Local Haj likely to get 40% cheaper

Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Beirut, Jul 23: The pandemic will exact a heavy toll on Arab countries, causing an economic contraction of 5.7% this year, pushing millions into poverty and compounding the suffering of those affected by armed conflict, a U.N. report said Thursday.

The U.N.'s Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia expects some Arab economies to shrink by up to 13%, amounting to an overall loss for the region of $152 billion.

Another 14.3 million people are expected to be pushed into poverty, raising the total number to 115 million — a quarter of the total Arab population, it said. More than 55 million people in the region relied on humanitarian aid before the COVID-19 crisis, including 26 million who were forcibly displaced.

Arab countries moved quickly to contain the virus in March by imposing stay-at-home orders, restricting travel and banning large gatherings, including religious pilgrimages.

Arab countries as a whole have reported more than 830,000 cases and at least 14,717 deaths. That equates to an infection rate of 1.9 per 1,000 people and 17.6 deaths per 1,000 cases, less than half the global average of 42.6 deaths, according to the U.N.

But the restrictions exacted a heavy economic toll, and authorities have been forced to ease them in recent weeks. That has led to a surge in cases in some countries, including Lebanon, Iraq and the Palestinian territories.

Wealthy Gulf countries were hit by the pandemic at a time of low oil prices, putting added strain on already overstretched budgets. Middle-income countries like Jordan and Egypt have seen tourism vanish overnight and a drop in remittances from citizens working abroad.

War-torn Libya and Syria have thus far reported relatively small outbreaks. But in Yemen, where five years of civil war had already generated the world's worst humanitarian crisis, the virus is running rampant in the government-controlled south while rebels in the north conceal its toll.

Rola Dashti, the head of the U.N. commission, said Arab countries need to “turn this crisis into an opportunity” and address longstanding issues, including weak public institutions, economic inequality and over-reliance on fossil fuels.

“We need to invest in survival, survival of people and survival of businesses,” she said.

Dubai, July 6: Even as the world’s one of the most sought after tourist destinations is gearing up to welcome foreign tourists from July 7, the authorities have taken necessary measures to prevent the spread of covid-19.

If the foreign tourists want to avoid self-isolation after landing in Dubai International Airport, they have to fetch covid-negative certificates from their home country. The certificate ought to have been issued up to 96 hours prior to the travel.

Those without a cvid-negative certificate, however, will need to undergo a PCR test on arrival at the Dubai airports and self-isolate until they receive their negative results.

"If passengers opt to take the PCR test on arrival in Dubai, they must self-isolate until test results are received. If the test result is negative, passengers can leave the hotel and enjoy the trip as normal. However, if the test result is positive, passengers are asked to follow the advice of the Dubai Health Authority and self-isolate," Emirates said in a statement.

Budget carrier flydubai said if a passenger tests positive for Covid-19, he/she would need to observe a 14-day quarantine. The airline also advised passengers to comply with all the precautionary Covid-19 measures in place in Dubai "including wearing a mask, observing social distancing and washing your hands regularly".

Tourists with Covid-19 symptoms

* If a traveller is suspected to have Covid-19 symptoms, Dubai Airports has the right to re-test to ensure the tourist is free of the virus

*It is mandatory for Covid-positive tourists to isolate themselves at an institutional facility provided by the government for 14 days at their own expense.

Other requirements

*Travel insurance: Tourists must have a travel insurance with Covid-19 cover or declare that they would bear the costs for treatment and isolation if required. "Bring an insurance certificate stating Covid-19 coverage to present at check-in," Emirates said.

*Visa: Referring to visa requirements, Emirates said: "Depending on your nationality you can get a visa on arrival, or you can apply for your visit visa from Dubai Immigration before you travel."

*Health Declaration Form: Tourists need to complete the form that states they are free from Covid-19 symptoms. This must be done before embarking.

*Tracing app: Tourists must download the Covid-19 DXB app and register details. "This is critically important since it facilitates easy coordination and communication with the health authorities if tourists experience Covid-19 symptoms," Dubai authorities had said earlier.