IMF: Gulf economy recovering but faces oil volatility

Agencies
November 13, 2018

Dubai, Nov 13: Economic growth in the energy-rich Gulf will recover in 2018 from a contraction last year but remains vulnerable to volatility in crude oil prices, the IMF forecast on Tuesday.

The global lender predicted that an overall energy price recovery from 2015-2016 lows would spur the economies of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council to grow by 2.4 percent in 2018 and 3.0 percent in 2019, after a contraction of 0.4 percent last year.

Grouping Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the GCC states together pump over 17 million barrels per day and depend heavily on crude revenues.

But “the growth outlook for oil exporters remains subject to significant uncertainty about the future path of oil prices,” the IMF said in its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

After their earlier extended recovery, oil prices have shed a fifth of their value in just one month, with Brent crude trading near its lowest price since April.

Growth in non-GCC oil exporters in MENA, which includes Iran, Iraq, Algeria and Libya, is projected to slow to 0.3 percent in 2018, from three percent the previous year, and pick up modestly to 0.9 percent in 2019, the IMF said.

“This largely reflects the expected impact of the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran, which is likely to reduce Iranian oil production and exports significantly over the next two years at least,” the IMF said.

It projected Iran’s economy to shrink by 1.6 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2019.

For oil-importing countries in MENA, growth is expected to continue at a modest pace of 4.5 percent in 2018, before dropping back to four percent next year, the IMF said.

This level of growth is not sufficient to create the required jobs for a region marred by instability and civil strife, it said.

Oil revenues for MENA exporters have increased by about $260 billion over the period 2016 to 2018.

This has mostly been due to a price rise generated by production cuts in nations belonging to OPEC, as well as non-OPEC producers.

The current account balance will turn from a deficit into a surplus and overall budget shortfalls will decline, the lender said.

The IMF urged GCC states to continue with and expand reforms, welcoming the imposition of value-added tax by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

It also called on GCC countries to impose corporate and personal income tax in order to diversify their revenue streams.

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Agencies
May 7,2020

Dubai, May 7: Indians in the UAE have voiced scepticism about a "massive" operation announced by New Delhi to bring home some of the hundreds of thousands of nationals stranded by coronavirus restrictions.

"It is just propaganda," said Ishan, an Indian expatriate in Dubai, one of seven emirates in the UAE and long a magnet for foreign workers.

He was reacting to his government's announcement this week that it would deploy passenger jets and naval ships to bring home citizens stuck in a host of countries.

India's consulate in Dubai said it received about 200,000 requests from nationals seeking repatriation -- mostly workers who have lost their jobs in the pandemic.

One vessel was heading to the UAE, India's government said, while two flights were scheduled to depart the UAE for India on Thursday.

But the plans drew scorn from Ishan, who was a manager at a luxury services company before he was made redundant last month.

"It's like throwing a dog a bone," the 35-year-old complained on Wednesday, dismissing the Indian government's efforts as a drop in the ocean.

"Let's say they repatriate 400 people on the first day, and about 5,000 people in 10 days, what difference has it made?"

India banned all incoming commercial flights in late March as it imposed one of the world's strictest lockdowns to tackle the spread of coronavirus.

The UAE is home to a 3.3-million-strong Indian community, who make up around 30 per cent of the Gulf state's population.

To the anger of some Indian expatriates, the evacuees will have to pay for their passage home and spend two weeks in quarantine on arrival.

"We are upset over the failure of our government," Ishan said. "What about the people with no money? How are you helping them?"

The Indian consulate could not be reached for comment.

Ibrahim Khalil, head of the Kerala Muslim Cultural Center in Dubai, said the consulate had asked him to select 100 Indian nationals for repatriation.

"We are planning to pay for the tickets of those who cannot afford it," he said, adding that the elderly, pregnant and those suffering from illnesses were a priority.

But one Indian woman, eight months pregnant in the neighbouring emirate of Sharjah, was not one of the lucky ones chosen to go back home in one of Thursday's planned departures.

"We called them but nobody would pick up," the 26-year-old, who requested anonymity, told AFP.

She arrived in the UAE a few months ago to visit her husband, who lives in a shared apartment with another family to save money.

"We have no insurance here and the medical expenses are too costly," said the woman, who was anxious to leave to give birth at home.

"I just hope that I am chosen to go back to India. I don't know why I haven't been considered."

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News Network
May 6,2020

A massive fire engulfed a residential tower in UAE's Sharjah last night. The building has been identified as one Abbco Tower in Al Nahda.

According to the latest inputs, Sharjah Civil Defence teams rushed to the spot and evacuated all residents. 

Firefighters managed to douse the blaze after several hours. The building in question is reportedly a 48-storey structure. Officials are yet to reveal the cause of the fire.

All residents of the building were evacuated while seven incurred minor injuries during the evacuation and were treated at local hospitals, reported the United Arab Emirates' local media.

More details are awaited as this is a developing story.

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News Network
April 24,2020

Apr 24: Dubai's Supreme Committee of Crisis and Disaster Management has announced partial easing of restrictions on public movement in the emirate starting from Friday amid the COVID-19 outbreak.

The announcement is in line with the decisions of the Ministry of Health and Prevention and the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA), a statement released late on Thursday said.

The move, which coincides with the start of the fasting month of Ramzan, will allow increased freedom of movement while ensuring the continuation of strict precautionary and preventive measures, the statement said.

The Committee has also outlined a new set of guidelines on movement and a list of exempted commercial activities and vital sectors, it added.

The decision to reduce restrictions on movement in Dubai follows a careful assessment of the current situation and analysis of reports from various authorities working to combat the pandemic, the committee said.

Underlining the emirate’s success in countering the spread of the virus, it said that stringent measures undertaken over the last three weeks have significantly helped to mitigate the crisis.

It further stressed that despite the partial easing of restrictions on movement, people will not be allowed to hold public or private gatherings and those who breach the guidelines will face legal action.

The need to ensure the safety and wellbeing of the community cannot be underestimated, the Committee stressed.

"Despite the difficult circumstances the world is facing today, the UAE has set an example for dealing with the crisis. This was also made possible through the commitment of all individuals and institutions both in the private and public sector,” the committee said in the statement.

“All measures undertaken by the country have been driven by the objective of safeguarding everyone’s safety and wellbeing,” it added.

Public transport (bus and metro), restaurants and cafes (except for buffet and shisha), retail sector (malls, high-street outlets and souqs), wholesale sector and maintenance shops will be allowed to operate under certain conditions, it said.

Shopping malls, markets and commercial outlets will be open daily from 12 pm to 10 pm. Restaurants and shops are allowed to operate at a maximum of 30 per cent capacity at shopping malls, it said.

Malls and retail outlets are not allowed to hold entertainment events to avoid congestion and crowding, it added.

Restaurants and cafés too have been allowed to operate but are not permitted to serve shisha and buffet. Dine-in customers are allowed but should occupy only a maximum of 30 per cent of the outlet’s capacity and only single-use cutlery can be used at restaurants and cafes, it said.

However, family entertainment facilities, cinemas, changing rooms and prayer rooms will not be allowed to operate. Hotels will be allowed to operate without opening pools, gyms, sauna and massage parlours.

A maximum of 30 per cent of the workforce of all organisations will be allowed to work from their offices while the rest will be required to work from home.

As part of the first phase of easing of restrictions, the stringent curbs on public movement will now be limited to the period between 10 pm to 6 am. During this period, the public will be allowed to leave their homes only for medical emergencies.

Individuals will be able to leave their homes between 6 am and 10 pm without a permit.

The public will be required to strictly follow precautionary measures which include maintaining physical distance from others as per guidelines and wearing a face mask. Those who do not wear a mask will be subject to a fine of AED 1,000.

Members of the public have also been allowed to exercise outside their homes provided they do not leave their area of residence. They can undertake activities such as walking, running or cycling for 1-2 hours each time. Only a maximum of three people can exercise at the same time.

Permission has also been granted to allow visit first and second degree relatives as long as gatherings are restricted to not more than five people. However, visiting high-risk individuals (individuals above 60 years and those with underlying medical conditions) should be avoided.

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