Jaya's situation 'extremely grave', says London specialist

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

New Delhi, Jun 11: Union Minister Kiren Rijiju on Thursday said the religious and constitutional rights of minorities are absolutely safe in India and it does not need any certificate from anyone as communal harmony and tolerance are in the DNA of the country and its majority community.

Comments of Rijiju, a Buddhist, came after a top Trump administration official has said that the US is very concerned about what is happening in India in terms of religious freedom.

"India doesn't need certificate on communal harmony and tolerance which is in the DNA of India and the majority community in India," Rijiju, who holds the charge of the Union minister of state for minority affairs besides being the union sports minister, said in a statement.

Rijiju said the social, religious and constitutional rights of minorities are absolutely safe in the country.

"A few politically intolerant people are trying to create an atmosphere of fear and intolerance. As a member of the minority community, I feel India is the best country in the world for the minorities," he said.

Samuel Brownback, the US Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom, said on Wednesday that India has been a country area that spawned four major religions itself.

"We do remain very concerned about what's taking place in India. It's historically just been a very tolerant, respectful country of religions, of all religions," he said.

The trendlines have been troubling in India because it is such a religious subcontinent and seeing a lot more communal violence, Brownback said.

His comments came after the release of the '2019 International Religious Freedom Report'.

Mandated by the US Congress, the report documenting major instances of the violation of religious freedom across the world was released by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the State Department.

India has previously rejected the US religious freedom report, saying it sees no locus standi for a foreign government to pronounce on the state of its citizens' constitutionally protected rights.

"India is proud of its secular credentials, its status as the largest democracy and a pluralistic society with a longstanding commitment to tolerance and inclusion", the government had said earlier.

New Delhi, May 2: With 2,293 new cases in the last 24 hours, the highest number of cases in a single day, India's COVID-19 tally reached 37,336 on Saturday, including 1,218 deaths, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
As many as 71 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours.

Out of the total number, 9,951 people have been cured/discharged/migrated.

In the state of Maharashtra, the number of coronavirus positive cases has crossed the 10,000-mark with at least 485 deaths.

The positive cases in Maharashtra has reached 11,506, including 1,879 discharged cases.

After Maharashtra, Gujarat has the most number of COVID-19 cases (4,721). The state has reported 236 deaths, while 735 people have been discharged.

The Centre on Friday extended the ongoing nationwide lockdown for two more weeks with effect from May 4 till May 17 while allowing different sets of relaxations in red, orange and green zones.