India seems to be recovering from demonetisation and GST roll-out: IMF

Agencies
March 11, 2018

Washington, Mar 11: The Indian economy now seems to be on its way to recovering from disruptions caused by demonetisation and roll-out of goods and services tax, the IMF said on Sunday.

At the same time, the IMF has underscored the significance of reforms in other key sectors like education, health and improving the efficiency of the banking and financial systems.

India's economy has expanded strongly in recent years, thanks to macroeconomic policies that emphasise stability and efforts to tackle supply-side bottlenecks and structural reforms. Disruptions from demonetisation and the rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) did slow growth," Tao Zhang, Deputy Managing Director of IMF, told PTI in an interview. Zhang will be travelling to India and Bhutan from March 12 to March 20.

"However, with the economy expanding by 7.2 percent in the latest quarter, India has regained the title of the fastest-growing major economy, Zhang said.

Calling this development a "welcome change", Zhang said the growth prospects remain positive.

"That said, the Indian economy would benefit from further reforms, such as enhancing health and education, encouraging private and public investment, and improving the efficiency of the banking and financial systems. This would support durable and inclusive growth and enable India to move towards the income levels of wealthier countries, the top IMF official said ahead of his visit to India.

Given the dominance of cash in everyday transactions in the Indian economy, it was inevitable that demonetization would temporarily affect economic activity, said Zhang.

The rollout of the GST last year was a landmark accomplishment that can be expected to enhance the efficiency of intra-Indian movement of goods and services, create a common national market, enhance tax buoyancy, and boost GDP growth and job creation, he said.

Yet the complexities and glitches in GST implementation also resulted in short-term disruptions. As I mentioned earlier, the economy now seems to be on its way to recovering from those disruptions, Zhang said in response to a question.

When asked about the latest Indian budget, which many critics say is protectionist in nature, Zhang said IMF research indicates that tariffs are broadly contractionary, reducing output, investment, and employment.

Trade tariffs may give limited relief to industries and workers that directly compete with affected imports. However, they can raise costs to consumers and other businesses that use the protected products. Tariffs also would reduce incentives for businesses to compete and improve efficiency, he cautioned.

Since the opening of the economy starting in the early-1990s, India has benefitted from trade liberalization, he observed.

Further supply-side reforms aimed at improving the business climate could enhance these benefits, the top IMF official asserted.

Noting that the IMF and India have close relations, and the two have always been good partners, Zhang said his visit is a reflection of this partnership, as is the newest regional capacity development centre, SARTTAC, based in New Delhi.

The centre partners with India and its South Asian neighbours to build strong institutions and implement policies that promote growth and poverty reduction in the region, he said.

My visit is an opportunity to exchange views with the Indian authorities, senior RBI officials, and representatives from the Indian business community, civil society, and others, he said.

Zhang will also have a presentation on financial technology that will take place on Monday at the National Stock Exchange of India.

We will go over the latest trends in financial technology and their effects on the global economy and India, said the top IMF official.

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News Network
June 6,2020

United Nations, Jun 6: US President Donald Trump’s response to protests against the killing of African-American George Floyd has included language “directly associated with racial segregationists” from America's past, a group of UN human rights experts have said.

There have been widespread protests across the United States as Floyd, 46, was killed by a white police officer in Minneapolis. People from diverse backgrounds have called for justice and have voiced their support to the protests.

In the wake of protests over the killing of Floyd, Trump had tweeted that “when the looting starts, the shooting starts.”

“The response of the President of the United States to the protests at different junctures has included threatening more state violence using language directly associated with racial segregationists from the nation’s past, who worked hard to deny black people fundamental human rights," a statement issued on Friday by over 60 independent experts of the Special Procedures of the United Nations Human Rights Council said.

"We are deeply concerned that the nation is on the brink of a militarised response that reenacts the injustices that have driven people to the streets to protest,” it said.

A report in The New York Times had said that the phrase "When the looting starts, the shooting starts” was used by Miami’s former police chief Walter Headley in 1967. Headley had been “long accused of using racist tactics in his force’s patrols of black neighbourhoods,” the NYT had said.

They said the recent killing of Floyd has shocked many in the world, “but it is the lived reality of black people across the United States. The uprising nationally is a protest against systemic racism that produces state-sponsored racial violence, and licenses impunity for this violence.”

They noted that following the recent spate of killings of African-Americans, many in the United States and abroad are finally acknowledging that “the problem is not a few bad apples” but instead the problem is the very way that economic, political and social life are structured in a country that prides itself in liberal democracy, and with the largest economy in the world.

Separately, 28 UN experts called on the US Government to take decisive action to address systemic racism and racial bias in the country's criminal justice system by launching independent investigations and ensuring accountability in all cases of excessive use of force by police.

“Exactly 99 years after the massacre in Tulsa, involving the killing of people of African descent and the massive loss of life, destruction of property and loss of wealth on ‘Black Wall Street’, African Americans continue to experience racial terror in state-sponsored and privately organised violence,” the experts said.

Strongly condemning the killings of Ahmaud Arbery, Breonna Taylor and George Floyd, the experts called for systemic reform and justice. “Given the track record of impunity for racial violence of this nature in the United States, Black people have good reason to fear for their lives.”

Taylor, a 25-year-old emergency medical technician was shot in her bed when police raided the wrong house; Arbery, 25, was fatally shot while jogging near his home by three white men who chased and cornered him; and Floyd was accused of using counterfeit currency in a store and died in the street while a white officer knelt on his neck and three others participated and observed.

“The origin story of policing in the United States of America starts with slave patrols and social control, where human property of enslavers was ‘protected’ with violence and impunity against people of African descent. In the US, this legacy of racial terror remains evident in modern-day policing,” the experts said.

The experts also raised concern about the police response to demonstrations in several US cities, termed by some the ‘Fed Up-rising’, that have been marked by violence, arbitrary arrest, militarisation and the detention of thousands of protesters. Reporters of colour have been targeted and detained, and some journalists have faced violence and harassment.

“Statements from the US Government inciting and threatening violence against protesters stand in stark contrast to calls for leniency and understanding which the Government had issued in the wake of largely white protests against COVID-19 restrictions on services like barbershops, salons, and spas,” the experts said.

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News Network
July 5,2020

Washington, Jul 5: US President Donald Trump on Saturday thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his wishes on America's 244th Independence Day.

On Saturday, PM Modi tweeted: "I congratulate @POTUS @realDonaldTrump and the people of the USA on the 244th Independence Day of the USA. As the world's largest democracies, we cherish freedom and human enterprise that this day celebrates. @WhiteHouse"

While replying to PM Modi's wishes, Mr Trump tweeted: "Thank you my friend. America loves India!"

The US President also attended the July 4 American Independence Day celebrations in South Dakota.

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News Network
March 3,2020

Mar 3: Just hours after the ending of a week-long “reduction” in violence that was crucial for Donald Trump’s peace deal in Afghanistan, the Taliban struck again: On Monday, they killed three people and injured about a dozen at a football match in Khost province. This resumption of violence will not surprise anyone actually invested in peace for that troubled country. The point of the U.S.-Taliban deal was never peace. It was to try and cover up an ignominious exit for the U.S., driven by an election-bound president who feels no responsibility toward that country or to the broader region.

Seen from South Asia, every point we know about in the agreement is a concession by Trump to the Taliban. Most importantly, it completes a long-term effort by the U.S. to delegitimize the elected government in Kabul — and, by extension, Afghanistan’s constitution. Afghanistan’s president is already balking at releasing 5,000 Taliban prisoners before intra-Afghan talks can begin — a provision that his government did not approve.

One particularly cringe-worthy aspect: The agreement refers to the Taliban throughout  as “the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan that is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban.” This unwieldy nomenclature validates the Taliban’s claim to be a government equivalent to the one in Kabul, just not the one recognised at the moment by the U.S. When read together with the second part of the agreement, which binds the U.S. to not “intervene in [Afghanistan’s] domestic affairs,” the point is obvious: The Taliban is not interested in peace, but in ensuring that support for its rivals is forbidden, and its path to Kabul is cleared.

All that the U.S. has effectively gotten in return is the Taliban’s assurance that it will not allow the soil of Afghanistan to be used against the “U.S. and its allies.” True, the U.S. under Trump has shown a disturbing willingness to trust solemn assurances from autocrats; but its apparent belief in promises made by a murderous theocratic movement is even more ridiculous. Especially as the Taliban made much the same promise to an Assistant Secretary of State about Osama bin Laden while he was in the country plotting 9/11.

Nobody in the region is pleased with this agreement except for the Taliban and their backers in the Pakistani military. India has consistently held that the legitimate government in Kabul must be the basic anchor of any peace plan. Ordinary Afghans, unsurprisingly, long for peace — but they are, by all accounts, deeply skeptical about how this deal will get them there. The brave activists of the Afghan Women’s Network are worried that intra-Afghan talks will take place without adequate representation of the country’s women — who have, after all, the most to lose from a return to Taliban rule.

But the Pakistani military establishment is not hiding its glee. One retired general tweeted: “Big victory for Afghan Taliban as historic accord signed… Forced Americans to negotiate an accord from the position of parity. Setback for India.” Pakistan’s army, the Taliban’s biggest backer, longs to re-install a friendly Islamist regime in Kabul — and it has correctly estimated that, after being abandoned by Trump, the Afghan government will have sharply reduced bargaining power in any intra-Afghan peace talks. A deal with the Taliban that fails also to include its backers in the Pakistani military is meaningless.

India, meanwhile, will not see this deal as a positive for regional peace or its relationship with the U.S. It comes barely a week after Trump’s India visit, which made it painfully clear that shared strategic concerns are the only thing keeping the countries together. New Delhi remembers that India is not, on paper, a U.S. “ally.” In that respect, an intensification of terrorism targeting India, as happened the last time the U.S. withdrew from the region, would not even be a violation of Trump’s agreement. One possible outcome: Over time the government in New Delhi, which has resolutely sought to keep its ties with Kabul primarily political, may have to step up security cooperation. Nobody knows where that would lead.

The irresponsible concessions made by the U.S. in this agreement will likely disrupt South Asia for years to come, and endanger its own relationship with India going forward. But worst of all, this deal abandons those in Afghanistan who, under the shadow of war, tried to develop, for the first time, institutions that work for all Afghans. No amount of sanctimony about “ending America’s longest war” should obscure the danger and immorality of this sort of exit.

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