Kashmiri woman Iram Habib gives wings to her aspirations

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Ramanagara, May 15: Flouting all social distancing norms, people gathered in large numbers for a village temple fair in Karnataka's Ramanagara district.

On Thursday, people in large numbers came out on a road to participate in the fair. Attendees took permission for gathering from Panchayat Development Officer NC Kalmatt.

According to a Tehsildar official, Kalmatt was suspended by Ramanagara Deputy Commissioner for granting permission for the gathering.

People have been advised to wear mask in public space and maintain social distancing to contain the spread of coronavirus.

Meanwhile, 45 more COVID-19 cases have been reported from Karnataka, taking the total number of coronavirus cases in the state to 1,032 on Friday, according to the state Health Department.

Mangaluru, Jul 19: Palakkad Division of Southern Railway that has jurisdiction over Mangaluru Railway region has established a business development unit (BDU) to cater to the transportation of various sectors, including non-bulk goods traffic, namely, white goods, finished products, manufactured products, agricultural produce and raw material.

In a statement issued here on Sunday said that the BDU’s mandate was to facilitate seamless interaction between the Railways on the one hand and industry, trade representatives and rail freight customers on the other at appropriate zonal or divisional levels. The unit was also expected to help expeditious clearance of their proposals for freight movement.

Palakkad Divisional Railway Manager Pratap Singh Shami established the BDU in line with the similar unit at the zonal level with other divisions of SR too setting up similar units. Palakkad BDU would work under the supervision of Additional DRM-II CT Sakkeer Hussain while Senior Divisional Operations Manager PL Ashok Kumar was its convener with Senior Divisional Commercial Manager Jerin G Anand, Senior Divisional Mechanical Engineer KV Sundaresan and Senior Divisional Finance Manager AP Sivachandrar were its members.