Imran Khan now marries his spiritual guide Bushra Maneka

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Chennai, Feb 20: Three people, including an assistant director were killed and 9 others injured when a crane used for the shooting of “actor Kamal Haasan starrer “Indian 2” film crashed down at Nazarathpet near Poonamallee here late on Wednesday night.

Police said the accident occurred when a group of workers were engaged in erecting a set for a scene at EVP film city, private studio. As the crane crashed down, a heavy-duty light stand that was mounted on it also fell on the workers.

Mr Haasan and the film director S.Shankar escaped unhurt in the accident.

The deceased were identified as Krishna (34), an assistant director of the film, Madhu (29) and Chandran (60), who was part of the catering team.

Tamil Nadu Fire and Rescue Services personnel, along with a fire tender from Irungattukottai rushed to the spot and retrieved the bodies from the spot.

Mr Haasan, who was at the accident spot, also helped to transport the injured people to a private hospital near Poonamallee.

The bodies were sent to the Government General Hospital for post-mortem.

The Nazarathpet police have filed a case and are investigating the cause of the accident.

Meanwhile, Mr.Haasan condoled the death of three people during the film shoot. “The accident is the most horrific I have seen in my film career. I have lost three colleagues, but my pain pales in comparison to the grief of those who have lost their loved ones.

My deepest sympathies to them, he tweeted.

The Lyca productions also expressed condolences over the tragic accident. “We are extremely saddened with the unfortunate accident happened at the sets of Indian 2. We have lost three of our most hardworking technicians, it tweeted.