'Indian economy saw weakest quarter growth in 5 yrs'

Agencies
August 27, 2019

Bengaluru, Aug 27: The Indian economy likely expanded at its slowest pace in more than five years in the April-June quarter, driven by weak investment growth and sluggish demand, according to economists polled by Reuters.

That would reinforce concerns seen in the minutes from the central bank's August meeting, which showed policymakers were worried about weak growth and indicated further rate cuts in the next few months to boost the slowing economy.

The poll median showed the economy was expected to have grown at a year-on-year pace of 5.7% in the June quarter, a touch slower than 5.8% in the preceding three months. But a large minority - about 40% of nearly 65 economists - expect an expansion of 5.6% or lower.

The GDP data is due to be released at 1200 GMT on Friday (5:30 PM IST).

If the forecast is realised, it would be the weakest start in the first three months of a fiscal year in seven years.

"The deceleration in growth that commenced in the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2019 is likely to have continued," said Rini Sen, India economist at ANZ.

"A host of high-frequency indicators - consumption and investment - have continued to weaken. The most prominent ones include auto sales, output of consumer durables, cement and steel production."

Domestic passenger vehicle sales in July dived at the steepest pace in nearly two decades and declined for the ninth straight month in July, largely due to a liquidity crunch causing huge job cuts in the sector.

These measures, in addition to the risk of further escalation of the U.S. and China trade war are weighing on demand and business confidence in India.

The median response to an extra question in the poll, which was taken Aug. 21-26, showed the average growth rate for the current fiscal year 2019-2020 is likely to be 6.5% despite a weak start. But it is a downgrade from 6.8% predicted just last month and well below the RBI's projection of 6.9%.

The RBI lowered its outlook for the fiscal year 2019-2020 at its August meeting. It has cut a total of 110 basis points in the repo rate since February, which includes an unconventional cut of 35 basis points earlier this month to 5.40%.

But with inflation not expected to rise anytime soon, the central bank will likely ease its benchmark rate by 25 basis points again to 5.15% at its October meeting, followed by a 15-basis-points cut in the first quarter of 2020, according to a separate Reuters poll.

Those cuts, in addition to a suite of recently announced fiscal measures, could provide some cushion for the economy in coming months.

On Friday, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced reforms to revive economic growth, including rolling back recent tax hikes on foreign and domestic equity investors and several measures for industries.

"We believe that the measures announced by the finance minister will help to provide a fillip to credit growth, rate transmission and improving investor sentiment," noted economists at Morgan Stanley.

"We continue to see a slow recovery in growth, as monetary measures will help but may not be sufficient to create a V-shaped recovery, especially in the context of slowing global growth."

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News Network
July 10,2020

New Delhi, July 10: Hours before gangster Vikas Dubey was killed in an alleged police encounter on Friday, a plea was filed in the Supreme Court demanding urgent listing for action into his "possible killing" by Uttar Pradesh Police.

Advocate Ghanshyam Upadhyay had apprehended in his plea that there is a high possibility that Dubey will also be killed in a 'fake' encounter after his arrest from Ujjain in Madhya Pradesh a day ago.

Upadhyay claimed that the UP Police was expected to "concoct the same story of encounter" for Dubey like it did when four of his associates were killed after the 2 July incident.

Dubey was the primary accused in the killing of eight policemen in Kanpur on July 2. He was arrested from Ujjain on Thursday. He was killed in a police encounter, when he allegedly tried to flee on Friday morning.

"During the hunt for Dubey and co-accused, five of his accused aides were arrested/caught and then killed by the police in the name of encounter...Thus, there is every possibility that even Dubey shall be killed by Uttar Pradesh Police like other co-accused once his custody is obtained," Upadhyay feared.

He submitted that the killing of the accused by the police in the name of encounter no matter how heinous the crime was "against the rule of law and serious violation of human rights and nothing sort of Talibanisation of the country". Upadhyay sought hearing in the matter on Friday itself, citing extreme urgency.

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News Network
March 27,2020

Mumbai, Mar 27: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday lowered the key repo rate by 75 basis points to 4.4 per cent in a bid to arrest the economic slowdown amid coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
The reverse repo rate now stands at 4 per cent, down by 90 basis points, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das adding this has been done to make it unattractive for banks to passively deposit funds with the central bank and instead lend it to the productive sectors.
The six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) met on March 24, 25 and 27 and voted 4:2 in favour of the repo rate reduction. The MPC also decided to continue with the accommodative stance as long as it is necessary to revive growth and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the economy while ensuring that inflation remains within the target.
"The need of the hour is to shield the economy from the pandemic," said Das. "We need to mitigate the impact of coronavirus, revive economic growth and provide financial stability."
Repo rate is the rate at which a country's central bank lends money to commercial banks, and the reverse repo rate is the rate at which it borrows from them.
The RBI Governor further said that the economic growth and inflation projection will be highly contingent depending on the duration, spread and intensity of the pandemic.
"Global economic activity has come to a near standstill as COVID-19 related lockdowns and social distancing are imposed across a widening swathe of affected countries. Expectations of a shallow recovery in 2020 from 2019's decade low in global growth have been dashed," said Das.
"The outlook is now heavily contingent upon the intensity, spread and duration of the pandemic. There is a rising probability that large parts of the global economy will slip into recession," he said.
However, the RBI has injected liquidity of Rs 2.8 lakh crore via various instruments equal to 1.4 per cent of GDP. "Along with today's measures, liquidity measures equal to 3.2 per cent of GDP. The RBI will take continuous measures to ensure liquidity in the system."
The RBI governor has said that all banking institutions can offer a three-month moratorium on all loans for a period of three months. The RBI has also allowed banks to restructure the working capital cycle for companies without worrying that these will have to be classified as a non-performing asset (NPA).
The three-month moratorium will permit banks to avoid a large onset of NPAs during the 21-day lockdown and keep their books healthy.
Das said banks and other financial institutions should do all they can to keep credit flowing to economic agents facing financial stress on account of the isolation that the virus has imposed.
"Market participants should work with regulators like the RBI and the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to ensure the orderly functioning of markets in their role of price discovery and financial intermediation," he said.

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News Network
July 14,2020

New Delhi, Jul 14: India's COVID-19 tally breached the 9 lakh mark as 28,498 new coronavirus cases were reported in the last 24 hours, informed the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Tuesday.

As per the Health Ministry, there are a total of 9,06,752 coronavirus cases in the country of which 3,11,565 patients are active cases.

5,71,459 patients have been cured/discharged while one patient has been migrated, the Ministry informed further.

553 more deaths due to COVID-19 were reported in the last 24 hours in the country, taking the number of patients succumbing to the virus to 23,727.

The Centre further informed that India's recovery rate from COVID-19 stands at 63.02 per cent while the recoveries and deaths ratio stood at 96.01 per cent and 3.99 per cent respectively.

As per the Ministry, Maharashtra -- the worst-affected state from the infection -- has a total of 2,60,924 COVID-19 cases and 10,482 fatalities. While Tamil Nadu has a tally of 1,42,798 cases and 2,032 deaths due to COVID-19.

Delhi has reported a total of 1,13,740 cases and 3,411 deaths due to COVID-19.

As per the information provided by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) 1,20,92,503 samples have been tested for COVID-19 till July 13, of these 2,86,247 samples were tested on Monday.

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