Israeli settlers seal mosque in al-Quds amid rise of violence against Palestinians

Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Asia, Jan 15: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on Wednesday said that killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani showed the ignorance and arrogance of the United States and asserted that Washington looks at things from their perspective and not keeping the interests of the region in mind."The US looks at things from their perspective, not from the perspective of this region. The killing of Qassem Soleimani shows ignorance and arrogance. 430 Indian cities saw protests against killing of Soleimani," Zarif said at an event.

Hitting out at US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, Zarif said that they were the only ones, along with the Islamic State (ISIS) who celebrated the death of Soleimani.

"Who is celebrating Soleimani's killing? President Trump, Pompeo and Daesh (Arabic name of ISIS). You wonder about strange bedfellows?" he said.

Tensions between the US and Iran soared dramatically earlier this month after Washington launched airstrikes at Baghdad International Airport, which killed Soleimani. Tehran retaliated by firing a volley of ballistic missiles at two military bases of US-led coalition forces in Iraq, leading to a strife in the region.

However, Zarif regretted the shooting down of the Ukrainian airline and said it happened because of "tension".

"Nine million people were out in the streets of Iran commemorating Soleimani. You cannot bring out so many people to protest. The shooting down of a plane was a mistake. 180 families are mourning the loss of their dear ones. It happened because of tension," he said.

Asked whether there a chance of a diplomatic solution to the ongoing crisis, Zarif ruled out negotiating with the US.

"Iran is interested in diplomacy. We are not interested in negotiating with the US. US did not keep its commitments under nuclear deal. We had a US deal and the US broke it. If we have a Trump deal, how long will it last?" he said.

Riyadh, Mar 15: Saudi Aramco on Sunday reported a 20.6 percent drop in its net profit for 2019 due to low oil prices and production levels, the company said in a statement.

These are the first annual results to be announced by the energy giant after its historical $29.4 billion initial public offering and listing on the Saudi Tadawul market last December.

Aramco posted net profits of $88.2 billion last year compared to $111.1 billion in 2018, Monday's statement said.

"The decrease was primarily due to lower crude oil prices and production volumes, coupled with declining refining and chemical margins," it said.

The company also made $1.6 billion of impairment provisions for losses associated with Sadara Chemical Company, an Aramco subsidiary.

"2019 was an exceptional year for Saudi Aramco. Through a variety of circumstances -- some planned and some not -- the world was offered unprecedented insight into Saudi Aramco's agility and resilience," CEO Amin Nasser said.

"Our unique scale, low costs, and resilience came together to deliver both growth and world-leading returns, while also maintaining our position as one of the world's most reliable energy companies," Nasser said.

The earnings for last year are not affected by the coronavirus outbreak or the ongoing price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has sent oil prices crashing.

Aramco said it will distribute dividends worth $73.2 billion for 2019 but based on its commitments under the IPO, its dividends for the next five years starting this year will be at least $75 billion.

It said its capital spending last year dropped to $32.8 billion from $35.1 billion in 2018.

The company expects capital spending, which is expenditure on projects, to be between $25 billion and $30 billion this year "in light of current market conditions and recent commodity price volatility."

But it said that capital expenditure for 2021 and beyond is currently under review.

The results were announced amid a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia after they failed to agree on additional output cuts to support prices dented by the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.

"The recent COVID-19 outbreak and its rapid spread illustrate the importance of agility and adaptability in an ever-changing global landscape," Nasser said.

The kingdom said last week Aramco will pump 12.3 million barrels of oil per day, boosting output by at least 2.5 million bpd.

It also announced plans to raise production capacity from 12 million bpd to 13 million bpd.

Forecasts for future crude prices and demand are also bleak.

In its latest monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its forecast for global average daily demand by 0.92 million barrels to 99.73 million barrels.

Saudi Arabia is also in the midst of a royal purge that saw King Salman's brother and nephew detained after sources said they were accused of plotting a palace coup to unseat the crown prince, heir to the Saudi throne.

Aramco shares rallied immediately after the listing on December 11, rising by 19 percent to 38 riyals ($10.1) and temporarily lifting the company's valuation above the $2 trillion mark, which was sought by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler.

But as oil prices tumble, Aramco shares have lost 29 percent from its highest point, slipping below the listing price.

On Thursday, Aramco's market value dropped to around $1.55 trillion, but it still remains the world's largest publicly listed company.