King Abdullah among most powerful people

Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Abu Dhabi, Apr 26: Indian Ambassador to the UAE Pavan Kapoor says he is appalled after the bodies of three Indians flown back to India were returned to Abu Dhabi on Friday.

The three deceased Indian nationals had died of non-coronavirus causes and were flown to Delhi on Thursday but were promptly returned by authorities there.

“We are appalled at what has happened,” Kapoor told Gulf News. “We do not know if the bodies were returned because of coronavirus-related restrictions, but we are obviously not sending the remains of people [who have passed away from COVID-19],” he added.

“[As we understand], it happened because of new protocols at the airport and we are trying to sort it out,” he said.

Sent back a few hours later

“The remains were not offloaded from the plane, and were sent back a few hours later,” Kapoor explained.

The deceased were Kamlesh Bhatt, who passed away on April 17, and Sanjeev Kumar and Jagsir Singh who both died on April 13.

According to reports in Indian media, Kamlesh Bhat was 23 years old, and hailed from Tehri Garhwal district. He allegedly died of cardiac arrest. Along with the remains Kumar and Singh, Bhatt’s body was initially repatriated on an Etihad Airways flight, then sent back, even though his relatives had been on their way to collect them.

Kapoor explained the procedure through which remains are normally returned to family members back home, saying that the worker’s employer typically makes arrangements with cargo companies to repatriate bodies on cargo aircraft.

The employer applies for a No Objection Certificate from the Indian Embassy, which is granted once the Embassy ensures that all local formalities have been completed. The cargo company then applies for airport clearance, and the airline obtains approvals from the receiving airport.

“If airport protocols have changed, it means cargo companies have to be more careful about the clearance they’re getting,” Kapoor advised.

Additional costs
The ambassador added there may eventually be additional costs to repatriate the bodies but that it is first necessary to sort out the concerns.

The global coronavirus outbreak has spawned difficulties in repatriating mortal remains as a result of the travel restrictions imposed by countries. Remains of people dying from COVID-19 are not being sent back, but the caution surrounding the handling of bodies often affects the repatriation of those who succumb to other causes.

As Gulf News reported, Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan reached out to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday for intervention in bringing back the bodies of Keralites who have died in the Gulf from non-COVID-19 causes.

“I would like to draw your attention to the grievances received from Non-resident Keralites Associations (NRKs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries on the delay caused in bringing home the mortal remains of NRKs who had expired due to reasons other than the COVID-19 infection,” read the letter by the CM.

“It is learnt that a ‘clearance certificate’ from the Indian Embassies is required to process the application of bringing home the mortal remains of the dead. The Embassies are [further] insisting on the production of a no-objection certificate from the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), New Delhi. To enable to bring back the bodies of the NRIs whose deaths occurred due to reasons other than COVID-19 infection, without necessary procedural hassles, I request your kind intervention,” Vijayan has requested.

Beirut, Jul 23: The pandemic will exact a heavy toll on Arab countries, causing an economic contraction of 5.7% this year, pushing millions into poverty and compounding the suffering of those affected by armed conflict, a U.N. report said Thursday.

The U.N.'s Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia expects some Arab economies to shrink by up to 13%, amounting to an overall loss for the region of $152 billion.

Another 14.3 million people are expected to be pushed into poverty, raising the total number to 115 million — a quarter of the total Arab population, it said. More than 55 million people in the region relied on humanitarian aid before the COVID-19 crisis, including 26 million who were forcibly displaced.

Arab countries moved quickly to contain the virus in March by imposing stay-at-home orders, restricting travel and banning large gatherings, including religious pilgrimages.

Arab countries as a whole have reported more than 830,000 cases and at least 14,717 deaths. That equates to an infection rate of 1.9 per 1,000 people and 17.6 deaths per 1,000 cases, less than half the global average of 42.6 deaths, according to the U.N.

But the restrictions exacted a heavy economic toll, and authorities have been forced to ease them in recent weeks. That has led to a surge in cases in some countries, including Lebanon, Iraq and the Palestinian territories.

Wealthy Gulf countries were hit by the pandemic at a time of low oil prices, putting added strain on already overstretched budgets. Middle-income countries like Jordan and Egypt have seen tourism vanish overnight and a drop in remittances from citizens working abroad.

War-torn Libya and Syria have thus far reported relatively small outbreaks. But in Yemen, where five years of civil war had already generated the world's worst humanitarian crisis, the virus is running rampant in the government-controlled south while rebels in the north conceal its toll.

Rola Dashti, the head of the U.N. commission, said Arab countries need to “turn this crisis into an opportunity” and address longstanding issues, including weak public institutions, economic inequality and over-reliance on fossil fuels.

“We need to invest in survival, survival of people and survival of businesses,” she said.