IMF: Gulf economy recovering but faces oil volatility

Riyadh, Jul 1: Saudis braced Wednesday for a tripling in value added tax, another unpopular austerity measure after the twin shocks of coronavirus and an oil price slump triggered the kingdom's worst economic decline in decades.

Retailers in the country reported a sharp uptick in sales this week of everything from gold and electronics to cars and building materials, as shoppers sought to stock up before VAT is raised to 15 percent.

The hike could stir public resentment as it weighs on household incomes, pushing up inflation and depressing consumer spending as the kingdom emerges from a three-month coronavirus lockdown.

"Cuts, cuts, cuts everywhere," a Saudi teacher in Riyadh told AFP, bemoaning vanishing subsidies as salaries remain stagnant.

"Air conditioner, television, electronic items," he said, rattling off a list of items he bought last week ahead of the VAT hike.

"I can't afford these things from Wednesday."

With its vast oil wealth funding the Arab world's biggest economy, the kingdom had for decades been able to fund massive spending with no taxes at all.

It only introduced VAT in 2018, as part of a push to reduce its dependence on crude revenues.

Then, seeking to shore up state finances battered by sliding oil prices and the coronavirus crisis, it announced in May that it would triple VAT and halt a cost-of-living monthly allowance to citizens.

The austerity push underscores how Saudi Arabia's once-lavish spending is becoming a thing of the past, with the erosion of the welfare system leaving a mostly young population to cope with reduced incomes and a lifestyle downgrade.

That could pile strain on a decades-old social contract whereby citizens were given generous subsidies and handouts in exchange for loyalty to the absolute monarchy.

The rising cost of living may prompt many to ask why state funds are being lavished on multi-billion-dollar projects and overseas assets, including the proposed purchase of English football club Newcastle United.

Shopping malls in the kingdom have drawn large crowds in recent days as retailers offered "pre-VAT sales" and discounts before the hike kicks in.

A gold shop in Riyadh told AFP it saw a 70 percent jump in sales in recent weeks, while a car dealership saw them tick up by 15 percent.

Once the new rate is in place, businesses are predicting depressed sales of everything from cars to cosmetics and home appliances.

Capital Economics forecast inflation will jump up to six percent year-on-year in July, from 1.1 percent in May, as a result.

"The government ended the country's lockdown (in June) and there are signs that economic activity has started to recover," Capital Economics said in a report.

"Nonetheless, we expect the recovery to be slow-going as fiscal austerity measures bite."

The kingdom also risks losing its edge against other Gulf states, including its principal ally the United Arab Emirates, which introduced VAT at the same time but has so far refrained from raising it beyond five percent.

"Saudi Arabia is taking massive risks with contractionary fiscal policies," said Tarek Fadlallah, chief executive officer of the Middle East unit of Nomura Asset Management.

But the kingdom has few choices as oil revenue declines.

Its finances have taken another blow as authorities massively scaled back this year's hajj pilgrimage, from 2.5 million pilgrims last year to around a thousand already inside the country, and suspended the lesser umrah because of coronavirus.

Together the rites rake in some $12 billion annually.

The International Monetary Fund warned the kingdom's GDP will shrink by 6.8 percent this year -- its worst performance since the 1980s oil glut.

The austerity drive would boost state coffers by 100 billion riyals ($26.6 billion), according to state media.

But the measures are unlikely to plug the kingdom's huge budget deficit.

The Saudi Jadwa Investment group forecasts the shortfall will rise to a record $112 billion this year.

Riyadh, Mar 9: Schools and universities will be closed in Saudi Arabia from Monday to control the spread of coronavirus.

The Saudi Ministry of Education said the “preventive and precautionary” measures were recommended by the health authorities and are designed to protect students and staff.

The decision covers all educational institutions, including public and private schools, and technical and vocational training institutions.

“The Minister of Education directed that virtual schools and distance education be activated while the schools are closed to ensure that the educational process continues in an effective and quality manner,” the ministry said.

The Kingdom's Education Minister, Hamad bin Mohammed Al-Asheikh, confirmed that the decision was a precautionary step and said that they are conducting daily and weekly evaluations before returning to school.

Meanwhile, the Minister of Health, Tawfiq Al-Rabiah, confirmed that there have been no coronavirus cases in any educational facility in the Kingdom.

“Thank God, the situation is reassuring, and there has been no case in any educational facility. However, the increasing cases in countries have made us keen to enhance the safety of our sons and daughters. So we coordinated with the Ministry of Education to close the schools temporarily,” he said in a tweet on Sunday.

The education ministry has set up supervision offices to help coordinate the distance learning, and respond to parents’ inquiries.

A new committee set up by the ministry will also ensure the virtual schools are functioning through the distance learning methods provided by the ministry.

These include the virtual school platform (Vschool.sa) and mwterials available from the Apple and Android stores.

It will also provide lessons through the “Ain” TV channeland as well as on YouTube via this link: www.youtube.com/dorosien.

The General Presidency for the Affairs of the Grand Mosque and the Prophet’s Mosque also said on Sunday that it will suspend the visitation programs in its external facilities as part of recommended precautions to prevent the spread of the coronavirus and ensure the safety of visitors.

The facilities include the King Abdulaziz Complex for the Covering of the Holy Kaaba, the Gallery of the Two Holy Mosques, and the Library of the Holy Mosque of Makkah.

“The presidency has taken a series of precautionary measures to prevent the spread of the virus, by intensifying sterilization work that is taking place around the clock, and has been keen on coordination and joint cooperation with all relevant government sectors,” it said in a statement issued on SPA.

It added that these preventive efforts come within the procedures that are being implemented by the Saudi government seeking to combat the spread of the new virus, to protect the people of the Two Holy Mosques in particular, and citizens and residents in the Kingdom in general.

Dubai, May 31: As many as 84 beggars have been arrested in Dubai during the Eid Al Fitr holiday, the Dubai Police have said.

The arrests were carried out as part of their anti-begging campaign to prevent begging during the holy month of Ramadan.

Some illegal vendors, too, have been arrested in different areas of the emirate, the police added.

Colonel Ali Salem, Director of the Infiltrators Department at the Criminal Investigations Department of Dubai Police, said that the campaign aims to maintain the safety and security of the society, adding that the campaign was successful and helped reduce the number of beggars across the emirate.

He called on the public to report begging activities to the number 901 or the Dubai Police app.