kundu of RIS, many think of it as beneath their station. “There will be an increase in social tensions,” he predicts. “Caste may again start playing a role. It’s absolute chaos.”

For skilled workers, initiatives vary:

* Uttar Pradesh, which received 3.2 million people, is compiling lists of skilled workers who need employment and trying to place them with local manufacturing and real estate industry associations. So far, the government says, it’s placed 300,000 people with construction and real estate firms.

* Bihar has placed returners in state-run infrastructure projects and hired others to stitch uniforms and make furniture for government-run schools, even as they waited in quarantine centres, said Pratyay Amrit, head of the state’s disaster management department.

* The eastern state of Odisha announced an urban wage employment program aimed at putting as many as 450,000 day labourers to work through September. Some 25,000 people have been employed, so far, under the scheme, G. Mathivathanan, principal secretary for housing and urban development said.

Attracting Investments

It’s not clear any of this will be enough to make a dent, says Ravi Srivastava, professor at New Delhi-based Institute of Human Development, adding that the states don’t have much of a track record on economic development.

“It was the failure of these states to improve governance and put development plans in place that led to the out-migration in the first place,” he said.

But officials and workers’ rights advocates see opportunity. Uttar Pradesh has established liaisons to encourage companies from the US, Japan and South Korea to establish manufacturing in the state. There and in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the government has made labour laws more friendly to employers, making it easier to hire and fire workers.

Modi, the minister from Bihar, said the migration may also give workers--historically a disenfranchised group--new power, particularly as urban centres struggle. “The way industries treated workers during the lockdown -- didn’t pay them, the living conditions were poor -- now these industries will realize the value of this force,” Modi said.

“In the days to come, labour will emerge as a force that can’t be ignored anymore,” he added. “That’s the new normal. We will work out how to ensure dignity, rights to our people who are going to work in other states.”

Bihar is due for elections by November, a vote that could be an early test of the mass migration’s political consequences. The state is currently governed by a coalition that includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. Amitabh Kundu, a fellow at the Research and Information System for Developing Countries, a New Delhi-based government think-tank, said migrant workers are likely to be angry voters.

“Chief ministers are telling these migrants that they will not have to go back for work,” he said. “But their capacity to do something miraculous in the next four to five months is doubtful. If they can retain even one-fourth of the migrants, I would call it a success.”