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Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey

Agencies
November 3, 2018

Istanbul, Nov 3: The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could alter the power dynamic in the Middle East by strengthening Turkey's influence at Saudi Arabia's expense as they compete for leadership of the Islamic world, analysts say.

This certainly appears to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and its allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider a terrorist group.

The killing inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from Riyadh on October 2 has already severely tarnished Saudi Arabia's global reputation.

But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the oil-rich Gulf nation's de facto leader known by his initials MBS, that could permanently damage Riyadh's influence in the region.

After initially insisting Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed, then saying he died in a brawl, the Saudi regime finally stated he was killed by a "rogue operation" and arrested 18 suspects, some with links to the crown prince.

Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, even potentially leading to the royal family removing him from power -- though that seems unlikely.

"The killing of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to pressure Saudi Arabia and work towards presenting Turkey as the new leader of the Muslim world," said Lina Khatib, director of Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geo-political gamble for Turkey and so far it looks like it is playing the game masterfully. But Turkey alone will not be able to push for the removal of MBS. The ball lies in the American court," she added.

For Erdogan, promoting the Muslim Brotherhood — which Saudi Arabia has sought to marginalise in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi — is at the heart of this power struggle.

The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh for its ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017.

"I think that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity to push back against a triple entente in the Middle East that opposes his policies. That triple entente is composed of MBS, MBZ's (Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan) UAE and Sisi's Egypt," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute.

"These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policies of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because MBS is vulnerable."

But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy, said "it remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to leverage this conjuncture and turn it into a permanent advantage raising Turkey's regional influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia".

Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the Khashoggi case was the "latest chapter in Turkey and Saudi Arabia's ongoing contest over which country is better" to lead the Muslim world.

"Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a way to cut Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension, Saudi Arabia, down to size," Heras added.

By not directly pointing the blame at the crown prince over Khashoggi, Erdogan is seeking to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs think-tank.

"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken MBS in the international arena so basically he is rolling the dice these days trying to figure out how to maximise his profit after this huge Saudi blunder," he told news agency.

While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West -- especially the United States -- is wary of the group and wants to focus any pressure on the crown prince towards ending the Yemen war and lifting the blockade on Qatar, the experts said.

"I expect the blockade on Doha will likely come to an end in the near future and the Saudis find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bitar noted that the US administration relies on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israel-Palestinian conflict as well as containing Iran, long a Saudi foe.

Washington could also push the crown prince towards "a rapprochement with Israel and to maintain a hawkish line towards Iran", Bitar added.

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Agencies
March 1,2020

Paris, Mar 1: Most of the riders and teams taking part in the abandoned UAE Tour, and who had been quarantined in their Abu Dhabi hotels since Thursday after a coronavirus scare, were cleared to leave the country, sources said.

"The pleasure of going home after several days spent at the hotel," tweeted 2018 world champion Alejandro Valverde, one of the top stars of the race along with Chris Froome, the four-time winner of the Tour de France.

"We are doing well and soon we will fly to Spain."

However, there was confusion over how many competitors and officials will be allowed to leave.

All 133 cyclists who were still in contention as well as team members were tested after it was announced by organisers Thursday that two Italian staff members on the race had tested positive for the COVID-19 virus.

Earlier Saturday, the UAE Tour, quoting health officials, said that 167 people had been tested and all were negative.

The Department of Health-Abu Dhabi were "still monitoring the condition of the remaining cases of contacts, whose lab testing findings will be available in the next few hours."

The UAE Tour cancelled its last two stages on Thursday after the coronavirus cases were confirmed.

Danish cyclist Michael Morkov of the Deceuninck-Quick-Step team, who took part in the first four stages, was placed in isolation in his hotel room after arriving in Berlin to take part in the world track championships.

However, on Saturday, he too was cleared to take part.

"The rider present in Berlin is currently in excellent health, with no suspicious clinical signs, and we are also guaranteed that he has not contacted the two members of the management of a team participating in the UAE Tour, originally suspected of coronavirus," governing body UCI said in a statement.

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Agencies
August 2,2020

Dubai, Aug 2: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on Saturday that it has started operations in the first of four reactors at the Barakah nuclear power station - the first nuclear power plant in the Arab world.

Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC), which is building and operating the plant with Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) said in a press release that its subsidiary Nawah Energy Company "has successfully started up Unit 1 of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant, located in the Al Dhafrah Region of Abu Dhabi".

That signals that Unit 1, which had fuel rods loaded in March, has achieved "criticality" - a sustained fission chain reaction.

"The start-up of Unit 1 marks the first time that the reactor safely produces heat, which is used to create steam, turning a turbine to generate electricity," said ENEC.

Barakah, which was originally scheduled to open in 2017, has been dogged by delays and is billions of dollars over budget. It has also raised myriad concerns among nuclear energy veterans who are concerned about the potential risks Barakah could visit upon the Arabian Peninsula, from an environmental catastrophe to a nuclear arms race.

Paul Dorfman, an honorary senior research fellow at the Energy Institute, University College London and founder and chair of the Nuclear Consulting Group, has criticised the Barakah reactors' "cheap and cheerful" design that he says cuts corners on safety.

Dorfman authored a report (PDF) last year detailing key safety features Barakah's reactors lack, such as a "core catcher" to literally stop the core of a reactor from breaching the containment building in the event of a meltdown. The reactors are also missing so-called Generation III Defence-In-Depth reinforcements to the containment building to shield against a radiological release resulting from a missile or fighter jet attack.

Both of these engineering features are standard on new reactors built in Europe, says Dorfman.

There have been at least 13 aerial attacks on nuclear facilities in the Middle East - more than any other region on earth.

The vulnerability of critical infrastructure in the Arabian Peninsula was further laid bare last year after Saudi Arabia's oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais were attacked by 18 drones and seven cruise missiles - an assault that temporarily knocked out more than half of the kingdom's oil production.

On Saturday, Dorfman reiterated his concern that there is no regional protocol in place to determine liability should an accident or incident at Barakah result in radioactive contamination spreading from the UAE to its neighbours. 

"Given Barakah has started up, because of all the well-rehearsed nuclear safety and security problems, it may be critically important that the Gulf states collectively evolve a Nuclear Accident Liability Convention, so that if anything does go wrong, victim states may have some sort of redress," Dorfman told Al Jazeera. 

The UAE has substantial oil and gas reserves, but it has made huge investments in developing alternative energy sources, including nuclear and solar.

Experts though have questioned why the UAE - which is bathed in sunlight and wind - has pushed ahead with nuclear energy - a far more expensive and riskier option than renewable energy sources.

When the UAE first announced Barakah in 2009, nuclear power was cheaper than solar and wind. But by 2012 - when the Emirates started breaking ground to build the reactors - solar and wind costs had plummeted dramatically.

Between 2009 and 2019, utility-scale average solar photovoltaic costs fell 89 percent and wind fell 43 percent, while nuclear jumped 26 percent, according to an analysis by the financial advisory and asset manager Lazard.

There are also concerns about the potential for Barakah to foment nuclear proliferation in the Middle East - a region rife with geopolitical fault lines and well-documented history of nuclear secrecy.

The UAE has sought to distance itself from the region's bad behaviour by agreeing not to enrich its own uranium or reprocess spent fuel. It has also signed up to the United Nation's nuclear watchdog's Additional Protocol, significantly enhancing inspection capabilities, and secured a 123 Agreement with the United States that allows bilateral civilian nuclear cooperation.

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News Network
April 23,2020

Riyadh, Apr 22: In an extraordinary initiative, the government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has decided to facilitate the travel of expatriates who have an exit and reentry visa or final exit visa to return to their countries.

This is in line with the order of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

According to the initiative, called “Auda” (return), expatriates can apply seeking permission for travel to their countries through the Absher portal of the ministry.

Announcing this, Saudi's Ministry of Interior said that the initiative will be implemented in cooperation with a number of relevant government agencies.

Requests for travel from expatriates will be received and approved in coordination with the relevant authorities to complete their travel procedures on board international flights.

As per the initiative, a text message will be sent to the beneficiary stating the travel date, ticket number and reservation details, and by which the beneficiary can obtain his travel ticket and complete the travel procedures.

Clarifying the procedures for the travel, the ministry said that the applicant shall select the icon (Auda) after visiting the Absher portal and fill the following fields: iqama (residency permit) number, date of birth, mobile number, departure city and airport of arrival.

It is not mandatory for the expatriate to have his own Absher account for availing of the service, the ministry said, adding that this facility is to enable expatriates to benefit from this initiative.

The departure will be through the following airports: King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, Prince Muhammad International Airport in Madinah, and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam.

Those expatriates who are outside these cities can benefit from the service through entering airport of departure after completion of their travel procedures in sufficient period of time.

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