Indians set for smallest salary rise this year

New Delhi, Jul 30: India's gold demand in 2020 is expected to fall to the lowest level in 26 years with domestic bullion prices hitting a record high and as falling disposable incomes could curtail retail purchases, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday.

Lower demand by the world's second-biggest bullion consumer could limit a rally in global prices, which hit a record high earlier this month, although it could also reduce India's trade deficit and support the ailing rupee.

"Fast rising gold prices could act as headwinds," said Somasundaram PR, the managing director of WGC's Indian operations.

Local gold futures have jumped 35% so far this year after rising a quarter in 2019.

India's gold consumption in the first half of 2020 plunged 56% on-year to 165.6 tonnes. Meanwhile, the coronavirus-triggered lockdown also slashed demand by 70% in the June quarter to 63.7 tonnes, the lowest in more than a decade, the WGC said in a report published on Thursday.

Millions of Indians have lost their jobs or taken a pay cut after the country imposed a lockdown on its 1.3 billion people to curb the spread of the virus that has infected more than 1.5 million Indians.

Consumption is generally high during the June quarter due to weddings and key festivals such as Akshaya Tritiya, but lockdown restrictions kept shoppers indoors this year.

The weak demand in the first half could drag down India's gold consumption in 2020 to the lowest since 1994, when demand stood at 415 tonnes, Somasundaram said, adding that it is still difficult to provide an estimate for full-year demand as the coronavirus crisis is still unfolding.

"Indian demand has previously jumped as much as 300 tonnes in a quarter. Latent demand could come out in the second half," Somasundaram said.

Tokyo, Jul 27: Gold hit an all-time high on Monday as tit-for-tat consulate closures in China and the United States rattled investors, boosting the allure of safe-haven assets, although sentiment was mixed with tech gains supporting some Asian stocks.

MSCI's ex-Japan Asia-Pacific index rose 1.3 percent as Taiwan's TSMC, Asia's third-largest company by market capitalisation, rose almost 10 percent.

The chipmaker's gains boosted other tech stocks in the region and came after rival Intel signalled it may give up manufacturing its own components due to delays in new 7-nanometer chip technology.

Also soothing sentiment, Chinese shares eked out gains after big falls late last week, with CSI300 index rising 0.5 percent.

S&P500 futures were last up 0.4 percent in choppy trade while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.5 percent, resuming trade after a long weekend and catching up with falls in global shares late last week.

Global shares had lost steam last week after Washington ordered China's consulate in Houston to close, prompting Beijing to react in kind by closing the US consulate in Chengdu.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took fresh aim at China last week, saying Washington and its allies must use "more creative and assertive ways" to press the Chinese Communist Party to change its ways.

"US President (Donald) Trump used to say China's President Xi Jinping is a great leader. But now Pompeo's wording is becoming so aggressive that markets are starting to worry about further escalation," said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi Securities.

Gold rose 1.0 percent to a record high of $1,920.9 per ounce, surpassing a peak touched in September 2011, as Sino-US tensions boosted the allure of safe-haven assets, especially those not tied to any specific country.

The yellow metal is also helped by aggressive monetary easing adopted by many central banks around the world since the pandemic plunged the global economy into a recession.

Some investors fret such an unprecedented level of money-printing could eventually lead to inflation.

MORE STIMULUS

Hopes of a quick US economic recovery are fading as coronavirus infections showed few signs of slowing.

That means the economy could capitulate without fresh support from the government, with some of earlier steps such as enhanced jobless benefits due to expire this month.

Investors hope US Congress will agree on a deal before its summer recess but there are some sticking points including the size of the stimulus and enhanced unemployment benefits.

US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the package will contain extended unemployment benefits with 70 percent "wage replacement".

Democrats, who control the House of Representatives, want enhanced benefits of $600 per week to be extended and look to much bigger stimulus compared with the Republicans' $1 trillion plan.

Investors are looking to corporate earnings from around the world for hints on the pace of recovery in the global economy.

"It looks like rising coronavirus cases are starting to slow down recovery in many countries," said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.

Concerns about the US economic outlook started to weigh on the dollar, reversing its inverse correlation with the economic well-being over the past few months.

The dollar index dropped 0.3 percent to its lowest level in nearly two years.

The euro gained 0.3 percent to $1.1693, hitting a 22-month high of $1.16590 as sentiment on the common currency improved after European leaders reached a deal on a recovery fund in a major step towards more fiscal co-operation.

Against the yen, the dollar slipped 0.5 percent to 105.605 yen, a four-month low while the British pound hit a 4 1/2-month high of $1.2832.

Oil prices dipped on worries about the worsening Sino-US relations.

Brent futures fell 0.46 percent to $43.14 per barrel while US crude futures lost 0.44 percent to $41.11.