Indian rupee rally mostly over; yuan to recover over time

June 6, 2014

Bangalore, Jun 6: The Indian rupee will only make scant gains in the next 12 months as the economy remains weak, although optimism around a new government and a narrowing current account deficit will underpin the currency, a poll found.

Indian rupee rallyThe rupee is among the best-performing emerging currencies this year, rising 4 four percent since January.

It hit a one-year high of 58.25 against the dollar on May 22 - a week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's landslide victory in general elections.

But analysts believe its rally is largely over.

The poll of over 30 currency strategists, conducted June 2-5, predicted one U.S. dollar will fetch 59.25 rupees by the end of June, 59.20 in three months and 60.16 in a year. It was trading around 59.10 early on Friday.

Still, those are the strongest rupee forecasts in a long while. The consensus rose above 60 per dollar in the one- and three- month horizons for the first time since August and follow strong net inflows into Indian financial markets.

Over 337 billon rupees in foreign money poured into Indian stocks and bonds last month, up from almost nothing in April. India's stock market is trading near a record high.

"Much of the rupee's gains in May (were) driven by post-election optimism via portfolio flows into both equities and Indian government bonds," wrote Derek Halpenny at BTMU, who is expecting the rupee to trade at 59 per dollar in a year.

"Modi has been sending all the right signals so far, with considerations to allow at least 49 percent of foreign investments into all sectors."

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, the first to win a majority in three decades, is expected to quickly pass key economic reforms and raise foreign investment caps in various sectors of the economy, including defence companies.

The first peek into the new government's policies will come around early July when Finance Minister Arun Jaitley unveils his maiden budget.

Recent data showing a sharp narrowing in the current account deficit to just 0.2 percent of gross domestic product should also prop up the rupee in the interim.

Still, weak growth will probably prevent the rupee from any significant break higher. The economy grew just 4.6 percent in the Jan-March quarter.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's current track to end its economic stimulus before year-end will also hold it back. And the Reserve Bank of India has been intervening in the market daily, buying dollars to prevent sharp rises in the currency from strong foreign inflows.

YUAN

The Chinese yuan is expected to slowly recover from a sharp slide earlier this year. That correction was believed to be engineered by the central bank to curb speculation that the currency will only go one way - up.

The yuan has been the worst performing emerging currency in Asia so far this year, losing 3 percent against the dollar, which wiped out all of its gains seen in 2013.

But it has shown some signs of stabilising in recent weeks.

The yuan is expected to trade at 6.24 per U.S. dollar by the end of June, appreciating to 6.19 in three months and further to 6.07 by May 2015. It was at 6.25 on Friday morning.

Beijing has announced a series of modest stimulus measures in recent months after the economy got off to a weak start this year. Business surveys in the last week signal activity may be starting to stabilise but a slight pick-up in parts of the economy does not mean a solid, broader recovery is under way.

Short positions on the yuan are now at their smallest level since late February, a separate Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

That poll also showed long positions on the rupee fell by around a third in the last two weeks amid persistent central bank intervention.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
Agencies
June 22,2020

New delhi, Jun 22: As consumer sentiment runs high amid growing chorus for boycotting Chinese goods in the country, the fluid market situation offers new opportunities for various smartphone makers, especially the non-Chinese ones like Samsung, Apple, Nokia, Asus and others, to realign their strategies and regain the lost market share in the face of fierce Chinese competition.

The challenge here would be not to look "opportunistic" and leverage the current explosive situation on just riding on the anti-Chinese sentiment but to offer real challenges in the form of top-end devices with solid internals at affordable price points, feel industry experts.

"The current market conditions in India are fluid and open up new opportunities for smartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to focus and leverage," Prabhu Ram, Head-Industry Intelligence Group, CyberMedia Research (CMR), told IANS.

In the first quarter (January-March) this year, Samsung's shipments were driven by its upgraded A and M series (A51, A20s, A30s, and M30s).

According to Counterpoint Research, Samsung managed to hold third position in Q1 2020 due to launches across several price tiers, especially in the affordable premium segment (S10 Lite, Note 10 Lite).

The South Korean smartphone maker last week announced a Rs 4,000 price drop on its popular Galaxy Note10 Lite smartphone that will now cost Rs 37,999 (6GB variant).

Earlier this month, Samsung launched two new smartphones, Galaxy M11 and Galaxy M01, with powerful batteries under Rs 15,000 in India.

Galaxy M11 comes in two variants. The 3GB+32GB will be priced at Rs 10,999 while the higher 4GB+64GB variant will be available for Rs 12,999.

Samsung has also launched an affordable Galaxy A21s smartphone with quad-camera system and 5,000mAh battery at a starting price of Rs 16,499.

Also read: Boycott China? OnePlus 8 Pro sold out within minutes of going on sale

On the other hand, Apple grew a strong 78 per cent YoY driven by strong shipments of iPhone 11 and multiple discounts on platforms like Flipkart and Amazon in Q1, according to Counterpoint.

Apple has also brought its cheapest yet powerful new iPhone SE that costs Rs 38,900 (64GB) in India with a special offer from HDFC Bank. The new iPhone SE is powered by the Apple-designed A13 Bionic, the fastest chip in a smartphone and features the best single-camera system ever in an iPhone.

According to Tarun Pathak, Associate Director, Counterpoint Research, consumer sentiments are running high and a section of users will look for alternatives, benefitting global and Indian brands.

"However, we do not think non-Chinese brands will run aggressive campaigns based on the situation as it might look like being opportunistic," Pathak told media.

It may actually let brands of Chinese origin try to run aggressive campaigns on their presence and scale.

"Some of these Chinese brands have been active in scaling up local value addition, creating jobs and investing in research and development," Pathak noted.

On Saturday, market leader Xiaomi said that it is "more Indian" than any other smartphone brand.

The company's India head Manu Kumar Jain said that the company's mobile phone R&D centre and product team is in India, it employs 50,000 people in the country, the entire leadership team is Indian and that the company pays its taxes in India.

Earlier, Realme India CEO Madhav Sheth who is also very active on social media said that Realme is an Indian startup.

In his latest episode of Ask Madhav' series on YouTube, Sheth said: "I can proudly say Realme is an Indian startup, which is now a global MNC (multinational corporation)".

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
Agencies
June 27,2020

Mumbai, Jun 27: The Bombay High Court observed that COVID-19 patients from poor and indigent sections cannot be expected to produce documentary proof to avail subsidised or free treatment while getting admitted to hospitals.

The court on Friday was hearing a plea filed by seven residents of a slum rehabilitation building in Bandra, who had been charged ₹ 12.5 lakh by K J Somaiya Hospital for COVID-19 treatment between April 11 and April 28.

The bench of Justices Ramesh Dhanuka and Madhav Jamdar directed the hospital to deposit ₹10 lakh in the court.

The petitioners had borrowed money and managed to pay ₹10 lakh out of ₹12.5 lakh that the hospital had demanded, after threatening to halt their discharge if they failed to clear the bill, counsel Vivek Shukla informed the court.

According to the plea, the petitioners were also overcharged for PPE kits and unused services.

On June 13, the court had directed the state charity commissioner to probe if the hospital had reserved 20% beds for poor and indigent patients and provided free or subsidised treatment to them.

Last week, the joint charity commissioner had informed the court that although the hospital had reserved such beds, it had treated only three poor or indigent persons since the lockdown.

It was unfathomable that the hospital that claimed to have reserved 90 beds for poor and indigent patients had treated only three such persons during the pandemic, advocate Shukla said.

He further argued that COVID-19 patients, who are in distress, cannot be expected to produce income certificate and such documents as proof.

However, senior advocate Janak Dwarkadas, who represented the hospital, said the petitioners did not belong to economically weak or indigent categories and had not produced documents to prove the same.

A person who is suffering from a disease like COVID-19 cannot be expected to produce certificates from a tehsildar or social welfare officer before seeking admission in the hospital, the bench noted and asked the hospital to deposit ₹10 lakh in court within two weeks.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
April 17,2020

Paris, Apr 17: Even as virologists zero in on the virus that causes COVID-19, a very basic question remains unanswered: do those who recover from the disease have immunity?

There is no clear answer to this question, experts say, even if many have assumed that contracting the potentially deadly disease confers immunity, at least for a while.

"Being immunised means that you have developed an immune response against a virus such that you can repulse it," explained Eric Vivier, a professor of immunology in the public hospital system in Marseilles.

"Our immune systems remember, which normally prevents you from being infected by the same virus later on."

For some viral diseases such a measles, overcoming the sickness confers immunity for life.

But for RNA-based viruses such as Sars-Cov-2 -- the scientific name for the bug that causes the COVID-19 disease -- it takes about three weeks to build up a sufficient quantity of antibodies, and even then they may provide protection for only a few months, Vivier told AFP.

At least that is the theory. In reality, the new coronavirus has thrown up one surprise after another, to the point where virologists and epidemiologists are sure of very little.

"We do not have the answers to that -- it's an unknown," Michael Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization's Emergencies Programme said in a press conference this week when asked how long a recovered COVID-19 patient would have immunity.

"We would expect that to be a reasonable period of protection, but it is very difficult to say with a new virus -- we can only extrapolate from other coronaviruses, and even that data is quite limited."

For SARS, which killed about 800 people across the world in 2002 and 2003, recovered patients remained protected "for about three years, on average," Francois Balloux director of the Genetics Institute at University College London, said.

"One can certainly get reinfected, but after how much time? We'll only know retroactively."

A recent study from China that has not gone through peer review reported on rhesus monkeys that recovered from Sars-Cov-2 and did not get reinfected when exposed once again to the virus.

"But that doesn't really reveal anything," said Pasteur Institute researcher Frederic Tangy, noting that the experiment unfolded over only a month.

Indeed,several cases from South Korea -- one of the first countries hit by the new coronavirus -- found that patients who recovered from COVID-19 later tested positive for the virus.

But there are several ways to explain that outcome, scientists cautioned.

While it is not impossible that these individuals became infected a second time, there is little evidence this is what happened.

More likely, said Balloux, is that the virus never completely disappeared in the first place and remains -- dormant and asymptomatic -- as a "chronic infection", like herpes.

As tests for live virus and antibodies have not yet been perfected, it is also possible that these patients at some point tested "false negative" when in fact they had not rid themselves of the pathogen.

"That suggests that people remain infected for a long time -- several weeks," Balloux added. "That is not ideal."

Another pre-publication study that looked at 175 recovered patients in Shanghai showed different concentrations of protective antibodies 10 to 15 days after the onset of symptoms.

"But whether that antibody response actually means immunity is a separate question," commented Maria Van Kerhove, Technical Lead of the WHO Emergencies Programme.

"That's something we really need to better understand -- what does that antibody response look like in terms of immunity."

Indeed, a host of questions remain.

"We are at the stage of asking whether someone who has overcome COVID-19 is really that protected," said Jean-Francois Delfraissy, president of France's official science advisory board.

For Tangy, an even grimmer reality cannot be excluded.

"It is possible that the antibodies that someone develops against the virus could actually increase the risk of the disease becoming worse," he said, noting that the most serious symptoms come later, after the patient had formed antibodies.

For the moment, it is also unclear whose antibodies are more potent in beating back the disease: someone who nearly died, or someone with only light symptoms or even no symptoms at all. And does age make a difference?

Faced with all these uncertainties, some experts have doubts about the wisdom of persuing a "herd immunity" strategy such that the virus -- unable to find new victims -- peters out by itself when a majority of the population is immune.

"The only real solution for now is a vaccine," Archie Clements, a professor at Curtin University in Perth Australia, told AFP.

At the same time, laboratories are developing a slew of antibody tests to see what proportion of the population in different countries and regions have been contaminated.

Such an approach has been favoured in Britain and Finland, while in Germany some experts have floated the idea of an "immunity passport" that would allow people to go back to work.

"It's too premature at this point," said Saad Omer, a professor of infectious diseases at the Yale School of Medicine.

"We should be able to get clearer data very quickly -- in a couple of months -- when there will be reliable antibody tests with sensitivity and specificity."

One concern is "false positives" caused by the tests detecting antibodies unrelated to COVID-19.

The idea of immunity passports or certificates also raises ethical questions, researchers say.

"People who absolutely need to work -- to feed their families, for example -- could try to get infected," Balloux.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.