Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Beirut, Apr 5: The novel coronavirus has put global trade on hold, placed half of the world population in confinement and has the potential to topple governments and reshape diplomatic relations.

The United Nations has appealed for ceasefires in all the major conflicts rocking the planet, with its chief Antonio Guterres on Friday warning "the worst is yet to come". But it remains unclear what the pandemic's impact will be on the multiple wars roiling the Middle East.

Here is an overview of the impact so far on the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq:

The COVID-19 outbreak turned into a pandemic just as a ceasefire reached by the two main foreign power brokers in Syria's nine-year-old war -- Russia and Turkey -- was taking effect.

The three million people living in the ceasefire zone, in the country's northwestern region of Idlib, had little hope the deal would hold.

Yet fears the coronavirus could spread like wildfire across the devastated country appear to have given the truce an extended lease of life.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the month of March saw the lowest civilian death toll since the conflict started in 2011, with 103 deaths.

The ability of the multiple administrations in Syria -- the Damascus government, the autonomous Kurdish administration in the northeast and the jihadist-led alliance that runs Idlib -- to manage the coronavirus threat is key to their credibility.

"This epidemic is a way for Damascus to show that the Syrian state is efficient and all territories should be returned under its governance," analyst Fabrice Balanche said.

However the pandemic and the global mobilisation it requires could precipitate the departure of US-led troops from Syria and neighbouring Iraq.

This in turn could create a vacuum in which the Islamic State jihadist group, still reeling from the demise of its "caliphate" a year ago, could seek to step up its attacks.

The Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels initially responded positively to the UN appeal for a ceasefire, as did neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which leads a military coalition in support of the government.

That rare glimmer of hope in the five-year-old conflict was short-lived however and last week Saudi air defences intercepted ballistic missiles over Riyadh and a border city fired by the Iran-backed rebels.

The Saudi-led coalition retaliated by striking Huthi targets in the rebel-held capital Sanaa on Monday.

Talks have repeatedly faltered but the UN envoy Martin Griffiths is holding daily consultations in a bid to clinch a nationwide ceasefire.

More flare-ups in Yemen could compound a humanitarian crisis often described as the worst in the world and invite a coronavirus outbreak of catastrophic proportions.

In a country where the health infrastructure has collapsed, where water is a rare commodity and where 24 million people require humanitarian assistance, the population fears being wiped out if a ceasefire doesn't allow for adequate aid.

"People will end up dying on the streets, bodies will be rotting in the open," said Mohammed Omar, a taxi driver in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida.

Much like Yemen, the main protagonists in the Libyan conflict initially welcomed the UN ceasefire call but swiftly resumed hostilities.

Fierce fighting has rocked the south of the capital Tripoli in recent days, suggesting the risk of a major coronavirus outbreak is not enough to make guns fall silent.

Turkey has recently played a key role in the conflict, throwing its weight behind the UN-recognised Government of National Accord.

Fabrice Balanche predicted that accelerated Western disengagement from Middle East conflicts could limit Turkish support to the GNA.

That could eventually favour forces loyal to eastern-based strongman Khalifa Haftar, who launched an assault on Tripoli one year ago and has the backing of Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Western countries have been hit hardest by the pandemic, which could prompt them to divert both military resources and peace-brokering capacity from foreign conflicts.

A report by the International Crisis Group said European officials had reported that efforts to secure a ceasefire in Libya were no longer receiving high-level attention due to the pandemic.

Iraq is no longer gripped by fully-fledged conflict but it remains vulnerable to an IS resurgence in some regions and its two main foreign backers are at each other's throats.

Iran and the United States are two of the countries most affected by the coronavirus but there has been no sign of any let-up in their battle for influence that has largely played out on Iraqi soil.

With most non-US troops in the coalition now gone and some bases evacuated, American personnel are now regrouped in a handful of locations in Iraq.

Washington has deployed Patriot air defence missiles, prompting fears of a fresh escalation with Tehran, whose proxies it blames for a spate of rocket attacks on bases housing US troops.

Apr 12: Parents in Abu Dhabi affected by the Covid-19 situation can seek help from the authorities in paying off their children's school fees, it was announced on Sunday.

The Abu Dhabi Media Office took to Twitter to announce the reprieve. The Authority for Social Contribution - Ma'an and Abu Dhabi Department of Education and Knowledge (Adek) "will support parents with children attending private schools in #AbuDhabi who are affected by the current economic challenges, by paying school fees or providing devices for distance learning".

The move is part of the 'Together We Are Good' programme which aims to support residents impacted by the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis in the country.

"Parents can call the toll-free helpline on 800-3088 or register their request at http://togetherwearegood.ae. The closing date for fee assistance applications is 23rd April 2020," the media office tweeted.

May 18: As the UAE authorities have asked all residents to avoid gatherings, it is clear that - for the first time - it's going to be a #StayHome Eid. But experts say that although it will be different, the celebration will be just as meaningful.

It is important to remember that the Eid prayer can be performed at home either individually or with family members under the sane roof, said Dr Mohammed Eyada Ayoub Alkobaisi, a Grand Mufti with the Islamic Affairs and Charitable Activities Department in Dubai.

Dr Alkobaisi said this prayer is a highly recommended Sunnah or practice urged by the Prophet Muhammad (Peace be upon him).

"Eid Prayer must be performed openly, unless we are prevented for an acceptable reason, such as fear for self, wellbeing, property, etc." Under the current circumstances, prayers can be offered from home, he said.

But what the faithful will likely miss is listening to the khutbah or the sermon of Eid with a crowd. The sight of people pouring out into the streets and coming together for prayer and worship would not be unfolding this time.

Dr Sheikh Mohamed Ashmawy, an Islamic researcher, said that in this time of Covid, doing away with several Eid traditions would be necessary for everyone's safety.

"The ban is is line with the ongoing preventive measures to curb the spread of Covid-19," he said.

However, it doesn't mean people can't celebrate and exchange heartfelt greetings, he added.

"We can greet each other remotely on the phone or via social media networks."

Islamic researcher Sheikh Mohamed Wasfi said audio-visual smart apps have made communication much easier, even bringing people closer than before.

"Of course, families and friends wish to hug, shake hands and see each other personally, but this will be a big risk these days," he said.

Sheikh Asadullah Del Mohamed, an imam, reminded that banquets, parties and visits are discouraged to avoid crowds and gathering.

Recently, 30 people from two families tested positive for the virus after breaking social distancing rules and holding a gathering.

Faithful's sentiments

Ibrahim Abdelkader, an Egyptian auditor, said that while it would be sad to spend Eid Al Fitr at home, he understood that it is for everyone's safety.

"Better to stay home than be sorry," said Ahmad Jamil, a Syrian resident.

Rashid Saeed, an Emirati national, said people are advised to just check on each other by phone or video and voice call apps.

"While Eid prayers is banned in congregation, it's not acceptable at all for some people to carelessly gather and exchange visits," he said.

Abdullah Al Saleh, an Emirati national, said he and all his relatives used to gather for breakfast after the Eid prayer - but this time, they are ready to do it in their own homes.

Mohamed Ibrahim, another Emirati, said he would surely miss seeing his kids happily prancing around with their new clothes and enjoying the outdoors like every year.

"But, I agree as it is for their health, safety and wellbeing," he said.

THINGS TO REMEMBER IN CELEBRATING EID THIS YEAR

>Perform the Eid prayer at home, individually or with family members living with you

>Exchange greetings with loved ones and friends via phone calls or online

>No hugs

>No handshakes

>No gatherings

>No visits to other homes