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With India's inflation ticking higher, it may be time for RBI to pause

News Network
July 16, 2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

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News Network
January 8,2020

Howrah, Jan 8: Following the 'Bharat Bandh' called by trade unions, protesters blocked railway tracks in Howrah and Kanchrapara in North 24 Parganas on Wednesday.

They raised anti-government slogans and criticised the Center for its policies. They were holding placards, posters and banners against the government.

Commuters faced difficulties as bus services were also affected. CPI (M) protesters also stopped the operation of state transport buses. In Odisha, the public agitation started around 6 am at Talcher, Bhubaneswar, Brahmapur, Bhadrak and Kendujhargarh.

Due to the protests, the following trains are detained enroute at different stations --Bhadrak-Brahmapur passenger at Bhadrak, Kendujhargarh-Bhubaneswar passenger at Kendujhargarh, Bhubaneswar-Balangir InterCity at Bhubaneswar, Howrah-Yesvantpur Express at Brahmapur, Ichhapur-Cuttack MEMU at

Brahmapur and Puri-Rourkela passenger at Bhubaneswar.

The ten central trade unions including Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU), Indian National Trade Union Congress (INTUC), among others have given the call for strike with a 12-point charter of demand. Trade union Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS) is not taking part in the strike.

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Agencies
July 30,2020

Mumbai, Jul 30: Counterfeiting incidents have increased 24 per cent in the country in 2019 over the previous year, creating an over Rs 1 lakh crore hole in the economy, according to a report.

The report also said counterfeiters are having a free run due to the pandemic-driven disruptions to organised supply chains and the resultant spike in consumer demand.

According to the report by ASPA, a self-regulated industry body of anti-counterfeiting and traceability solutions providers, counterfeiting has risen steadily in the last few years, and exploiting the pandemic as a cover for their activities.

Between February and April 2020, over 150 incidents of counterfeiting cases were reported, mostly about fake PPE kits, sanitisers and masks taking advantage of the high demand for these products, it noted.

"There was a 24 per cent increase in counterfeiting in 2019 over 2018, leading to the loss of more than Rs 1 lakh crore to the overall economy," said Nakul Pasricha, president of Authentication Solution Providers Association.

The association works with global authorities like the International Hologram Manufacturers Association, Counterfeit Intelligence Bureau of the Interpol, and domestic industry lobbies like Ficci, he said.

Counterfeiting is a universal issue and is 3.3 per cent of global trade, according to the OECD data, impacting social and economic development across the world.

The report lists the currency, FMCG, alcohol, pharma, documents, agriculture, infrastructure, automotive, tobacco, lifestyle and apparel, as the 10 sectors impacted most by counterfeiting.

Among these, currency, alcohol and FMCG continue to be the top three sectors with the highest counterfeiting in the last two years. The FMCG sector is most vulnerable, as counterfeit incidents rose 63 per cent between 2018 (79) and 2019 when the reported cases jumped to 129.

Within the states, the fakers have a free run in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bengal, Punjab, Jharkhand, Delhi, Gujarat, and Uttarakhand, calling for urgent actions to frame anti-counterfeiting policy measures.

According to the report, UP continues to be on top followed by Bihar, Rajasthan, and together these three states represent almost 45 per cent of all counterfeiting reported in the last two years.

What is more alarming is that counterfeiting is not limited to high-end luxury items today, as common everyday items as fake cumin seeds, mustard cooking oil, ghee, hair oils, soaps, baby care vaccines and medicines are aplenty in the markets.

"There is an urgent need for building and nurturing authentication ecosystems in the country with the active involvement and active participation of all stakeholders," said Pasricha.

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News Network
March 9,2020

New Delhi, Mar 9: Petrol and diesel prices registered a drop across the country on Monday as global oil prices plummeted around 30 per cent after Saudi Arabia slashed prices and set plans for a dramatic increase in crude production in April.

In New Delhi, petrol price fell by 24 paise intra-day and stood at Rs 70.59 per litre. Diesel in the national capital was retailed at Rs 63.26 per litre on Monday as against Rs 63.51 on Sunday.

The retail price of petrol in Kolkata saw a drop of 23 paise to Rs 73.28 per litre. The diesel price fell by 25 paise in the eastern metropolitan city to retail at Rs 65.59 per litre.

In Mumbai, petrol price was Rs 76.29 per litre as against Rs 76.53 a day earlier. Diesel was retailed at Rs 66.24 per litre, 26 paise lower than on Sunday.

In Chennai, petrol was retailed at Rs 73.33 per litre, 25 paise lower than a day earlier. Diesel price saw a fall of 26 paise to retail at Rs 66.75 per litre in the southern metropolitan.

Global crude oil prices fell by as much as a third following Saudi Arabia's move to start a price war with Russia amid worries over the spread of coronavirus.

Brent crude futures were down 13.29 dollars or 29 per cent at 31.98 dollars a barrel by 04:33 hrs GMT after earlier dropping to 31.02 dollars, their lowest since February 12, 2016.

Brent futures were on track for their biggest daily decline since January 17, 1991 at the start of the first Gulf War.

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