India's oil demand growth set to overtake China by mid-2020s: IEA

News Network
January 10, 2020

Mumbai, Jan 10: India’s oil demand growth is set to overtake China by mid-2020s, priming the country for more refinery investment but making it more vulnerable to supply disruption in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

India’s oil demand is expected to reach 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2024 from 4.4 million bpd in 2017, but its domestic production is expected to rise only marginally, making the country more reliant on crude imports and more vulnerable to supply disruption in the Middle East, the agency said.

China’s demand growth is likely to be slightly lower than that of India by the mid-2020s, as per IEA’s China estimates given in November, but the gap would slowly become bigger thereafter.

“Indian economy is and will become even more exposed to risks of supply disruptions, geopolitical uncertainties and the volatility of oil prices,” the IEA said in a report on India’s energy policies.

Brent crude prices topped USD 70 a barrel on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, putting pressure on emerging markets such as India. Like the rest of Asia, India is highly dependent on Middle East oil supplies with Iraq being its largest crude supplier.

India, which ranks No 3 in terms of global oil consumption after China and the United States, ships in over 80 per cent of its oil needs, of which 65 per cent is from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz, the IEA said.

The IEA, which coordinates release of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) among developed countries in times of emergency, said it is important for India to expand its reserves.

REFINERY INVESTMENTS

India is the world’s fourth largest oil refiner and a net exporter of refined fuel, mainly gasoline and diesel.

India has drawn plans to lift its refining capacity to about 8 million bpd by 2025 from the current about 5 million bpd.

The IEA, however, forecasts India’s refining capacity to rise to 5.7 million bpd by 2024.

This would make “India a very attractive market for refinery investment,” IEA said.

Drawn to India’s higher fuel demand potential, global oil majors like Saudi Aramco, BP, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co and Total are looking at investing in India’s oil sector.

Saudi Aramco and ADNOC aim to own a 50 per cent stake in a planned 1.2-million bpd refinery in western Maharashtra state, for which land is yet to be acquired.

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News Network
January 19,2020

Shirdi, Jan 19: Shirdi in Maharashtra will remain closed for an indefinite period from today in the wake of state Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray's decision to develop Pathri town in Parbhani district as Sai Baba's birthplace.

However, Deepak Madukar Muglikar, Chief Executive Officer of Shri Saibaba Sansthan Trust, has said that Sai Baba Temple in Shirdi will remain open today and will not be impacted by the closure of the city.

"There are some reports in media that Sai Temple in Shirdi will remain closed on January 19. I want to clarify that it is just a rumor. Temple will remain open on January 19," Mr Muglikar said.

A call has been given for indefinite closure of Shirdi after Mr Thackeray's reported comment terming Pathri in Parbhani as Sai Baba's birthplace.

"Devotees will not face any difficulty if they come to Shirdi," said B Wakchaure, member of Saibaba Sansthan Trust.

Uddhav Thackeray has recently announced that Pathri will be developed as the birthplace of Sai Baba for religious tourism and also took a review meeting of the development plans in the Parbhani district.

One of the most popular religious destinations in the country, Saibaba Temple in Shirdi witnesses lakh of devotees visiting the holy site every year.

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News Network
March 24,2020

Kochi, Mar 24: Long queues were witnessed in front of state beverages corporation outlets across Kerala on Tuesday despite the statewide lockdown to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

As tipplers thronged the outlets unmindful of the curfew, officials asked them to ensure that they kept a one metre distance between them as part of preventive steps to check the COVID-19 transmission.

Official sources said precautionary measures have been taken at the beverages outlets to prevent the virus spread.

Only those wearing masks were allowed to stand in queues, the sources said.

Police were deployed to ensure that the people standing in queues keep a one metre distance between them, they added.

The opposition Congress slammed the CPI(M)-led LDF government for not taking steps to restrict crowds in front of the Kerala State Beverages Corporation (Bevco) outlets, apprehending that such a situation would pave way for spreading the virus.

Ernakulam district congress committee general secretary Sherin Varghese claimed if the government had implemented a 2017 Kerala high court order directing the beverages corporation to take remedial steps to end long queues in front of the outlets, such a situation would not have arisen.

"Had the beverages corporation complied with the court order, safety and security of persons standing in queues could have been ensured.

Now there is no protective measure to prevent the possible transmission of the coronavirus from a carrier to another person," he told PTI.

Meanwhile, the state government has directed that adequate distance be kept between people standing in queues.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Monday justified the decision to keep the liquor shops open citing the "peculiar" situation prevailing in the state.

Kerala is in a total lockdown since Monday midnight till March 31 to check the virus spread.

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News Network
July 16,2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

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