Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Agencies
November 3, 2018

Istanbul, Nov 3: The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could alter the power dynamic in the Middle East by strengthening Turkey's influence at Saudi Arabia's expense as they compete for leadership of the Islamic world, analysts say.

This certainly appears to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and its allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider a terrorist group.

The killing inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2 has already severely tarnished Saudi Arabia's global reputation.

But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the oil-rich Gulf nation's de facto leader known by his initials MBS, that could permanently damage Riyadh's influence in the region.

After initially insisting Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed, then saying he died in a brawl, the Saudi regime finally stated he was killed by a "rogue operation" and arrested 18 suspects, some with links to the crown prince.

Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, even potentially leading to the royal family removing him from power -- though that seems unlikely.

"The killing of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to pressure Saudi Arabia and work towards presenting Turkey as the new leader of the Muslim world," said Lina Khatib, director of Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geo-political gamble for Turkey and so far it looks like it is playing the game masterfully. But Turkey alone will not be able to push for the removal of MBS. The ball lies in the American court," she added.

For Erdogan, promoting the Muslim Brotherhood — which Saudi Arabia has sought to marginalise in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi — is at the heart of this power struggle.

The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh for its ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017.

"I think that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity to push back against a triple entente in the Middle East that opposes his policies. That triple entente is composed of MBS, MBZ's (Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan) UAE and Sisi's Egypt," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute.

"These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policies of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because MBS is vulnerable."

But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy, said "it remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to leverage this conjuncture and turn it into a permanent advantage raising Turkey's regional influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia".

Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the Khashoggi case was the "latest chapter in Turkey and Saudi Arabia's ongoing contest over which country is better" to lead the Muslim world.

"Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a way to cut Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension, Saudi Arabia, down to size," Heras added.

By not directly pointing the blame at the crown prince over Khashoggi, Erdogan is seeking to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs think-tank.

"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken MBS in the international arena so basically he is rolling the dice these days trying to figure out how to maximise his profit after this huge Saudi blunder," he told news agency.

While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West -- especially the United States -- is wary of the group and wants to focus any pressure on the crown prince towards ending the Yemen war and lifting the blockade on Qatar, the experts said.

"I expect the blockade on Doha will likely come to an end in the near future and the Saudis find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bitar noted that the US administration relies on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israel-Palestinian conflict as well as containing Iran, long a Saudi foe.

Washington could also push the crown prince towards "a rapprochement with Israel and to maintain a hawkish line towards Iran", Bitar added.

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Agencies
March 23,2020

Riyadh, Mar 23: King Salman on Sunday issued an order imposing a curfew across Saudi Arabia from Monday evening to control the spread of the COVID-19 disease.

A royal court statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said the curfew will start at 7 p.m. until 6 a.m. every day for 21 days from the evening of 28 Rajab 1441 in the Hijri calendar, equivalent to March 23, 2020 in the Gregorian calendar.

King Salman's order followed an announcement by the Health Ministry of 119 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, raising the total number in the Kingdom to 511.

The order enjoins citizens and residents alike to stay in their homes during the curfew hours for their own safety.

The statement said the Ministry of Interior will undertake the necessary measures to implement the curfew, and all civil and military authorities are ordered to cooperate fully.

Exclusions

A subsequent statement issued by the Ministry of Interior and carried by SPA said those excluded from the curfew are workers from the following vital industries and government services:

• Food sector (points of sale) such as catering and supermarkets And poultry and vegetable shops, meat, bakeries, food factories and laboratories;

• Health sector, such as pharmacies and the like, medical clinics (dispensaries), hospitals, laboratories, factories, factories and materials and medical devices;

• Media sector in its various means;

• Transportation sector, such as those transporting goods, parcels, customs clearance, warehouses, warehouses, logistics services, supply chains for the health sector, the food sector, and port operations;

• E-commerce activities such as those working in the electronic procurement applications for the excluded activities and those working in the delivery applications of the excluded activities;

• Accommodation services activities such as hotels and furnished apartments;

• Energy sector such as gas stations and emergency services for the electric company;

• Financial services and insurance sector, such as direct accidents (Najm), urgent health insurance services (approvals), and other insurance services;

• Telecom sector as Internet and communication network operators;

• Water sector, such as the water company emergency services and home drinking water delivery service (graying).

Additional exclusions

The Interior Ministry statement also said movement during the curfew time will be allowed for security, military and health cars, government regulatory services vehicles, and activity vehicles excluded in the vital industries and services mentioned above. 

Delivery services through smart device applications (express delivery services) during the curfew will be allowed for food and drug needs and other essential goods and services that are excluded and delivered to homes. Excluded activities can be known by calling the toll-free number in all regions of the Kingdom 999, except for the Makkah Al-Mukarramah region, which is called at 911.

Muezzins will be allowed to access mosques to lift the call to prayer at the time of the curfew.

Workers in diplomatic missions and international organizations and the like residing in the Diplomatic Quarter will be allowed to move during the curfew period to and from their business headquarters in the neighborhood.

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News Network
April 11,2020

Dubai, Apr 11: The UAE has conducted over 49,000 Covid-19 tests among UAE citizens and residents, it was revealed on Friday, using state-of-the-art technology in line with the 's plans to intensify virus screening in order to bring the disease under control.

The accelerated investigative measures helped detect 370 new coronavirus cases among various nationalities, all of whom are in a stable condition and receiving the necessary care.

This took the total number of infections in the country to 3,360, according to a MoHaP statement.

The Ministry also revealed the death of two patients suffering from Covid-19. Both of the deceased were Asian nationals and had pre-existing chronic illnesses. The total number of deaths has now reached 16.

The Ministry expressed its sincere condolences to the families of the deceased and wished a speedy recovery to all patients, calling on the public to cooperate with health authorities and comply with all precautionary measures, particularly social distancing protocols, to ensure the safety and protection of the public.

The Ministry also announced the full recovery of 150 new cases after receiving the necessary treatment, taking to 418 the total of those now recovered from the virus in the UAE.

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Gulf News
May 29,2020

Dubai: There aren’t that many job vacancies right now – but be prepared for a 15-20 per cent cut in salary expectations even for those positions that are still open. Businesses in the UAE are definitely not in a generous mood when it comes to hiring, with salary cuts now part of the new normal.

And they are definitely not willing to take on new hires without extracting some cost benefit from them. “We have seen major [salary] cuts across the board in hospitality, real estate, professional services and in retail,” said Vijay Gandhi, regional head at Korn Ferry Digital, the recruitment consultancy.

“And once the headcount correction is complete in [the local] financial services and energy sector, we may see more cuts in rewards and benefits in these categories as well.”

The salary cuts are slowly extending their way into the healthcare sector as well – just about every non-COVID-19 facing medical category is coming across cuts in the number of working hours and, by extension, their take home packages.

By end of June, more businesses and sectors in the UAE will have a better understanding of their short-term revenue prospects. By then, they will also have a better reading on what their staff strength should be – and whether there should be more trimming of the workforce. Or whether they should consider a few hires as well.

A long summer
So, realistically, it could be September before such decisions need to be taken. The coming weeks will then prove to be laden with anxiety for those who are expecting to land a job option after being laid off at their current employers.

There are multiple instances of recruitment decisions having been made in February/March, and then the companies rescinding those offers to the chosen candidates citing the business uncertainty.

“The decision to hire is taking longer – so job creation is now 4-6 weeks from interview and selection compared to 4-6 days in the past,” said Gandhi.

The lucky ones
Recently, free zones and other entities had made it easier for personnel on the visa of one entity being able to smoothly transfer to another if they are likely to be made redundant. “We are seeing more flexibility being offered by the authorities given the circumstances, and the visa transfer process is happening,” said Gandhi.

“But in the vast majority of cases, businesses are going to wait and watch before normal hiring activity starts. Organizations will look to hire from September.”

A few hires are still happening
Even in the business turmoil set off by COVID-19, a few categories are still offering jobs. At the entry level, logistics services personnel and drivers with experience remain in demand.

Not just “routine jobs, there have been confirmations in more technical roles such as procurement and operations in healthcare and e-commerce,” said Gandhi. “Employers should keep an eye for good talent and have the talent acquisition team actively looking for good profiles.

“As such, organizations are not only looking at “right sizing” in numbers but also “future proofing” on what kind of skilled talent will help them in the post-COVID-19 world.”

But for the candidates, the present will be about waiting around for the call to come.

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