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From March through May, around 1 crore migrant workers fled India’s megacities, afraid to be unemployed, hungry and far from family during the world’s biggest anti-Covid-19 lockdown.

Now, as Asia’s third-largest economy slowly reopens, the effects of that massive relocation are rippling across the country. Urban industries don’t have enough workers to get back to capacity, and rural states worry that without the flow of remittances from the city, already poor families will be even worse off -- and a bigger strain on state coffers.

Meanwhile, migrant workers aren’t expected to return to the cities as long as the virus is spreading and work is uncertain. States are rolling out stimulus programs, but India’s economy is hurtling for its first contraction in more than 40 years, and without enough jobs, a volatile political climate gets more so.

“This will be a huge economic shock, especially for households of short-term, cyclical migrants, who tend to come from vulnerable, poor and low-caste and tribal backgrounds,” said Varun Aggarwal, a founder of India Migration Now, a research and advocacy group based in Mumbai.

In the first 15 days of India’s lockdown, domestic remittances dropped by 90%, according to Rishi Gupta, chief executive officer of Mumbai-based Fino Paytech Ltd., which operates the country’s biggest payments bank.

By the end of May, remittances were back to around 1750 rupees ($23), about half the pre-Covid average. Gupta’s not sure how soon it’ll fully recover. “Migrants are in no hurry to come back,” Gupta said. “They’re saying that they’re not thinking of going back at all.”

If workers stay in their home states long term, policymakers will have more than remittances to worry about. If consumption falls and the new surplus of labor drives wages down, Agarwal said, “there will also be a second-order shock to the local economy. Overall, not looking good.”

India announced a $277 billion stimulus package in May and followed it up with a $7 billion program aimed at creating jobs for 125 days for migrants in villages across 116 districts. Separately, local authorities are also looking for solutions.

Officials in Bihar have identified 2,500 acres of land that could be made available to investors, said Sushil Modi, deputy chief minister of Bihar, a state in east India. “We can use this crisis as an opportunity to speed up reforms,” he said.

The investors haven’t materialised yet, and in the meanwhile, state governments are relying on the national cash-for-work program that guarantees 100 days worth of wages per household.

Skilled workers don’t want to do manual labor offered through the program, and even if they did, says Amitabh Kundu of RIS, many think of it as beneath their station. “There will be an increase in social tensions,” he predicts. “Caste may again start playing a role. It’s absolute chaos.”

For skilled workers, initiatives vary:

* Uttar Pradesh, which received 3.2 million people, is compiling lists of skilled workers who need employment and trying to place them with local manufacturing and real estate industry associations. So far, the government says, it’s placed 300,000 people with construction and real estate firms.

* Bihar has placed returners in state-run infrastructure projects and hired others to stitch uniforms and make furniture for government-run schools, even as they waited in quarantine centres, said Pratyay Amrit, head of the state’s disaster management department.

* The eastern state of Odisha announced an urban wage employment program aimed at putting as many as 450,000 day labourers to work through September. Some 25,000 people have been employed, so far, under the scheme, G. Mathivathanan, principal secretary for housing and urban development said.

Attracting Investments

It’s not clear any of this will be enough to make a dent, says Ravi Srivastava, professor at New Delhi-based Institute of Human Development, adding that the states don’t have much of a track record on economic development.

“It was the failure of these states to improve governance and put development plans in place that led to the out-migration in the first place,” he said.

But officials and workers’ rights advocates see opportunity. Uttar Pradesh has established liaisons to encourage companies from the US, Japan and South Korea to establish manufacturing in the state. There and in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the government has made labour laws more friendly to employers, making it easier to hire and fire workers.

Modi, the minister from Bihar, said the migration may also give workers--historically a disenfranchised group--new power, particularly as urban centres struggle. “The way industries treated workers during the lockdown -- didn’t pay them, the living conditions were poor -- now these industries will realize the value of this force,” Modi said.

“In the days to come, labour will emerge as a force that can’t be ignored anymore,” he added. “That’s the new normal. We will work out how to ensure dignity, rights to our people who are going to work in other states.”

Bihar is due for elections by November, a vote that could be an early test of the mass migration’s political consequences. The state is currently governed by a coalition that includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. Amitabh Kundu, a fellow at the Research and Information System for Developing Countries, a New Delhi-based government think-tank, said migrant workers are likely to be angry voters.

“Chief ministers are telling these migrants that they will not have to go back for work,” he said. “But their capacity to do something miraculous in the next four to five months is doubtful. If they can retain even one-fourth of the migrants, I would call it a success.”

New Delhi, Mar 22: The exercise to update the National Population Register (NPR) and the first phase of the Census 2021, scheduled to begin from April 1, are likely to be deferred for an indefinite period due to Coronavirus pandemic, officials said.

A formal order on this effect is expected within a day or two.

Discussions are going on at the highest level of the government and in all probability, the NPR and house listing phase of the Census work will be deferred till the threat of the Coronavirus is over, a home ministry official said.

The exercise to update NPR and the housing listing phase of the Census is scheduled to be carried out across the country from April 1 to September 30.

Last week, the home ministry had said the preparation for the Census 2021 and updation of the NPR were at its peak and they will begin from April 1.

The ministry said this after a conference of the Directors of the Census Operations on status of preparatory work around Census 2021 and NPR updation.

There has been opposition from several state governments to the NPR and some of the assemblies even adopted resolutions expressing reservations on the exercise.

The states which have been opposing the NPR include Kerala, West Bengal, Punjab, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Bihar.

However, most of them also said they will cooperate with the house listing phase of the Census.

The objective of the NPR is to create a comprehensive identity database of every usual resident in the country.

The database would contain demographic as well as biometric particulars, they said.

The notification for the house listing census and NPR exercise came recently amid furore over the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

The home ministry officials said most of the states have notified provisions related to the NPR.

The NPR is a register of usual residents of the country. It is being prepared at the local (village/sub-town), subdistrict, district, state and national levels under provisions of the Citizenship Act, 1955 and the Citizenship (Registration of Citizens and Issue of National Identity Cards) Rules, 2003.

The data for NPR was last collected in 2010 along with the house listing phase of the Census 2011. Updating of this data was done during 2015 by conducting door to door survey.

While updating the register in 2015, the government has asked details like Aadhaar and their mobile number.

This time, the information related to their driving licence and voter ID card may also be gathered, the officials said, adding that PAN card details will not be collected as part of this exercise.

Though information regarding the place of birth of parents will be sought, it is up to the residents whether to respond the question as it is voluntary.

For the purposes of the NPR, a 'resident' is defined as a person who has lived in a local area for the past six months or more, or a person who intends to reside in that area for the next six months.

The law compulsorily seeks to register every citizen of India and issue a national identity card.

The demographic details of every individual are required for every usual resident: name, relationship to head of household, father's name, mother's name, spouse's name (if married), sex, date of birth, marital status, place of birth, nationality (as declared), present address of usual residence, duration of stay at present address, permanent residential address, occupation, educational qualification.

The Union Cabinet has approved Rs 3,941.35 crore for the NPR exercise.

Bhopal, Jun 20: A senior BJP MLA in Madhya Pradesh tested COVID-19 positive hours after he cast his vote for the Rajya Sabha polls in the state and attended party meetings, an official said on Saturday. The legislator's wife has also tested positive for the infection, he said.

Voting for three Rajya Sabha seats in the state took place on Friday.

The couple's test reports came on Friday night and the news of the MLA's infection triggered panic among other MLAs with some of them reaching hospitals to get themselves tested.

"The MLA and his wife were found infected with COVID- 19 in the tests conducted by a private laboratory. We are examining their condition and making a decision whether they need to be hospitalised or home quarantined," a health department official told.

He said that the MLA's contact tracing has been initiated.

"Further tests are also being conducted," he said.

He is the second legislator in Madhya Pradesh, who was tested coronavirus positive.

Earlier, a Congress MLA was found infected. He had voted for the Rajya Sabha polls on Friday after reaching the state assembly complex wearing a PPE suit.

Talking to , a member of the BJP MLA's family said that the medical team was called on Friday afternoon for the COVID-19 test after the legislator's wife complained of uneasiness.

"The MLA and his wife gave the samples to the medical team for the COVID-19 tests on Friday afternoon and they were told at night that both of them have tested positive for the infection," he said.

After the news of BJP MLA testing positive spread, a senior BJP MLA from Mandsaur, Yashpal Singh Sisodiya, reached government-run J P Hospital here along with two other party MLAs.

Talking to reporters, Sisodiya said, "I came here along with two other MLAs from our division- Dilip Makwana (Ratlam Rural) and Devilal Dhakad (Garoth)- after we came to know through media and social media that one of the MLAs from our division has tested positive for COVID-19."

"We don't have any symptoms, but came to test for COVID-19 as a precautionary measure," he said.

Dhakad said that he came for testing as he had dined with the MLA two days back.

Talking to , Madhya Pradesh State Assembly's Principal Secretary A P Singh said that all the precautionary measures were taken during the Rajya Sabha polling.

"All employees were in safety gears during the Rajya Sabha election process. The assembly campus was being sanitised every 15-20 minutes during the polling process...We are now going through the CCTV footage to trace those who had come in his contact," he said.

Congress MLA and former minister P C Sharma said that those who came in contact with the BJP legislator should be traced and quarantined.

"The employees and MLAs who came in contact with him during the voting process should be tested," Sharma said.