Irfan, Rakesh Babu sent home from CWG for breach of No Needle Policy

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

New Delhi, May 30: The COVID-19 pandemic has left the Indian private healthcare sector in acute financial distress, a new survey said on Friday adding that the healthcare facilities in the country have witnessed at least 80 per cent fall in average revenue.

Post the lockdown from March 24, Indian hospitals have seen a large impact, especially among small and medium-sized hospitals, which are now facing existential challenges.

The survey by healthcare industry body NATHEALTH was conducted in 251 healthcare facilities across nine states and 69 cities to assess the impact of COVID-19 on the domestic healthcare industry.

The findings showed that 90 per cent of the surveyed healthcare facilities are facing financial challenges with 21 per cent facilities facing an existential threat.

"There is a need for a stimulus package to revive the Indian healthcare industry which will be crucial to provide much-needed relief to the healthcare sector which is the frontline defence in this fight against COVID-19," said Dr Sudarshan Ballal, President NATHEALTH.

According to the survey, hospitals in tier 1 and tier 2 cities are experiencing a 78 per cent reduction in OPD footfalls, and a drop of 79 per cent in in-patient admissions.

The study found that 90 per cent of organisations require some form of financial assistance.

The findings indicated that even after the lockdown lift, the situation will remain difficult for the hospitals and nursing homes as patients will hesitate from visiting hospitals.

Potchefstroom, Feb 9: Defending champions India are overwhelming favourites to win a record fifth U19 World Cup title on Sunday but a tough fight is expected from first-timers Bangladesh in an all-Asian final.

If the India squad for the 2018 edition had the likes of Prithvi Shaw and Shubman Gill, who have expectedly gone on to play for the senior team, the exploits of opener Yashasvi Jaiswal, spinner Ravi Bishnoi and pacer Kartik Tyagi in the current edition have made them overnight stars.

Irrespective of what happens in the final, India have reinforced the fact that they are undisputed leaders at the under-19 level and the cricketing structure the BCCI has developed is working better than any other board in the world.

India, who walloped arch-rivals Pakistan by 10 wickets in the semifinal Tuesday, will be playing their seventh final since 2000 when they lifted the trophy for the first time.

Having said that, success at the U-19 level doesn’t guarantee success at the highest level as not all players have the ability to go on and play for India. Some also lose their way like Unmukt Chand did after leading India to the title in 2012.

His career promised so much back then but now it has come to a stage where he is struggling to make the eleven in Uttarakhand’s Ranji Trophy team, having shifted base from Delhi last year.

Only the exceptionally talented like Shaw and Gill get to realise their dream as the competition is only getting tougher in the ever-improving Indian cricket.

India probably is the only side which fields a fresh squad in every U-19 World Cup edition and since there is no dearth of talent and a proper structure is in place, the talent keeps coming up.

“The fact that we allow a cricketer to play the U-19 World Cup only once is a big reason behind the team’s success. While most teams have cricketers who have played in the previous edition,” India U-19 fielding coach Abhay Sharma said from Potchefstroom.

“It just goes to show that the system under the visionary leadership of Rahul Dravid (NCA head) is flourishing. Credit to BCCI as well that other teams want to follow our structure.”

Heading to the mega event, India colts played about 30-odd games in different part of the world. To get used to the South African conditions, they played a quadrangular series before they played their World Cup opener against Sri Lanka.

In the final, India run into Bangladesh, a team which too has reaped the benefits of meticulous planning since their quarterfinal loss at the 2018 edition.

Though the Priyam Garg-led Indian side got the better of them in the tri-series in England and Asia Cup last year, Bangladesh has always come up with a fight and fielding coach Sharma expects it would be no different Sunday.

They are a very good side. There is a lot of mutual respect. I can tell you that,” he said.

Considering it is their maiden final, it is a bigger game for Bangladesh. If they win, it will be sweet revenge against the sub-continental giants, who have found a way to tame Bangladesh at the senior level in close finals including the 2018 Nidahas Trophy and 2016 World T20.

“We don’t want to take unwanted pressure. India is a very good side. We have to play our ‘A’ game and do well in all three departments. Our fans are very passionate about their cricket. I would want to tell them, keep supporting us,” said Bangladesh skipper Akbar Ali after their semifinal win over New Zealand.