Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Agencies
November 3, 2018

Istanbul, Nov 3: The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could alter the power dynamic in the Middle East by strengthening Turkey's influence at Saudi Arabia's expense as they compete for leadership of the Islamic world, analysts say.

This certainly appears to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and its allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider a terrorist group.

The killing inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2 has already severely tarnished Saudi Arabia's global reputation.

But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the oil-rich Gulf nation's de facto leader known by his initials MBS, that could permanently damage Riyadh's influence in the region.

After initially insisting Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed, then saying he died in a brawl, the Saudi regime finally stated he was killed by a "rogue operation" and arrested 18 suspects, some with links to the crown prince.

Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, even potentially leading to the royal family removing him from power -- though that seems unlikely.

"The killing of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to pressure Saudi Arabia and work towards presenting Turkey as the new leader of the Muslim world," said Lina Khatib, director of Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geo-political gamble for Turkey and so far it looks like it is playing the game masterfully. But Turkey alone will not be able to push for the removal of MBS. The ball lies in the American court," she added.

For Erdogan, promoting the Muslim Brotherhood — which Saudi Arabia has sought to marginalise in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi — is at the heart of this power struggle.

The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh for its ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017.

"I think that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity to push back against a triple entente in the Middle East that opposes his policies. That triple entente is composed of MBS, MBZ's (Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan) UAE and Sisi's Egypt," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute.

"These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policies of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because MBS is vulnerable."

But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy, said "it remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to leverage this conjuncture and turn it into a permanent advantage raising Turkey's regional influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia".

Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the Khashoggi case was the "latest chapter in Turkey and Saudi Arabia's ongoing contest over which country is better" to lead the Muslim world.

"Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a way to cut Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension, Saudi Arabia, down to size," Heras added.

By not directly pointing the blame at the crown prince over Khashoggi, Erdogan is seeking to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs think-tank.

"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken MBS in the international arena so basically he is rolling the dice these days trying to figure out how to maximise his profit after this huge Saudi blunder," he told news agency.

While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West -- especially the United States -- is wary of the group and wants to focus any pressure on the crown prince towards ending the Yemen war and lifting the blockade on Qatar, the experts said.

"I expect the blockade on Doha will likely come to an end in the near future and the Saudis find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bitar noted that the US administration relies on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israel-Palestinian conflict as well as containing Iran, long a Saudi foe.

Washington could also push the crown prince towards "a rapprochement with Israel and to maintain a hawkish line towards Iran", Bitar added.

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News Network
May 5,2020

Abu Dhabi, May 5: The overall real GDP (gross domestic product) of the United Arab Emirates is estimated to have grown by 1.7 percent in 2019, the country’s central bank said in a statement on Monday carried by WAM.

"The UAE hydrocarbon sector is estimated to have exhibited a growth of 3.4 percent in 2019. However, non-oil activities advanced at a softer pace growing by 1.0 percent. As a result, overall real GDP is estimated by FCSA (Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority) to have grown by 1.7 percent in 2019," said the financial regulator in its Annual Report 2019.

"The spread of COVID-19 is expected to impact trade and supply chain movements, coupled with travel restrictions which paves way for high volatility in capital markets and commodity prices. While the outbreak is expected to negatively affect the global and domestic economies, it is still early to gauge the scale of the economic fallout," the report added.

The report noted that the higher hydrocarbon output, as well as growth in non-hydrocarbon economic activity, supported the pace of the country's overall economic growth in 2019.

"Meanwhile, the fading effect of VAT, the appreciating Dirham, lower energy prices and decline in rents pushed inflation in negative territory. However, the employment rate registered a steady rebound. Looking ahead, the economic outlook for 2020 remains uncertain owing to the COVID-19 outbreak," the report elaborated.

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News Network
March 6,2020

Riyadh, Mar 6: Saudi Arabia on Thursday emptied Islam's holiest site for sterilisation over fears of the new coronavirus, an unprecedented shutdown state media said will last while the year-round Umrah pilgrimage is suspended.

The kingdom halted the pilgrimage for its own citizens and residents on Wednesday, on top of restrictions announced last week on foreign pilgrims to stop the disease from spreading.

State television relayed images of an empty white-tiled area surrounding the Kaaba -- a large black cube structure inside Mecca's Grand Mosque -- which is usually packed with tens of thousands of pilgrims.

As a "precautionary measure", the area will remain closed as long as the umrah suspension lasts but prayers will be allowed inside the mosque, state-run Saudi Press Agency cited a mosque official as saying.

Additionally, the Grand Mosque and the Prophet's Mosque in the city of Medina will be closed an hour after the evening "Isha" prayer and will reopen an hour before the dawn "Fajr" prayer to allow cleaning and sterilisation, the official added.

A group of cleaners was seen scrubbing and mopping the tiles around the Kaaba, a structure draped in gold-embroidered gold cloth towards which Muslims around the world pray.

A Saudi official told news agency the decision to close the area was "unprecedented".

On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia suspended the umrah for its own citizens and residents over fears of the coronavirus spreading to Islam's holiest cities.

The move came after authorities last week suspended visas for the umrah and barred citizens from the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council from entering Mecca and Medina.

Saudi Arabia on Thursday declared three new coronavirus cases, bringing the total number of reported infections to five.

The umrah, which refers to the Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca that can be undertaken at any time of year, attracts millions of Muslims from across the globe annually.

The decision to suspend the umrah mirrors a precautionary approach across the Gulf to cancel mass gatherings from concerts to sporting events.

It comes ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan starting in late April, which is a favoured period for pilgrimage.

It is unclear how the coronavirus will affect the hajj, due to start in late July.

Some 2.5 million faithful travelled to Saudi Arabia from across the world in 2019 to take part in the hajj, which is one of the five pillars of Islam as Muslim obligations are known.

The event is a massive logistical challenge for Saudi authorities, with colossal crowds cramming into relatively small holy sites, making attendees vulnerable to contagion.

Already reeling from slumping oil prices, the kingdom risks losing billions of dollars annually from religious tourism as it tightens access to the sites.

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Agencies
April 27,2020

Riyad, Apr 27: The Saudi-led Arab Coalition supporting Yemen’s UN-recognized government on Monday urged all parties to end any escalation of hostilities and return to the status that existed before the Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared self-rule.

In a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), the coalition emphasized “the need to cancel any step that violates the Riyadh agreement and work to accelerate its implementation.” 

On Sunday, the United Arab Emirates-backed STC scrapped a peace deal with the internationally recognized government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

Accusing the government of corruption and mismanagement, the separatists said they would “self-govern” the key southern port city of Aden and other southern provinces.

Yemen’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Al-Hadhrami described the move as a “resumption of its (STC’s) armed insurgency and rejection and complete withdrawal from the Riyadh agreement.” 

Authorities in Yemen’s southern provinces of Hadramawt, Abyan, Shabwa, Al-Mahra and the remote island of Socotra also rejected the separatist group’s claim to self-rule.

The government said local and security authorities in the five provinces dismissed the move as a “clear and definite coup.” 

Some of the provinces issued their own statements condemning it.

The coalition appealed to all parties to “give priority to the interests of the Yemeni people over any other interests”. 

It also urged the parties involved not to lose their focus on working to achieve the goal of restoring the state, ending the Houthi “coup” and “countering terrorist organizations”.

“The Coalition has and will continue to undertake practical and systematic steps to implement the Riyadh Agreement between the parties to unite Yemeni ranks, restore state institutions and combat the scourge of terrorism,” the statement said. “The responsibility rests with the signatories to the Agreement to undertake national steps toward implementing its provisions, which were signed and agreed upon with a time matrix for implementation.”

The STC has been part of the coalition-backed forces fighting the Iran-backed Houthi militia, which seized control of the Yemeni capital Sanaa and other provinces in 2014.

The Houthi “coup” has led to the formation of the Saudi-led coalition, which had since driven away the Houthis from the south and other provinces. President Hadi’s government has made Aden as its temporary seat.

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