Inflation seen inching up in March, but still below RBI target: Report

Agencies
April 9, 2019

Bengaluru Apr 9: India’s retail inflation is expected to have accelerated in March on slightly higher food prices but remain under the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4 per cent, a Reuters poll predicted.

If the forecast is realized, March will be the eighth month in a row with below-target inflation, giving the RBI room to squeeze in another rate cut this year.

According to the median consensus of over 40 economists polled by Reuters between April 4-8, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 2.80 per cent in March, up from 2.57 per cent in February.

Forecasts ranged between 2.43 per cent and 3.10 per cent.

“Headline CPI inflation will have remained low in March, even if, as we suspect, it rose slightly as food inflation continues to pick up. In particular, the sharp fall in vegetable inflation over recent months appears to have bottomed out,” said Shilan Shah, senior India economist at Capital Economics.

Food prices, which constitute nearly half of India’s CPI basket, declined 0.66 per cent on-year in February compared with a drop of 2.24 per cent in January.

Oil - India’s biggest import item - has risen over 30 per cent this year and is currently trading at around USD 70 per barrel.

“Transport and utilities - which are clearly being driven by the rise in oil prices - are (also) driving headline inflation higher on a year-on-year basis,” said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING.

At its April 4 monetary policy meeting, the RBI lowered borrowing costs for the second consecutive time to spur growth, bringing the repo rate to 6.0 percent.

The rapid policy easings come just weeks before voting begins in a national election, the results of which will be announced in May.

“The growth argument is not strong for easing policy just yet. Growth is slowing indeed, but it is not just India, it is slowing everywhere. (But) India still has very strong domestic demand,” said ING’s Sakpal.

According to a Reuters poll last week, economic growth is forecast to average 7.2 per cent over the coming year.

But while inflation is predicted to rise to the RBI’s target this year, just under half of economists polled by Reuters last week predicted another rate cut.

“The RBI will almost certainly follow up its cumulative 50bp of rate cuts this year with further loosening, perhaps as soon as June,” said Shah at Capital Economics.

“But with core inflation still elevated, we think that further policy loosening will prove to be a policy mistake.”

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coastaldigest.com web desk
June 16,2020

New Delhi, Jun 16: Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi led government’s attempt to downplay the border dispute with China, matters have heated up unprecedentedly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC)- the effective Sino-India border in Eastern Ladakh. 

The country has lost three precious lives – an army officer and two soldiers. The last time blood was spilled on the LAC, before the latest episode, was 45 years ago when the Chinese ambushed an Assam Rifles patrol in Tulung La.

India had lost four soldiers on October 20, 1975 in Tulung La, the last time bullets were fired on the India-China border though both the countries witnessed bitter stand-offs later at Sumdorong Chu valley in 1987, Depsang in 2013, Chumar in 2014 and Doklam in 2017.

Between 1962 and 1975, the biggest clash between India and China took place in Nathu La pass in 1967 when reports suggest that around 80 Indian soldiers were killed and many more Chinese personnel.

While three soldiers, including a Commanding Officer, were killed in the latest episode in Galwan Valley, the government describes it as a "violent clash" and does not mention opening fire.

New Delhi described the locality where the 1975 incident took place as "well within" its territory only to be rebuffed by Beijing as "sheer reversal of black and white and confusion of right and wrong".

The Ministry of External Affairs had then said that the Chinese had crossed the LAC and ambushed the soldiers while Beijing claimed the Indians entered their territory and did not return despite warnings.

The Indian government maintained that the ambush on the Assam Rifles' patrol in 1975 took place "500 metres south of Tulung" on the border between India and Tibet and "therefore in Indian territory". It said Chinese soldiers "penetrating" Indian territory implied a "change in China's position" on the border question but the Chinese denied this and blamed India for the incident.

The US diplomatic cables quoted an Indian military intelligence officer saying that the Chinese had erected stone walls on the Indian side of Tulung La and from these positions fired several hundred rounds at the Indian patrol.

"Four of the Indians had gone into a leading position while two (the ones who escaped) remained behind. The senior military intelligence officer emphasised that the soldiers on the Indian patrol were from the area and had patrolled that same region many times before," the cable said.

One of the US cables showed that former US Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger sought details of the October 1975 clash "without approaching the host governments on actual location of October 20 incident". He also wanted to know what ground rules were followed regarding the proximity of LAC by border patrols.

A cable sent from the US mission in India on November 4, 1975 appeared to have doubts about the Chinese account saying it was "highly defensive".

"Given the unsettled situation on the sub-continent, particularly in Bangladesh, both Chinese and Indian authorities have authorised stepped up patrols along the disputed border. The clash may well have ensued when two such patrols unexpectedly encountered each other," it said.

Another cable from China on the same day quoted another October 1974 cable, which spoke about Chinese officials being concerned for long that "some hotheaded person on the PRC (People's Republic of China) might provoke an incident that could lead to renewed Sino-Indian hostilities. It went on to say that this clash suggested that "such concerns and apprehensions are not unwarranted".

According to the United States diplomatic cables, Chinese Foreign Ministry on November 3, 1975 disputed the statement of the MEA spokesperson, who said the incident took place inside Indian territory.

The Chinese had said "sheer reversal of black and white and confusion of right and wrong". In its version of the 1975 incident, they said Indian troops crossed the LAC at 1:30 PM at Tulung Pass on the Eastern Sector and "intruded" into their territory when personnel at the Civilian Checkpost at Chuna in Tibet warned them to withdraw.

Ignoring this, they claimed, Indian soldiers made "continual provocation and even opened fire at the Chinese civilian checkpost personnel, posing a grave threat to the life of the latter. The Chinese civilian checkpost personnel were obliged to fire back in self defence."

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson had also said they told the Indian side that they could collect the bodies "anytime" and on October 28, collected the bodies, weapons and ammunition and "signed a receipt".

The US cables from the then USSR suggested that the official media carried reports from Delhi on the October 1975 incident and they cited only Indian accounts of the incident "ridiculing alleged Chinese claims that the Indians crossed the line and opened fire first".

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News Network
July 16,2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: The Rajasthan High Court will hear Thursday afternoon a petition filed on behalf of the Sachin Pilot camp, challenging a move to disqualify dissident MLAs from the state assembly.

The plea against the disqualification notices sent from the Speaker’s office to Pilot and 18 other Congress MLAs will be heard by Justice Satish Chandra Sharma.

The 19 MLAs were sent notices Tuesday by the Speaker after the Congress complained that the MLAs had defied a party whip to attend two Congress Legislature Party meetings. 

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News Network
April 14,2020

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 14: The Kerala government on Monday requested Prime Minister Narendra Modi to arrange special flights to the Gulf to bring back non resident Keralites stranded there due to the lockdown.

In a letter to Modi, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said many Keralites who had gone on visit visas and in search of employment were finding it difficult to continue there without jobs.

"While we appreciate the constraints faced in allowing international travel as the threat of COVID-19 has not yet receded, it is requested that special consideration to their needs be given and at an earliest opportune time, the Government of India consider arranging special flights to bring these people back," Vijayan said in the letter.

All International health protocols can be followed while extending this facility, he said and assured that testing and quarantine needs of Keralites who are returning would be undertaken by the state government. During the video conferencing the Prime Minister had with Chief Ministers on April 11, this matter had been broght to Modi's notice, Vijayan said.

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