Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Agencies
November 3, 2018

Istanbul, Nov 3: The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could alter the power dynamic in the Middle East by strengthening Turkey's influence at Saudi Arabia's expense as they compete for leadership of the Islamic world, analysts say.

This certainly appears to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and its allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider a terrorist group.

The killing inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2 has already severely tarnished Saudi Arabia's global reputation.

But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the oil-rich Gulf nation's de facto leader known by his initials MBS, that could permanently damage Riyadh's influence in the region.

After initially insisting Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed, then saying he died in a brawl, the Saudi regime finally stated he was killed by a "rogue operation" and arrested 18 suspects, some with links to the crown prince.

Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, even potentially leading to the royal family removing him from power -- though that seems unlikely.

"The killing of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to pressure Saudi Arabia and work towards presenting Turkey as the new leader of the Muslim world," said Lina Khatib, director of Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geo-political gamble for Turkey and so far it looks like it is playing the game masterfully. But Turkey alone will not be able to push for the removal of MBS. The ball lies in the American court," she added.

For Erdogan, promoting the Muslim Brotherhood — which Saudi Arabia has sought to marginalise in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi — is at the heart of this power struggle.

The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh for its ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017.

"I think that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity to push back against a triple entente in the Middle East that opposes his policies. That triple entente is composed of MBS, MBZ's (Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan) UAE and Sisi's Egypt," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute.

"These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policies of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because MBS is vulnerable."

But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy, said "it remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to leverage this conjuncture and turn it into a permanent advantage raising Turkey's regional influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia".

Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the Khashoggi case was the "latest chapter in Turkey and Saudi Arabia's ongoing contest over which country is better" to lead the Muslim world.

"Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a way to cut Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension, Saudi Arabia, down to size," Heras added.

By not directly pointing the blame at the crown prince over Khashoggi, Erdogan is seeking to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs think-tank.

"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken MBS in the international arena so basically he is rolling the dice these days trying to figure out how to maximise his profit after this huge Saudi blunder," he told news agency.

While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West -- especially the United States -- is wary of the group and wants to focus any pressure on the crown prince towards ending the Yemen war and lifting the blockade on Qatar, the experts said.

"I expect the blockade on Doha will likely come to an end in the near future and the Saudis find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bitar noted that the US administration relies on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israel-Palestinian conflict as well as containing Iran, long a Saudi foe.

Washington could also push the crown prince towards "a rapprochement with Israel and to maintain a hawkish line towards Iran", Bitar added.

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News Network
April 24,2020

Apr 24: Dubai's Supreme Committee of Crisis and Disaster Management has announced partial easing of restrictions on public movement in the emirate starting from Friday amid the COVID-19 outbreak.

The announcement is in line with the decisions of the Ministry of Health and Prevention and the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA), a statement released late on Thursday said.

The move, which coincides with the start of the fasting month of Ramzan, will allow increased freedom of movement while ensuring the continuation of strict precautionary and preventive measures, the statement said.

The Committee has also outlined a new set of guidelines on movement and a list of exempted commercial activities and vital sectors, it added.

The decision to reduce restrictions on movement in Dubai follows a careful assessment of the current situation and analysis of reports from various authorities working to combat the pandemic, the committee said.

Underlining the emirate’s success in countering the spread of the virus, it said that stringent measures undertaken over the last three weeks have significantly helped to mitigate the crisis.

It further stressed that despite the partial easing of restrictions on movement, people will not be allowed to hold public or private gatherings and those who breach the guidelines will face legal action.

The need to ensure the safety and wellbeing of the community cannot be underestimated, the Committee stressed.

"Despite the difficult circumstances the world is facing today, the UAE has set an example for dealing with the crisis. This was also made possible through the commitment of all individuals and institutions both in the private and public sector,” the committee said in the statement.

“All measures undertaken by the country have been driven by the objective of safeguarding everyone’s safety and wellbeing,” it added.

Public transport (bus and metro), restaurants and cafes (except for buffet and shisha), retail sector (malls, high-street outlets and souqs), wholesale sector and maintenance shops will be allowed to operate under certain conditions, it said.

Shopping malls, markets and commercial outlets will be open daily from 12 pm to 10 pm. Restaurants and shops are allowed to operate at a maximum of 30 per cent capacity at shopping malls, it said.

Malls and retail outlets are not allowed to hold entertainment events to avoid congestion and crowding, it added.

Restaurants and cafés too have been allowed to operate but are not permitted to serve shisha and buffet. Dine-in customers are allowed but should occupy only a maximum of 30 per cent of the outlet’s capacity and only single-use cutlery can be used at restaurants and cafes, it said.

However, family entertainment facilities, cinemas, changing rooms and prayer rooms will not be allowed to operate. Hotels will be allowed to operate without opening pools, gyms, sauna and massage parlours.

A maximum of 30 per cent of the workforce of all organisations will be allowed to work from their offices while the rest will be required to work from home.

As part of the first phase of easing of restrictions, the stringent curbs on public movement will now be limited to the period between 10 pm to 6 am. During this period, the public will be allowed to leave their homes only for medical emergencies.

Individuals will be able to leave their homes between 6 am and 10 pm without a permit.

The public will be required to strictly follow precautionary measures which include maintaining physical distance from others as per guidelines and wearing a face mask. Those who do not wear a mask will be subject to a fine of AED 1,000.

Members of the public have also been allowed to exercise outside their homes provided they do not leave their area of residence. They can undertake activities such as walking, running or cycling for 1-2 hours each time. Only a maximum of three people can exercise at the same time.

Permission has also been granted to allow visit first and second degree relatives as long as gatherings are restricted to not more than five people. However, visiting high-risk individuals (individuals above 60 years and those with underlying medical conditions) should be avoided.

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News Network
July 18,2020

Dubai, July 18: An NRI student who passed away in Dubai shortly after shortly after attempting his Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) Grade 12 papers in March, has scored an impressive 91.4 per cent on his board examinations, including 100 in his media studies paper.

Ahmed Ziyad, a student of GEMS Our Own Indian School in Al Qouz, Dubai, died on March 19, suffered a heart condition called Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) that stopped him from being active in sporting activities.

Ziyad's parents, teachers, and classmates remember him as a very ambitious pupil, who wanted to launch his own business and achieve great things in his life. His board results are - mass media studies 100, Marketing 97, English 84, Entrepreneurship 82, and Home Science 94.
 
Ziyad's father, Shanavaz Manangath, a real estate professional who has been a resident of Dubai for over two decades said, "Six months ago, he had collapsed while playing with his friends. Since there was an irregularity in his heartbeat, he could not take part in any strenuous activities." He added, "Ziyad had just started playing with his friends on March 19 when he suddenly collapsed and died shortly after. My family has not been able to overcome his loss."

Unable to hold back his tears, an emotional Manangath said Ziyad wanted to do his BBA and launch his own business, "He was very ambitious. Honestly, I haven't looked into his board exam results, but, I know he had studied very hard for the exams."

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News Network
May 7,2020

Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

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