Kashmiri woman Iram Habib gives wings to her aspirations

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Bengaluru, Apr 18: Virtually defending the Gowda family for conducting a marriage reportedly defying lockdown restrictions, Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa on Tuesday said it was performed in a simple manner and well within their limits, "for which they are to be congratulated."

"All the necessary permissions were given and the marriage was performed in a simple manner. There is no need to discuss about it. They had done it well within their limits for which I congratulate them," Yediyurappa said to a query from reporters during the post-COVID-19 briefing.

Scores of people had thronged a farmhouse on Friday to get a glimpse of the wedding of former Prime Minister and JD (S) supremo, H D Deve Gowda's grandson Nikhil Kumaraswamy, ignoring appeals not to visit the venue in view of the ongoing lockdown to check the COVID-19 outbreak. Nikhil, son of former Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy, tied the nuptial knot with Revathi, the grand-niece of former Karnataka housing minister M Krishnappa.

The marriage was solemnised at Kumaraswamy's Kethaganahalli farmhouse at Bidadi in the neighbouring Ramanagara district, a JD(S) stronghold. Kumaraswamy had taken to Twitter after the marriage, thanking his party MLAs, leaders and workers for staying away from the event and blessing his son from their houses. In a series of tweets, he had said social distancing was maintained and all precautionary measures were taken throughout the event.

BJP had hit out at the JD(S) first family for flouting the norms, alleging that at least 150 to 200 vehicles were given permission to attend the event, that too at at time when social workers wanting to serve the badly affected poor people were not being allowed to ply any form of transport JD(S) leader N H Konareddi and MLC T A Sharavanna had denied the charges, saying the union government guidelines had been followed and that social distancing was maintained.

May 11: The Karnataka government appears set to roll out red carpet welcome to foreign companies seeking to move out of China.

The State's Large and Medium Scale Industries Minister Jagadish Shettar said the Government plans to constitute a task force, under the Chairmanship of the Chief Secretary T M Vijay Bhaskar, to spearhead the drive to attract such investment. A proposal to this effect has been sent to the Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa for approval, the Minister told PTI in an interview.

This panel would take feedback and suggestions from a consultative committee to be formed with prominent industrialists from the State and representatives of various countries located here, Shettar said.

In recent days, the Minister held consultations with industrialists such as co-founder and Non-Executive Chairman of Infosys Ltd, Nandan M Nilekani, Executive Chairperson of Biocon Ltd, Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw and Chairman of early-stage startup accelerator and venture fund Axilor Ventures Senapathy (Kris) Gopalakrishnan to fine-tune the States outreach push.

Shettar also held interactions with industry bodies, including Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), the Federation of Karnataka Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FKCCI), Bangalore Chamber of Industry and Commerce (BCIC) and Karnataka Small Scale Industries Association (KASSIA).

Industrialists who took part in the deliberations suggested to the government to focus on ease of doing business and improving the single window clearance system for approvals, as the Minister spelt out government's intent of further improving the investment climate to attract industries to Karnataka.

To boost the industry sentiment in the State, they also stressed the need on easing land acquisition regulations, and leveraging the knowledge base of Bengaluru to promote technology-based manufacturing.

"Given the interest shown by some companies in moving their manufacturing bases out of China, the industry leaders recommended that the State government identify a target list of 100 firms to reach out to for attracting to the State, and work out a strategy to bring them to Karnataka," an Industry department official said.

The industry leaders assured cooperation from the private sector in reaching out to and facilitating interactions with CEOs of these companies.

Shettar said restrictions on acquisition of agriculture land for starting industries have now been relaxed with the passage of an amendment to the land reforms act in the recent Legislature session.

This would facilitate immediate land allotment to industries, he added.

The Minister has also submitted a proposal to the Chief Minister on relaxing labour laws.

Secretary General of industry body ASSOCHAM, Deepak Sood, told news agency recently that there is a broader consensus that the global manufacturing supply chain would be more spread than concentrated in major economies like China.

"If India comes out of the present crisis with minimum of impact, we can be the destination of choice for the global manufacturing giants in different sectors like electronics, computer hardware, pharmaceuticals, including medical devices, automobile, including components and other engineering products," Sood had said.

Gopalakrishnan, also co-founder of Infosys and former CII President, said India has to target companies which have operations in China, reach out to them, understand what their needs are and hold discussions with them.

"We have to make sure that their requirements are addressed, be it with regard to land, office space, faster approvals, and some concessions on local taxes. It depends on the businesses that the companies are in, and if we are able to respond to those requests, I think we will be able to attract them", he told news agency.

"All states will compete for this business (foreign investment)," Gopalakrishnan added.