IMF lowers India's growth forecast over demonetisation, GST

Agencies
October 10, 2017

Washington, Oct 10: The IMF today lowered India's growth projection to 6.7 per cent in 2017, 0.5 percentage points less than its previous two forecasts and slower than China's 6.8 per cent, attributing it to demonetisation and introduction of the GST.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its current year growth forecast for China to 6.8 per cent, 0.1 percentage more than its two previous projections in April and July -- pushing the Communist giant above India at the top of the global growth tally.

It also lowered India's growth for 2018 to 7.4 per cent, 0.3 percentage points less than its previous two projections in July and April. India's growth rate in 2016 was 7.1 per cent, which saw an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from its April report.

"In India, growth momentum slowed, reflecting the lingering impact of the authorities' currency exchange initiative as well as uncertainty related to the midyear introduction of the country-wide Goods and Services Tax," the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report.

"Strong government spending and data revisions in India led to an upward revision of 2016 growth to 7.1 per cent (6.8 per cent in April), with upward revisions of about 0.2 percentage point, on average, for 2014 and 2015," it said.

The latest report, released ahead of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank here this week, puts China slightly ahead of India in terms of growth rate for the year 2017.

However, India is likely to regain the tag of the fastest growth emerging economies of the world in 2018, with China projected to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2018, it said.

The GST, which promises the unification of India's vast domestic market, is among several key structural reforms under implementation that are expected to help push growth above eight per cent in the medium term, the report said.

"In India, simplifying and easing labour market regulations and land acquisition procedures are long-standing requirements for improving the business climate," the report said.

Between 1999 and 2008, India on an average grew at a rate of 6.9 per cent, the IMF said, adding that for the next three years its growth rates were 8.5 per cent in 2009, 10.3 in 2010 and 6.6 in 2011.

In the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 it grew at a rate of 5.5 percentage, 6.4 and 7.5 respectively. In 2015, India clocked a growth rate of 8 percentage points.

For the year 2022, the IMF has projected a growth rate of 8.2 per cent, as against its growth projection of 6.7 in 2017 and 7.4 in 2018.

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was implemented in India from July 1 this year. It brings the economy under a uniform tax regime.

The Indian government scrapped Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes on November 8 last year, claiming that the move would eradicate black money, fake currency and corruption.

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News Network
June 24,2020

Jun 24: The coronavirus tally in Pakistan reached 188,926 with the detection of 3,892 new cases in the last 24 hours, the health ministry said on Wednesday.

Sixty more people died due to the viral infection, taking the death toll to 3,755.

As many as 3,337 patients are in critical condition across the country, the ministry said.

With the detection of 3,892 new cases in the last 24 hours, the coronavirus tally in the country now stands at 188,926, it said.

Sindh reported the maximum number of 72,656 cases, followed by 69,536 in Punjab, 23,388 in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, 11,483 in Islamabad, 9,634 in Balochistan, 1,337 in Gilgit-Baltistan and 892 in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (Pok).

Health authorities have so far conducted 1,150,141 coronavirus tests, including 23,380 in the last 24 hours.

A total of 77,754 patients have recovered so far from the disease.

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Agencies
June 30,2020

Washington, Jun 30: Researchers in China have discovered a new type of swine flu that is capable of triggering a pandemic, according to a study published Monday in the US science journal PNAS.

Named G4, it is genetically descended from the H1N1 strain that caused a pandemic in 2009.

It possesses "all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans," say the authors, scientists at Chinese universities and China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

The researchers then carried out various experiments including on ferrets, which are widely used in flu studies because they experience similar symptoms to humans -- principally fever, coughing and sneezing. 

G4 was observed to be highly infectious, replicating in human cells and causing more serious symptoms in ferrets than other viruses.

Tests also showed that any immunity humans gain from exposure to seasonal flu does not provide protection from G4.

According to blood tests which showed up antibodies created by exposure to the virus, 10.4 percent of swine workers had already been infected.

The tests showed that as many as 4.4 percent of the general population also appeared to have been exposed.

The virus has therefore already passed from animals to humans but there is no evidence yet that it can be passed from human to human -- the scientists' main worry.

"It is of concern that human infection of G4 virus will further human adaptation and increase the risk of a human pandemic," the researchers wrote.

The authors called for urgent measures to monitor people working with pigs.

"The work comes as a salutary reminder that we are constantly at risk of new emergence of zoonotic pathogens and that farmed animals, with which humans have greater contact than with wildlife, may act as the source for important pandemic viruses," said James Wood, head of the department of veterinary medicine at Cambridge University.

A zoonotic infection is caused by a pathogen that has jumped from a non-human animal into a human.

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News Network
March 25,2020

Hubei, Mar 25: As a bus departed from its terminus at Hankou Railway Station at 5:25 am Wednesday morning, Wuhan started to resume bus service after nine weeks of lockdown.

Apart from a driver, a safety supervisor was also on each bus, whose duty was to make sure all passengers are healthy.
"For those who do not use smartphones, they should bring with them a health certificate issued by the health authorities," said Zhou Jingjing, a safety supervisor aboard bus No. 511 departing from the Wuchang Railway Station complex.
The once hardest-hit city in central China's Hubei Province during the COVID-19 outbreak took unprecedented traffic restrictions on Jan 23. All of its public transport and all outbound flights and trains had been suspended in an attempt to contain the virus within the region.

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