Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Agencies
November 3, 2018

Istanbul, Nov 3: The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could alter the power dynamic in the Middle East by strengthening Turkey's influence at Saudi Arabia's expense as they compete for leadership of the Islamic world, analysts say.

This certainly appears to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and its allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider a terrorist group.

The killing inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2 has already severely tarnished Saudi Arabia's global reputation.

But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the oil-rich Gulf nation's de facto leader known by his initials MBS, that could permanently damage Riyadh's influence in the region.

After initially insisting Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed, then saying he died in a brawl, the Saudi regime finally stated he was killed by a "rogue operation" and arrested 18 suspects, some with links to the crown prince.

Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, even potentially leading to the royal family removing him from power -- though that seems unlikely.

"The killing of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to pressure Saudi Arabia and work towards presenting Turkey as the new leader of the Muslim world," said Lina Khatib, director of Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geo-political gamble for Turkey and so far it looks like it is playing the game masterfully. But Turkey alone will not be able to push for the removal of MBS. The ball lies in the American court," she added.

For Erdogan, promoting the Muslim Brotherhood — which Saudi Arabia has sought to marginalise in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi — is at the heart of this power struggle.

The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh for its ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017.

"I think that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity to push back against a triple entente in the Middle East that opposes his policies. That triple entente is composed of MBS, MBZ's (Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan) UAE and Sisi's Egypt," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute.

"These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policies of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because MBS is vulnerable."

But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy, said "it remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to leverage this conjuncture and turn it into a permanent advantage raising Turkey's regional influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia".

Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the Khashoggi case was the "latest chapter in Turkey and Saudi Arabia's ongoing contest over which country is better" to lead the Muslim world.

"Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a way to cut Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension, Saudi Arabia, down to size," Heras added.

By not directly pointing the blame at the crown prince over Khashoggi, Erdogan is seeking to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs think-tank.

"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken MBS in the international arena so basically he is rolling the dice these days trying to figure out how to maximise his profit after this huge Saudi blunder," he told news agency.

While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West -- especially the United States -- is wary of the group and wants to focus any pressure on the crown prince towards ending the Yemen war and lifting the blockade on Qatar, the experts said.

"I expect the blockade on Doha will likely come to an end in the near future and the Saudis find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bitar noted that the US administration relies on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israel-Palestinian conflict as well as containing Iran, long a Saudi foe.

Washington could also push the crown prince towards "a rapprochement with Israel and to maintain a hawkish line towards Iran", Bitar added.

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Agencies
July 5,2020

Iraq’s deputy parliament speaker Hassan Karim al-Kaabi on Saturday described the move as provocative and in violation of international law.

Kaabi also called on the Iraqi government to take swift measures to halt such actions.

The Embassy’s move to fire in a residential area in the heart of Baghdad is an unacceptable act and another challenge for the Arab country, adding to the mass of its provocations and illegal actions in Iraq, he noted.

According to Iraqi media, the US tested a patriot missile system inside Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone.

Anti-US sentiments have been running high in Iraq since Washington assassinated top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani and the second-in-command of the Iraqi popular mobilization units, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, in January.

Following the attack, Iraqi lawmakers unanimously approved a bill on January 5, demanding the withdrawal of all foreign troops.

Baghdad and Washington are currently in talks over the withdrawal of American troops. Iraqi resistance groups have vowed to take up arms against US forces if Washington fails to comply with the parliamentary order.

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Agencies
May 7,2020

Dubai, May 7: Indians in the UAE have voiced scepticism about a "massive" operation announced by New Delhi to bring home some of the hundreds of thousands of nationals stranded by coronavirus restrictions.

"It is just propaganda," said Ishan, an Indian expatriate in Dubai, one of seven emirates in the UAE and long a magnet for foreign workers.

He was reacting to his government's announcement this week that it would deploy passenger jets and naval ships to bring home citizens stuck in a host of countries.

India's consulate in Dubai said it received about 200,000 requests from nationals seeking repatriation -- mostly workers who have lost their jobs in the pandemic.

One vessel was heading to the UAE, India's government said, while two flights were scheduled to depart the UAE for India on Thursday.

But the plans drew scorn from Ishan, who was a manager at a luxury services company before he was made redundant last month.

"It's like throwing a dog a bone," the 35-year-old complained on Wednesday, dismissing the Indian government's efforts as a drop in the ocean.

"Let's say they repatriate 400 people on the first day, and about 5,000 people in 10 days, what difference has it made?"

India banned all incoming commercial flights in late March as it imposed one of the world's strictest lockdowns to tackle the spread of coronavirus.

The UAE is home to a 3.3-million-strong Indian community, who make up around 30 per cent of the Gulf state's population.

To the anger of some Indian expatriates, the evacuees will have to pay for their passage home and spend two weeks in quarantine on arrival.

"We are upset over the failure of our government," Ishan said. "What about the people with no money? How are you helping them?"

The Indian consulate could not be reached for comment.

Ibrahim Khalil, head of the Kerala Muslim Cultural Center in Dubai, said the consulate had asked him to select 100 Indian nationals for repatriation.

"We are planning to pay for the tickets of those who cannot afford it," he said, adding that the elderly, pregnant and those suffering from illnesses were a priority.

But one Indian woman, eight months pregnant in the neighbouring emirate of Sharjah, was not one of the lucky ones chosen to go back home in one of Thursday's planned departures.

"We called them but nobody would pick up," the 26-year-old, who requested anonymity, told AFP.

She arrived in the UAE a few months ago to visit her husband, who lives in a shared apartment with another family to save money.

"We have no insurance here and the medical expenses are too costly," said the woman, who was anxious to leave to give birth at home.

"I just hope that I am chosen to go back to India. I don't know why I haven't been considered."

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News Network
March 5,2020

Dubai, Mar 5: A 16-year-old Indian girl here has tested positive for the deadly coronavirus, bringing the total number of confirmed infection cases in the UAE to 28, according to media reports.

Health officials here confirmed on Wednesday that a new coronavirus case was detected in the girl who attended an Indian school in Dubai, Al-Arabiya website reported.

The girl tested positive for the COVID-19 after she contracted the infection from her father who travelled overseas, Dubai Health Authority (DHA) was quoted as saying by the report.

The Indian High School in Dubai will be closed from Thursday as a precautionary measure, the Gulf News reported.

"As a precautionary measure, Indian High School Group of schools is closed from Thursday, March 5. Detailed circular about exams will be mailed. Your well-being is important. Take care," the report said.

The father developed symptoms of the virus five days after returning to Dubai. Both the student and family members have been quarantined in hospital and are stable and recovering well. All other family members have also been quarantined, the Khaleej Times reported.

"Within the framework of comprehensive preventive measures against the spread of coronavirus, the DHA is conducting tests and monitoring the students, staff and workers of the school that may have interacted with the coronavirus patient," the DHA was quoted as saying by the Gulf News.

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