India Could Top China's Growth Rate For October-December Quarter

Agencies
February 28, 2018

New Delhi, Feb 28:  India might have regained the status of the world's fastest-growing major economy in the October-December quarter, driven by higher government spending and a pick-up in manufacturing and services.

The median in a Reuters poll on annual growth in the December quarter was 6.9 per cent, the best pace in 2017. Forecasts ranged from 6.4 per cent to 7.3 per cent.

The government will release GDP data on Wednesday around 5:30 pm.

If there was 6.9 per cent growth, that would top China's 6.8 per cent annual pace for October-December. The last time the economy had a faster growth rate was in the final three months of 2016.

The expected improvement on 6.3 per cent growth in July-September for the country comes as its manufacturing and services sector have been overcoming teething troubles rooted in the bumpy launch of a national sales tax also known as Goods and Services Tax or GST in July.

"After muted activity until September, signs of a pick-up in economic growth are starting to appear," said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at ICRA, the India arm of rating agency Moody's.

A strong gross domestic product reading could lift domestic shares, and boost the rupee, which has been Asia's second weakest currency this year, losing about 1.6 per cent against the dollar.

The GDP data could help Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who faces criticism over mounting bad loans of state banks and a $1.77 billion fraud at state lender Punjab National Bank, the biggest in the country's banking history.

Last week, PM Modi told industrialists that his government, which got a "twin balance sheet" problem resulting from bad debt in banks and many businesses, was determined to put the economy back on a higher growth trajectory.

PM Modi is trying to accelerate growth through higher state spending including Rs. 2.1 lakh crore ($32.36 billion) for recapitalisation of state banks, beset with mounting bad loans of nearly $148 billion.

He has stepped up spending on infrastructure and welfare projects to boost growth ahead of national elections in 2019. This has widened the fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year, ending in March, to 3.5 per cent of GDP, instead of the earlier projected 3.2 per cent.

In November, Moody's raised the country's investment grade rating one notch, the rating agency's first upgrade in nearly 14 years.

NASCENT RECOVERY

India jumped 30 places to break into the top 100 for the first time in World Bank's Doing Business report 2018.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts the country's economic growth could reach 7.4 per cent in 2018 and 7.8 per cent in 2019, overtaking rates projected for China of 6.5 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively.

The world's seventh largest economy, which grew at more than 9 per cent a year from 2005 through 2008, is still far from firing on all cylinders. Domestic demand and private investment remain weak.

Urjit Patel, governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), earlier this month said the economic recovery was at a nascent stage and called for a cautious approach. The central bank has kept its key rate unchanged since a 25 basis points cut in August.

India's investment rate fell close to 30 per cent of GDP in 2017 from a peak of 40 per cent in 2011.

The Centre is worried that higher global crude oil prices pose a major risk to its efforts to regain growth momentum as this could hit domestic investment and push up consumer price inflation.

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Agencies
July 13,2020

Jaipur, July 13: Amid a deepening political crisis in Rajasthan where the number 2 leader of the Congress party Sachin Pilot has revolted, over 200 Income Tax (I-T) sleuths raided the residences and properties of two of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s close confidants.

The Income Tax department has carried out searches at over a dozen locations linked to Congress leader Dharamender Rathore as well as jewellery firm owner Rajiv Arora, both of whom are considered close to Gehlot.

Officials said that the raids that are underway in Jaipur, Kota, Delhi, and Mumbai were done after a complaint of tax evasion was made. Under the scanner, they said, are transactions that were made outside the country.

The curious timing of the Income Tax department’s action against Gehlot’s aides has made the Congress accuse the sleuths of acting on the behest of the BJP.

Congress spokesperson Randeep Singh Surjewala tweeted: “After all, BJP's lawyers came on the field. The Income Tax Department started raids in Jaipur. When will ED arrive?”

The Congress is facing a cliffhanger in Rajasthan after the open rebellion by deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot, who on Sunday night claimed that he had the support of 30 MLAs and that Gehlot was leading a minority government in the state.

However, Congress leader Avinash Pande on Monday said 109 MLAs have signed a letter of support to the chief minister, well above the majority mark of 100. The party has issued a whip to all the MLAs, asking them to attend the Congress Legislature Party meeting at 10.30 am. 

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News Network
March 11,2020

New Delhi, Mar 11: A doctor in Kerala on Tuesday alleged that she was sacked by the management of the private clinic she was working with for informing authorities about a non-resident Indian (NRI) patient who reportedly declined to undergo the mandatory check for coronavirus.

Dr Shinu Syamalan said the patient had come to the clinic recently with suspected symptoms of the virus.

"When he was asked whether he had visited any foreign countries, he said he was coming from Qatar. But he had not reported to the Health department about his foreign trip," she said.

When he was directed to inform about his foreign travel to the state Health Department, which has been monitoring people coming from abroad for the virus, he refused and said he was going back to Qatar, she told reporters.

Concerned over the health of the person who had high fever, Ms Syamalan informed health and police authorities.

"Officials who let the patient go abroad do not have any problem, but I have become jobless," she posted on social media.

She alleged she was sacked by the management of the clinic for reporting the matter to police and informing the public about the incident through social media and through television.

"The argument of the management is that no one would turn up for treatment in the clinic if they come to know that it was visited by patients with suspected symptoms of Coronavirus," she said.

There was no immediate reaction from the management of the private health clinic.

Official sources said the District Medical Officer (DMO) at Thrissur has complained to the collector against Shinu Syamalan accusing her of defaming health officials.

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News Network
February 29,2020

New Delhi, Feb 29: India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than six years in the last three months of 2019, with analysts predicting further deceleration as the global Covid 19 coronavirus outbreak stifles growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data released yesterday showed government spending, private investment and exports slowing down, while there is a slight upturn in consumer spending and improvement in rural demand lent support.

The quarterly figure of 4.7% growth matched the consensus in a Reuters poll of analysts but was below a revised - and greatly increased - 5.1% rate for the previous quarter.

The central bank has warned that downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still unfolding.

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government has taken several steps to bolster economic growth, including a privatisation push and increased state spending, after cutting corporate tax rates last September.

In its annual budget presented this month, the government estimated that annual economic growth in the financial year to March 31 would be 5%, its lowest for last 11 years.

Modi’s government is targeting a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, still far below the level needed to generate jobs for millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month.

The annual GDP figure for the September quarter was ramped up from an earlier estimate of 4.5%, while the April-June reading was similarly lifted to 5.6% from 5%, data released by the Ministry of Statistics showed on Friday.

Capital Investment Drop

In the December quarter, private investment grew 5.9%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter, while government spending rose by 11.8%, against 13.2% in the previous three months.

However, corporate capital investment contracted by 5.2% after a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter, indicating that interest rate cuts by the central bank have failed to encourage new investment. Manufacturing, meanwhile, contracted by 0.2%.

“It appears growth slowdown is not just cyclical but more entrenched with consumption secularly joining the slowdown bandwagon even as the investment story continues to languish,” said Madhavi Arora of Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai.

Many economists said that the government stimulus could take four to six quarters of time before lifting the economy and the impact of those efforts could be outweighed by the global fallout from the coronavirus epidemic that began in China.

“The coronavirus remains the critical risk as India depends on China for both demand and supply of inputs,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

Indian shares sank on Friday for a sixth session running, capping their worst week in more than a decade. The NSE Nifty 50 index shed 7.3% over the week, while the Sensex dropped 6.8%, the worst weekly declines since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Separately, India’s infrastructure output rose 2.2% year on year in January, data showed on Friday.

A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the RBI hold off from further cuts to interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative.

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