India's growth slowed due to demonetisation, GST: Donald Trump administration

Agencies
February 22, 2018

Washington, Feb 22: America's bilateral trade deficit with four major countries, including India, narrowed in the first three quarters of 2017 as compared to the previous year, the US administration said in a report according to which India's growth has slowed due to the effects of its structural economic reforms.

The Economic Report of the President (ERP) that shows a path for continued growth and paints a rosy picture for the American economy, alleges that countries, including India and Brazil - both GATT signatories since 1948 - have been far less open, preserving high bound rates and avoiding universal binding coverage.

"Growth in India has slowed due to the effects of its structural economic reforms. India's demonetisation of large-denomination notes in November 2016 invalidated 86 per cent of the cash in circulation in an economy where more than 90 per cent of transactions were cash-based," it said.

"The introduction in July 2017 of a single, country-wide sales tax replaced a vast number of different state and local tax rates, and has created short-term uncertainty," the report noted.

The report expressed concern over increasing share of non-performing loans (NPLs) in India's banking sector, which it said poses further risks.

According to country-sourced statistics provided to the IMF, NPLs as a share of all loans (i.E. NPL slippage ratio) in India stood at 9.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2017, compared with 1.7 per cent in China (IMF 2017).

"NPLs have increased at an alarming rate in recent years, with the current NPL slippage ratio in India almost double that in FY 2014/15 (IMF 2017b). Public sector banks, with the State Bank of India as a leading example, account for the lion's share of NPLs in the banking sector," it said.

The Reserve Bank of India predicts that gross NPLs as a proportion of all loans will increase to 10.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2018, and to 11. 1 per cent by September 2018.

"However, the stress of India's banking sector may be ameliorated in the future, given that the government recently announced a USD 32.4 billion package to recapitalise publicly- owned banks," the report said.

Noting that India has been the most frequent user of anti-dumping measures, the White House said delays in the approval of agricultural products derived from biotechnology in China, the EU, India, and other countries result in increased market uncertainty among technology providers, farmers, and traders of US corn, soy, cotton, and alfalfa—leading to reduced exports of these products.

The Trump administration also blamed India for not implementing the WTO ruling on poultry.

"India has failed to revise its requirements for poultry in a manner that would allow for US imports, and the case continues to be litigated in the WTO," it said.

"Since 2007, India has restricted various US agricultural products, including poultry meat, eggs, and live pigs, supposedly to prevent the entry of avian influenza into India," the report said.

The US has maintained that no scientific basis supports the ban.

In March 2012, the US initiated a WTO dispute by requesting consultations with India.

In emerging and developing economies, such as Brazil, China, India, Russia, and certain other countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, strengthening the external environment continues to help output growth recover.

"There are, however, certain risks to future growth. As monetary policy normalises with higher interest rates in advanced economies, emerging and developing economies could face an outflow of capital," it said.

"Financial stability risks are also increasing due to the increase in nonperforming loans on the private sector balance sheets of two of the biggest and fastest-growing emerging market economies - China and India. Credit growth in China has arguably also become excessive, as it continues to shift from growth led by exports and investment to an economy led by internal demand," it said.

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News Network
June 10,2020

New Delhi, Jun 10: India on Wednesday reported a spike of 9,985 more COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, taking the country's COVID-19 count to 2,76,583, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

279 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours taking the total death toll to 7,745.

The total number of active cases has reached 1,33,632 while 1,35,205 patients have recovered. While one person has migrated.

With 90,787 cases, Maharashtra reported the highest number of coronavirus cases in the country followed by Tamil Nadu with 34,914 cases.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), 1,45,216 samples were tested in the last 24 hours while overall 50,61,332 samples have been tested so far.

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News Network
February 28,2020

Patna, Feb 28: Social and cultural activists from far and wide converged here on Thursday to lend their support to a massive rally that marked the conclusion of Kanhaiya Kumar's 'Jan Gan Man Yatra' across Bihar to galvanise public opinion against CAA-NPR-NRC.

Medha Patkar of the Narmada Bachao Andolan fame, Mahatma Gandhi's grandson Tushar Gandhi and former IAS officer Kannan Gopinathan, who gave up his career at a young age in protest against abrogation of Article 370, shared the stage with the former JNU students' leader.

Shabnam Hashmi -- founder of socio-cultural organisation ANHAD and sister of slain Marxist playwright and director Safdar Hashmi -- also joined them.

Congress MLA Shakil Ahmed Khan, a former president of JNU students' union himself who accompanied Kanhaiya during his tour that commenced at Champaran on January 30, Mahatma Gandhi's death anniversary, and leaders of state units of CPI and CPI(M) also addressed the rally held at Gandhi Maidan.

Kanhaiya began his speech with a one-minute silence held in the memory of those who lost their lives in Delhi violence.

Defending his frequent use of the term "azadi" (freedom) which supporters of the Sangh Parivar hold to be tantamount to supporting secession, Kanhaiya said, "We must talk about the virtues of azadi here since today happens to be the day when legendary revolutionary Chandrashekhar Azad had given up his life fighting the British."

Charging the ruling BJP with pitting Hindus against Muslims, he said, "Let us resolve to defeat their agenda by emulating the fabled friendship of Ram Prasad Bismil and Ashfaqullah Khan."

The young CPI leader, who made an unsuccessful debut from his native Begusarai Lok Sabha constituency last year, seemed unimpressed with the resolution passed by the Bihar Assembly earlier this week against NRC and inclusion of contentious clauses in NPR forms.

"Both the government and the opposition are busy congratulating themselves. I extend my congratulations as well. But to all those who are present here, I would say it is a half-victory. We must not allow our movement to fizzle out and draw inspiration from Gandhi's model of civil disobedience when the NPR exercise gets underway," he said.

"Villagers should ask their respective panchayat heads to ensure that no NPR official is allowed to come knocking in their areas of jurisdiction when NPR is scheduled to be undertaken in May," the CPI leader said.

"We have to brace for a long and tough fight. We are living under a regime which sends conscientious professionals like Dr Kafeel Ahmed behind the bars and declares anybody questioning its actions as an anti-national," said Kanhaiya, who has himself been slapped with a sedition case.

Earlier, in his address, Tushar Gandhi likened CAA, NPR and NRC to the "three bullets that killed the Mahatma" and asserted that these measures would "harm the poor, belonging to all religious communities and not just the Muslims".

"If the government does not care about the poor, we must tell those in power -- 'chale jaao' (go away) just as we had done to the British colonisers... it is going to be a long fight. Independence was achieved five years after the call for Quit India Movement," he said.

"We need to keep repeating the importance of non-violence over and over again while those with other value systems simply have to utter inciting statements," he said, in an oblique reference to the controversial poll campaign of Union minister and BJP leader Anurag Thakur during the recently-held Delhi Assembly elections, which the party lost.

Kannan Gopinathan said, "The claim that CAA is all about granting citizenship and not taking it away is bunkum. Any law which seeks to favour one section of the society on the basis of religion can be tweaked to harm another social segment... people say this government is Fascist. I am not sure of that but it is certainly stupid."

"This government brought in demonetisation and wrecked the economy but failed to achieve its promise of eradicating black money. It abrogated Article 370 and now it is clueless as to what to do with the situation in Kashmir," he said.

"Union minister Amit Shah had declared in Parliament that NRC will be implemented. Faced with public resistance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had to say he does not know what NRC is. Keep up the stir for a little longer, he will start saying he does not know Amit Shah," said Kannan, evoking peals of laughter.

In the course of his speech, Kanhaiya also made the crowds sing after him the National Anthem but skipped a few words towards the end. Participants at the rally were viciously trolled on social media for the slip-up.

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News Network
February 26,2020

Feb 26: Looking out over the world’s largest cricket stadium, the seats jammed with more than 100,000 people, India’s prime minister heaped praise on his American visitor.

“The leadership of President Trump has served humanity,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Monday, highlighting Trump’s fight against terrorism and calling his 36-hour visit to India a watershed in India-U.S. relations.

The crowds cheered. Trump beamed.

“The ties between India and the U.S. are no longer just any other partnership,” Modi said. “It is a far greater and closer relationship.”

India, it seems, loves Donald Trump. It seemed obvious from the thousands who turned out to wave as his motorcade snaked through the city of Ahmedabad, and from the tens of thousands who filled the city’s new stadium. It seemed obvious from the hug that Modi gave Trump after he descended from Air Force One, and from the hundreds of billboards proclaiming Trump’s visit.

But it’s not so simple.

Because while Trump is genuinely popular in India, his clamorous and carefully choreographed welcome was also about Asian geopolitics, China’s growing power and a masterful Indian politician who gave his American visitor exactly what he wanted.

Modi “is doing this not necessarily because he loves Trump,” said Tanvi Madan, the director of the India Project at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. “It’s very much about Trump as the leader of the U.S. and recognizing what it is that Trump himself likes.”

Trump likes crowds — big crowds — and the foot soldiers of India’s political parties have long known how to corral enough people to make any politician look popular. In a city like Ahmedabad, the capital of Modi’s home state of Gujarat and the center of his power base, it wouldn’t take much effort to fill a cavernous sports stadium. It was more surprising that a handful of seats remained empty, and that some in the stands had left even before Trump had finished his speech.

For India, good relations with the U.S. are deeply important: They signal that India is a serious global player, an issue that has long been important to New Delhi, and help cement an alliance that both nations see as a counterweight to China’s rise.

“For both countries, their biggest rival is China,” said John Echeverri-Gent, a professor at the University of Virginia whose research often focuses on India. “China is rapidly expanding its presence in the Indian Ocean, which India has long considered its backyard and its exclusive realm for security concerns.”

“It’s very clearly a major concern for both India and the United States,” he said.

Trump isn’t the first U.S. president that Modi has courted. In 2015, then-President Barack Obama was the first American chief guest at India’s Republic Day parade, a powerful symbolic gesture. Obama also got a Modi hug, and the media in both countries were soon writing about the two leaders’ “bromance.”

Trump is popular in India, even if some of that is simply because he’s the U.S. president. A 2019 Pew Research Center poll showed that 56% of Indians had confidence in Trump’s abilities in world affairs, one of only a handful of countries where he has that level of approval. But Obama was also popular: Before he left office, he had 58% approval in world affairs among Indians.

The Pew poll also indicated that Trump’s support was higher among supporters of Modi’s Hindu nationalist party.

That’s not surprising. Both men have fired up their nationalist bases with anti-Muslim rhetoric and government policies, from Trump’s travel bans to Modi’s crackdown in Kashmir, India’s only Muslim-majority state.

And Trump’s Indian support is far from universal. Protests against his trip roiled cities from New Delhi to Hyderabad to the far northeastern city of Gauhati, although those demonstrations were mostly overshadowed by protests over a new Indian citizenship law that Modi backs.

Modi, who is widely popular in India, has faced weeks of protests over the law, which provides fast track naturalization for some foreign-born religious minorities — but not Muslims. While Trump talked about ties with India on Tuesday, Hindus and Muslims fought in violent clashes that left at least 10 people dead over two days.

In some ways, Modi and Trump are powerful echoes of each other.

They have overlapping political styles. Both are populists who see themselves as brash, rule-breaking outsiders who disdain their countries’ traditional elites. Both are seen by their critics as having authoritarian leanings. Both surround themselves with officials who rarely question their decisions.

But are they friends?

Trump says yes. “Really, we feel very strongly about each other,” he said at a New Delhi press briefing.

But many observers aren’t so sure.

“The question is how much of this is real chemistry, as opposed to what I’d call planned chemistry” orchestrated for diplomatic reasons, said Madan. “It’s so hard to know if you’re not in the room.”

Certainly, Modi understands America’s importance to India. While the two countries continue to bicker about trade issues, the prime minister organized a welcome that impressed even India’s news media, which have watched countless choreographed mass political rallies.

“There is no other country for whose leader India would hold such an event, and for which an Indian prime minister would lavish such rhetoric,” the Hindustan Times said in an editorial.

“The spectacle and the sound were worth a thousand agreements.”

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