India Faced Attacks By Invaders, Still Has Hindu Majority: Mohan Bhagwat

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

Feb 9: The Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) used in Delhi Assembly polls are kept under tight security, in the 'Strong Room' located at Atal Adarsh Bengali Balika Vidyalaya in Gol Market.

Voting for Delhi Assembly elections took place on Saturday with voters turnout well short of the 2015 election mark.

Counting of the votes will be on February 11.

Earlier, Deputy Election Commissioner Sudip Jain had said the Delhi elections took place peacefully and smoothly.

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 20: Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Sunday alleged that efforts were being made to undermine the achievements of the state government in its fight against Covid-19 and said he was "ignoring" them as it was not the time for controversies.

The Opposition Congress has been raising allegations that a US-based company had been entrusted with the task of collecting data regarding the virus-infected patients in the state, in violation of fundamental rights.

"Many developed nations are in awe of the achievements of Kerala in its fight against Covid-19 pandemic. This is the speciality of Kerala model," Vijayan said. Referring to the data collection charge levelled by the opposition parties, Vijayan said some were engaged in slandering the state government.

"Those who think that the government should not have a reputation for effectively handling the coronavirus outbreak are engaged in slandering the state government. It has happened before, it's happening now also. This is not the time to go behind controversies. People are watching and they will evaluate," Vijayan said in his weekly interactive programme 'Naam munnott'.

He said he had decided to ignore such controversies. The ward-level committees, set up by the government for the anti-coronavirus fight, was collecting information of those under home isolation, elderly persons and those at the risk of the disease using a questionnaire in this regard and upload it on the server of the private agency. The Congress has alleged that the data, collected through the government machinery, was being uploaded not on the government server but on that of the foreign company.