Indians question Aadhaar, but get naked before white man for visa: Union Minister

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

New Delhi, Apr 21: The historic rout in oil markets that sent US crude prices plummeting to as much as minus USD 40 a barrel is unlikely to translate into any big reduction in petrol and diesel prices in India as domestic pricing is based on different benchmark, and refineries are already filled up to brim and cannot buy US crude just yet.

With storage capacity already overflowing amid coronavirus-induced demand collapse, traders rushed to to get rid of unwanted stocks triggering the collapse of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery.

Indian Oil Corp (IOC) Chairman Sanjiv Singh said the collapse was triggered by traders unable to take deliveries of crude they had previously booked because of a demand collapse. And so they paid the seller to keep oil in their storage.

"If you look at June futures, it is trading in positive territory... around USD 20 per barrel," he said.

Low oil prices may seem good in short-term but in the long run it will hurt the oil economy as producers will have no surplus to invest in exploration and production which will lead to a drop in production, he said.

He did not comment on retail fuel prices that have been static since March 16.

Oil companies have not changed rates despite a fall in international prices as they first adjusted them against the increase that was warranted from a Rs 3 per litre hike in excise duty and close to Re 1 per litre additional cost of switching over to cleaner BS-VI grade fuel from April 1.

Petrol in Delhi is priced at Rs 69.59 a litre and diesel comes for Rs 62.29 per litre.

"The negative price has no direct impact on India or Indian oil prices, as this has taken place due to crude oil produced and traded within the US. India's prices are driven partly by another benchmark, the Brent, which is still trading at USD 25/barrel. Therefore, the retail price of fuels in India are unlikely to fall," said Amit Bhandari, Fellow, Energy and Environment Studies, Gateway House.

Also, Indian refineries are already overflowing as fuel demand has evaporated due to the unprecedented nationwide lockdown imposed to curb spread of COVID-19. So, they can't rush to buy US crude.

The refineries have already cut operating rate to half because the fuel they produce has not been sold yet.

India imports 4 million barrels/day (1.4 billion barrels/year) of oil. The country has been benefitting from the falling prices of oil for the last five years, when oil dropped from a peak of USD 110/barrel to USD 50-60/barrel last year, enabling India to invest in public service programmes.

"However, the additional USD 30 fall of this week is good for India - but there is also a downside. If oil prices are too low, the economies of oil-rich gulf countries will be hurt, threatening the job prospects of the 8 million Indians working in the Gulf countries. India is the largest recipient of foreign remittances due to these workers – very low oil prices will hurt this cash stream," Bhandari said.

He said the negative price of oil shows how much oil oversupply exists in international markets today. "Global oil consumption has fallen due to the COVID-19 pandemic that traders are willing to pay customers to get rid of the barrels they can't store. The world does not have enough storage capacity, and dumping the oil is an environmental crime."

The first half of April saw Brent crude oil prices plummet 63.6 per cent to USD 26.9 per barrel. Prices of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American oil, had also fallen similarly by 63.1 per cent.

But on April 20, WTI prices turned rapidly negative because traders on the Nymex exchange rushed to offload their May futures positions a day before expiry of contracts (on April 21).

Such WTI futures are traded on the Nymex exchange with contracts settled in physical crude oil. Problem is, those who had gone long are unable to find storage facilities for the oil and had to liquidate their contracts before expiry. This caused the plunge in WTI prices.

Contrast to this, June WTI Nymex futures prices is hovering around USD 21, while Brent for June delivery is at USD 25.

Miren Lodha, Director, CRISIL Research said the demand for crude oil was declining already because of economic slowdown when the COVID-19 pandemic-driven lockdowns crushed it further.

Consequently, oil demand is expected to contract by 8-10 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2020 assuming demand recovery begins from the third quarter of the year, he said, adding if recovery doesn't happen by then, further demand destruction could occur.

On the supply side, producers reining in output following a strategic deal between OPEC members, Russia and the US.

Under this agreement, OPEC+ would reduce oil production by 9.7 mbpd for May and June, but gradually ease the curb to 7.7 mbpd between July and December 2020, and to 5.8 mbpd till April 2022 to stabilise prices.

"This is expected to reduce some surplus in the market by the end of 2020," Lodha said.

Crude oil demand is expected to decline by over 20 mbpd in April alone. Typically, monthly global demand is about 100 mbpd. Given this scenario, supply curbs would have limited influence.

Consequently, Brent oil prices is expected to be in the USD 25-30 range for the second quarter while increasing marginally in the last 2 quarters of 2020.

"The gigantic inventory build-ups and lack of storage facilities would also put pressure on prices," he said, adding overall Brent could average USD 30-35 in 2020, with a strong downward bias.

Mumbai, Jun 1: Singer-composer Wajid Khan of music director duo Sajid-Wajid, popular for their work on superstar Salman Khan's films such as "Wanted", "Dabangg" and "Ek Tha Tiger", died in early hours of Monday in a city hospital due to complications arising from a kidney infection. He was 42.

Music composer Salim Merchant, who confirmed the news of Wajid's death, said the composer was hospitalised few days ago at Surana Hospital, Chembur where his condition deteriorated.

"He had multiple issues. He had a kidney issue and had a transplant a while ago. But recently he got to know about kidney infection... He was on the ventilator for the last four days, after his situation started getting worse. Kidney infection was the beginning and then he got critical," Salim told PTI.

The music composer duo made their Bollywood debut with Salman's 1998 movie "Pyaar Kiya Toh Darna Kya" and went on to work on actor's various films including "Garv", "Tere Naam", "Tumko Na Bhool Payenge", "Partner" and the popular "Dabangg" franchise.

Wajid also did playback for Salman in chartbusters like "Mera He Jalwa", "Fevicol Se" and for Akshay Kumar in "Chinta Ta Chita Chita" from the film "Rowdy Rathore", among others. He recently co-composed Salman's songs "Pyaar Karona" and "Bhai Bhai", which the actor released on his YouTube channel.

Wajid along with his brother Sajid served as mentor on singing reality shows "Sa Re Ga Ma Pa 2012" and "Sa Re Ga Ma Pa Singing Superstar".

The composer duo also scored IPL 4 theme song, "Dhoom Dhoom Dhoom Dhadaka", which was sung by Wajid.

Soon after the news of the composer's demise broke, many from the film fraternity took to Twitter to pay tributes.

Actor Priyanka Chopra said she will always remember Wajid's smile.

"The one thing I will always remember is Wajid bhai's laugh. Always smiling. Gone too soon. My condolences to his family and everyone grieving. Rest in peace my friend. You are in my thoughts and prayers," she posted on Twitter.

Actor Parineeti Chopra said Wajid was one of the "nicest" men in the industry.

"Always singing. All heart. Always positive. You will truly be missed Wajid bhai," she tweeted.

Actor Varun Dhawan shared a picture of his filmmaker-father David Dhawan with Wajid and remembered the musician as one of the most positive people in Bollywood.

"Shocked hearing this news @wajidkhan7 bhai was extremely close to me and my family. He was one of the most positive people to be around. We will miss you Wajid bhai thank you for the music," he wrote.

Music composer-singer Vishal Dadlani said he was "heartbroken" after hearing the news.

"Both @SajidMusicKhan and @wajidkhan7 have been close & true friends. The kind who might see the light on and show up at our studio in the middle of the night just to meet and talk and share a laugh. Can't believe Wajid and I will never speak again," he wrote.

Singer-composer Shankar Mahadevan said he was still unable to come to terms with the news of Wajid's demise.

"Shocking ! Good bye dear brother.. love you .. till we meet on the other side ! Prayers for your peaceful journey Wajid bhai," he tweeted.

Singer Javed Ali posted, "Feeling Deeply Saddened after hearing shocking news of the sudden demise of Wajid Khan. May his Soul Rest in Peace. My heartfelt condolences to his family. May Allah give strength to the family."