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Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

New Delhi, Jun 8: Union Human Resource Development Minister Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank has said that CBSE board results can be declared by August 15. The results of both class 10 and 12 will be declared at an interval of just a few days.

However, the decision to open schools will be taken after August keeping in mind the current COVID-19 situation. At present, the Ministry of Human Resource Development has not set any date for reopening schools.

Nishank said during a discussion "We hope that the results of both 10th and 12th class will be declared by August 15. These include the results of previous exams and the results of examinations in July."

On the issue of reopening of schools, Nishank said "after August the process of opening schools will be started."

A final decision in this regard will be taken only after assessing the prevailing conditions. According to the HRD ministry, after August, new sessions will also start in universities.

Meanwhile, the Arvind Kejriwal government in Delhi has also written to the HRD ministry on the subject of reopening schools. Delhi Education Minister Manish Sisodia said in the letter, "Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said some time ago that we have to learn to live with coronavirus. So it would be better to open schools with proper safety measures."

Sisodia said that first of all, we have to assure every child that they are important to us. Everyone has equal rights over the physical and intellectual environment of his school. Education cannot progress beyond online classes only. It would be impossible to pursue education only by calling older children to school and keeping younger children at home.

Several private schools have also suggested measures to the HRD ministry to open schools and safety in schools during this period. However, the ministry is not in a hurry to reopen schools at present. According to senior officials of the ministry, at present, preparations are being made to conduct the remaining board exams of class 10 and 12 between July 1 and 15.

After the examinations, the first priority is to declare the results. Only then can the process of reopening school colleges begin.

The Indian National Congress is considering to move court seeking action against operation lotus,  after an audio clip in which Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan can be heard saying that the Central leadership of Bharatiya Janata Party wanted the Kamal Nath government to fall went viral.

Mr Chouhan is also heard saying in the purported 9.28-minute long audio clip that it was not possible to pull down the Kamal Nath government without the help of Jyotiraditya Scindia and his loyalist, former Congress MLA Tulsi Silawat.

The Congress, which has all along maintained that the BJP had hatched a conspiracy to pull down the 15-month-old Kamal Nath government to “capture” power in MP, threatened legal action.

“I have been maintaining from the very beginning that there was a conspiracy to pull down my duly elected government… The audio has established that the BJP’s Central leadership had conspired to pull down my government even though it enjoyed majority,” former chief minister and Congress veteran Kamal Nath said.

Working president of MP Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) Jitu Patwari said his party may move court against the BJP for having plotted to dislodge an elected government following the expose in the purported audio.

Mr Chouhan was reportedly addressing BJP workers of Sanware Assembly constituency in Indore on Monday when he allegedly said in Hindi, “The Central leadership (of BJP) decided that the (Kamal Nath) government should fall. They (the Kamal Nath government) will ruin and destroy … Tell me, was it possible to dislodge the government without Jyotiraditya Scindia and Tulsi Bhai? There was no other way.”  

The “Tulsi Bhai” referred to in the clip is former health minister who joined the BJP along with Mr Scindia.

“In the coming bypoll if Tulsi Silawat doesn’t become MLA again, will I be able to remain CM, will the BJP government survive?” he allegedly said, exhorting BJP workers to overcome their differences and work for Mr Silawat’s victory in the upcoming by-elections in the Sanwer Assembly seat.

Twenty-two Congress MLAs, loyal to Mr Scindia, had resigned from the Assembly leading to the fall of the Kamal Nath government on March 20, paving the way for Mr Chouhan to return as chief minister for the fourth time.

All the 22 ex-Congress MLAs later joined the BJP with Mr Scindia. Two of them, Mr Silawat and Govind Singh Rajput, have been inducted into the Shivraj Singh Chouhan Cabinet.

The BJP has vehemently denied any role in the collapse of the Kamal Nath government. Neither the saffron party’s Central leadership nor Mr Chouhan have reacted to the audio clip yet

But the party’s state spokesperson Rajneesh Agrawal dismissed the charge that it had a hand in the fall of the Kamal Nath government.

“Infighting in Congress had led to the fall of the Kamal Nath government,” he said.