With India's inflation ticking higher, it may be time for RBI to pause

News Network
July 16, 2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

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News Network
April 16,2020

Kochi, Apr 16: As many as 268 British citizens stranded in Kerala due to the nationwide lockdown were airlifted by British Airways on Wednesday from Thiruvananthapuram and Cochin International Airports.

The flight took off from Thiruvananthapuram to London's Heathrow Airport with 110 passengers at 7.30 pm. Later, 158 more passengers boarded the flight from Cochin airport at 10.07 pm.
A medical team, including four doctors, screened the passengers at the Thiruvananthapuram airport before they boarded the flight.

Earlier this month, the first charter flight from India reached London's Stansted with 317 British nationals on board from Goa.

The British government had earlier announced the operation of 19 chartered flights to evacuate its nationals who are stranded in India amid travel restrictions owing to the coronavirus crisis.

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Agencies
January 21,2020

Kochi, Jan 21: A special court here on Tuesday sent two students, who were arrested under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) case in Kozhikode last November, to the custody of National Investigation Agency (NIA) for a day.

The NIA court ordered that the duo, who were in judicial custody till now, to be produced before it tomorrow.

In its application, the NIA had said that the accused must be interrogated on the basis of digital records and sought custody of the duo for a week.

However, the defendant argued that no new evidence had been found against the accused and therefore no custody should be granted.

During an earlier hearing, the two had told the court, "We are not Maoists. We are CPI (M) activists. The Chief Minister, who says we are Maoists, should bring proof of whom we killed and where we bombed. In the last election, we have served as CPI (M), booth agents. We are the ones who went out to vote and pasted posters for the party."

The two were charged under Sections 20 (punishment for being a member of terrorist gang or organisation), 38 (offence relating to membership of a terrorist organisation) and 39 (offence relating to support given to a terrorist organisation) of the UAPA.

Allen and Thaha, students of law and journalism respectively of Kannur University, were taken into custody by the police from Pantheerankavu in Kozhikode on November 1 last year.

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News Network
February 6,2020

New Delhi, Feb 6: DMK Lok Sabha member M K Kanimozhi on Wednesday challenged popular actor Rajinikanth to raise his voice for Muslims, saying they have "already been affected" by the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and are protesting on streets against the law.

Reacting to his statements earlier in the day in Chennai that "CAA is no threat to Muslims" and "if they face trouble I will be the first person to raise voice for them," Kanimozhi, daughter of former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi, told news agency that "Muslims in India have already been affected due to CAA".

"Let him (Rajinikanth) come forward and raise his voice for the affected Muslims", she said.

She said the members of the community have been protesting as the law leaves out Muslims.,

Asked whether Rajinikanth, through this pro-CAA statement, was moving closer to the BJP, the MP from Tuticorin said, "What he has said is no different from the BJP's narrative which we have been listening in parliament for the last few days".

Under CAA, members of Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Parsi and Christian communities who came to India from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan till December 31, 2014, to escape religious persecution there will not be treated as illegal immigrants, and be given Indian citizenship.

Rajinikanth had asserted that the legislation did not pose any threat to Muslims. He wondered as to how Muslims, who chose to stay back in India following Partition will be sent out of the country. Besides, the central government had assured that Indian people will have no issues in view of CAA, he noted.

He charged that some political parties were instigating people against the CAA for their selfish interests.

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