Longer, stronger heat predicted for India

June 9, 2015

New Delhi, Jun 9: With more than 2,300 dead in extremely hot weather across India, a recent Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay (IIT-B) study predicts more intense and longer heat waves, more often and earlier in the year in future.

Heat predictedIn a changing climate, newer areas, including large swathes of southern India and both coasts - hitherto unaffected - will be severely hit, resulting in more heat stress and deaths, said the study, published in the journal Regional Environmental Change.

"From climate model projections, we have pointed out that there is a possibility of high occurrences of heat waves in South India in future," Subimal Ghosh, associate professor at the Department of Civil Engineering, IIT-B, and one of the paper's authors, told IndiaSpend.

Heat waves in a warming world

Such a forecast is in line with global and Indian studies.

Other recent assessments have predicted that intense heat waves will grow with rising global temperatures, up by 0.9 degrees Celsius since the start of the 20th century.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) records that from 1906 to 2005, the mean annual global surface-air temperature increased by about 0.74 degrees (land-surface air temperature increases more than sea-surface temperature). As a result, there will be significant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heat waves, as IPCC's 2014 report warns.

"It is difficult to directly link this present single-year high heat-wave occurrence to climate change," said Ghosh. "However, there is a good possibility that such heat waves may indicate the adverse impacts of global warming."

A rise in the frequency and intensity of heat waves would increase the risk of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and even deaths from hot weather, the IIT-B team predicted, echoing concerns raised by IPCC scientists.

With a large proportion of people without sufficient access to water, electricity and primary healthcare facilities, India could be very vulnerable to heat waves, the study noted.

"Heat waves are an important class of climate hazard that may have serious consequences on health and ecosystem, keeping existing vulnerabilities of population in mind," says Kamal Kumar Murari, the lead author of the study and an IIT-B doctoral candidate. "Our findings highlight the need to better understand the direct temperature-related consequences in order to develop better adaptation strategies."

Multiple data sources, one result: Heat's coming

The IIT-B study is important because it is particularly exhaustive.

Murari and his colleagues used daily temperature data over 40 years (1969-2009) from 395 weather stations across India. They also used climate-change simulations of seven EarthSystem Models (ESM), which combine the interactions of atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, and biosphere under a wide variety of conditions. In addition, they used US National Center for Atmospheric Research data on daily relative humidity and data on heat-stress analysis.

Based on these datasets, the IIT-B team estimated the potential impact of future heat waves on mortality using historical data from India's ministry of home affairs.

The team projected intensity, duration and frequency of severe heat waves for low, middle and high range rates of climate change as shown in long-term projections called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) - four greenhouse gas concentration trajectories that climate modellers use to describe possible climate futures. Each pathway notes how much the planet has heated up and the concentration of greenhouse gases doing the heating.

The IIT-B team took RCP26, a projection consistent with the goal to hold global warming to 2 degrees, showing a peak and a decline in warming; RCP45, considered the most probable case; and RCP85, possibly the worst-case scenario.

Future hot zones: South India and both coasts

Under the most probable-case and the worst-case scenarios, 2070 onward, there could be an increase in intensity, duration and frequency of severe heat waves.

In particular, a large part of southern India, east and west coasts, which have been unaffected by heat waves, are projected to be severely affected after 2070.

Severe heat waves are expected to appear early in future years, starting in early April, under the worst-case scenario. A sizeable part of India is also projected to be exposed to extreme heat-stress conditions, intensification of heat wave and heat-stress leading to increased mortality.

Heat-stress is a condition in which the body cannot cool off to maintain a healthy temperature - resulting in rashes, cramps, dizziness or fainting, exhaustion, heat stroke, and a worsening of existing medical conditions.

Other studies, similar conclusion

The IIT-B study follows other studies that have also shown an increasing trend in heat waves.

Dr. D.S. Pai, who heads the Long Range Forecasting division at the National Climate Centre, Pune, and his colleagues at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), have shown a noticeable increase in the heat wave and severe heat-wave days over the country during 2001-2010 - the warmest decade recorded - compared to the previous four decades.

The IMD team used heat-wave information from 103 stations on the Indian mainland during the hot-weather season of March to July over the past 50 years (1961-2010). They examined various statistical aspects of heat waves and severe heat waves, such as long-term climatology, decadal variation, and long-term trends.

Pai and colleagues also found heat waves linked with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), denoting fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, known for its global impact. The study indicates the complexity of future weather predictions.

They found that heat waves of eight or more days peak a year after the El Nino (warm) phase of this cycle and are at a minimum a year after the La Nina (cool) phase.

The IMD team found other factors linked to heat-wave dynamics, including the annual path of the sun; moisture distribution across India and how it is influenced by seas on its either side and the arrival of the monsoon.

The arrival of the monsoon over north India marks the end of the hot weather season. In 1998 and 2002 when the monsoon was delayed, long heat-wave conditions prevailed here.

As the geographic spread of heat waves and trends change, weather scientists stress the need for better forecasts and more rigorous research.

"The present assessment could be a good starting point for considering heat waves as a disaster, even though they do not yet appears in the priorities of disaster-management plans of the Government of India," said Murari.

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News Network
January 2,2020

United Nations, Jan 2: Nearly 400,000 babies were born around the world on New Year's Day with India recording the highest number of these births worldwide at 67,385, the UN children's agency said.

An estimated 392,078 babies were born around the world on New Year's Day, according to UNICEF. Of this, an estimated 67,385 babies were born in India, the most globally. China comes in second with 46,299 births.

The beginning of a new year and a new decade is an opportunity to reflect on our hopes and aspirations not only for our future, but the future of those who will come after us,” UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore said.

As the calendar flips each January, we are reminded of all the possibility and potential of each child embarking on her or his life's journey—if they are just given that chance.”

Fiji in the Pacific most likely delivered 2020's first baby, while the US, the last of the New Year's Day. Globally, over half of these births were estimated to have taken place in eight countries - India (67,385), China (46,299), Nigeria (26,039), Pakistan (16,787), Indonesia (13,020), United States of America (10,452), Democratic Republic of Congo (10,247) and Ethiopia (8,493).

Each January, UNICEF celebrates babies born on New Year's Day, an auspicious day for child birth around the world, it said. However, for millions of newborns around the world, the day of their birth is far less auspicious.

In 2018, 2.5 million newborns died in just their first month of life; about a third of them on the first day of life. Among those children, most died from preventable causes such as premature birth, complications during delivery, and infections like sepsis. In addition, more than 2.5 million babies are born dead each year.

UNICEF said over the past three decades, the world has seen remarkable progress in child survival, cutting the number of children worldwide who die before their fifth birthday by more than half. But there has been slower progress for newborns. Babies dying in the first month accounted for 47 per cent of all deaths among children under five in 2018, up from 40 per cent in 1990.

UNICEF's Every Child Alive campaign calls for immediate investment in health workers with the right training, who are equipped with the right medicines to ensure every mother and newborn is cared for by a safe pair of hands to prevent and treat complications during pregnancy, delivery and birth.

Too many mothers and newborns are not being cared for by a trained and equipped midwife or nurse, and the results are devastating,” said Fore. “We can ensure that millions of babies survive their first day and live into this decade and beyond if every one of them is born into a safe pair of hands.”

India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country around 2027. According to UN estimates, India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050, while the population of Nigeria is projected to grow by 200 million. Together, these two countries could account for 23 per cent of the global population increase to 2050.

China, with 1.43 billion people in 2019, and India, with 1.37 billion, have long been the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent, respectively, of the global total in 2019. Through the end of the century, India is estimated to remain the world's most populous country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by China with just under 1.1 billion, Nigeria with 733 million, the US with 434 million, and Pakistan with 403 million inhabitants.

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News Network
March 2,2020

New Delhi, Mar 2: As communal violence spiked in north-east Delhi earlier this week, Hindu, Muslim and Sikh residents of a colony came together and stood guard against frenzied mobs which ran riot in nearby areas vandalising homes, shops and torching cars.

They have not let their guard down even as the situation is limping back to normalcy following four days of violence that has claimed at least 42 lives and left over 200 injured.

The B-Block colony in Yamuna Vihar has a Hindu-dominated Bahjanpura on one side and Muslim populated Ghonda on the other.

People from all faiths in the locality sit outside their homes at night and deal with any suspected outsider, Arib, a dentist in his 30s, said.

"It is the sloganeering by mobs that causes panic in the dead of night. Such slogans are from both sides and we hear groups of people moving forward towards our area.

"This is where we let the Muslim locals deal with Muslim groups and Hindu residents deal with Hindu groups coming from outside," he said.

Businessmen, doctors and people working at government offices stuck together as violence reached its crest on Monday and Tuesday, and have been guarding the locality round the clock.

Earlier, the locals had claimed inadequate police deployment in the area, but were satisfied as patrolling by security personnel increased in the last two days.

Charanjeet Singh, a Sikh who owns a transport firm, said residents have ensured that not too many people gather to guard the colony at night. It has been decided not use sticks or rods, an idea which seems to have worked in maintaining peace, he said.

"I was 10 years old when we came to this locality from Uttar Pradesh's Meerut in 1982. There were riots in 1984 and tension in 2002, but even then our area remained peaceful. We have always been united and that is the way we have helped each other," Singh, who is now in his 50s, told PTI.

Faisal, a businessman in his 30s, said after two days of major violence, there was palpable tension in the area. "Nobody could sleep in the neighbourhood even on Wednesday and Thursday when the situation was brought under control," he said.

Faisal said around 4 am on Wednesday, three to four miscreants had torched a car, but were chased away by vigilant residents. They raised an alarm and others gathered, saving other vehicles parked nearby from being damaged, he added.

On the idea of not keeping sticks while guarding B-Block, Singh said, "Violence begets violence, crowd begets crowd. We thought if somebody would see sticks or rods in our hands from a distance and large crowds standing guard, it is likely they would want to come prepared. This could fuel violence."

"Now, if there is some young man returning late in the night, we identify if he belongs to our area. If not, we normally inform him about the situation and guide him to his destination, if required," he added.

Seventy-year-old V K Sharma said people in his colony never had any trouble with each other, as he blamed "outside elements" for the violence in north-east Delhi.

"Some people have some problem with symbols. If they find a particular religion's symbol on a shop, home or a car, they vandalise it.

"This is on both sides, Hindus as well as Muslims. But not all people in all religion are like that. There are good people who outnumber these handful people involved in violence," he said.

The violence happened for two days but it would take months for fear to subside, Sharma said, as he took out his two granddaughters, aged nine and two, out for ice cream.

"I cannot reduce the tension outside my home, but at least I can make these kids feel good by reducing their craving for ice cream,” he added.

Colony resident Shiv Kumar, a property consultant, and Wasim, a government official, said they too were members of this voluntary guards' team of the colony which stays up at night to fend off miscreants.

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Agencies
February 12,2020

New Delhi, Feb 12: Delhi Chief Minister-designate Arvind Kejriwal was on Wednesday elected as the leader of AAP legislative party, a day after he led the party to an emphatic victory in the Delhi Assembly elections.

Kejriwal was elected as the AAP legislative party leader during a meeting called by him with the newly-elected party MLAs. The meeting was held at the AAP chief's residence.

Atishi, AAP's winning candidate from Kalkaji constituency said after the meeting, "It is definitely a validation of the work that has been done by AAP in the last five years, be it education, health care, water or electricity."

Kejriwal is slated to take oath as the Delhi Chief Minister for the third time at Ramlila Maidan on February 16.

AAP galloped to a landslide victory by winning 62 of the 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly elections in the face of a high-voltage campaign by the BJP, which fielded a battery of Union Ministers and Chief Ministers in its electioneering, spearheaded by Home Minister Amit Shah.

The BJP marginally improved its tally, managing just eight seats from its 2015's tally of three seats. The Congress, which drew a blank in the previous elections, failed to open its account yet again.

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