‘Low-level politics’ because I belong to a lower caste: Modi responds to Priyanka

New Delhi, Apr 21: The historic rout in oil markets that sent US crude prices plummeting to as much as minus USD 40 a barrel is unlikely to translate into any big reduction in petrol and diesel prices in India as domestic pricing is based on different benchmark, and refineries are already filled up to brim and cannot buy US crude just yet.

With storage capacity already overflowing amid coronavirus-induced demand collapse, traders rushed to to get rid of unwanted stocks triggering the collapse of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery.

Indian Oil Corp (IOC) Chairman Sanjiv Singh said the collapse was triggered by traders unable to take deliveries of crude they had previously booked because of a demand collapse. And so they paid the seller to keep oil in their storage.

"If you look at June futures, it is trading in positive territory... around USD 20 per barrel," he said.

Low oil prices may seem good in short-term but in the long run it will hurt the oil economy as producers will have no surplus to invest in exploration and production which will lead to a drop in production, he said.

He did not comment on retail fuel prices that have been static since March 16.

Oil companies have not changed rates despite a fall in international prices as they first adjusted them against the increase that was warranted from a Rs 3 per litre hike in excise duty and close to Re 1 per litre additional cost of switching over to cleaner BS-VI grade fuel from April 1.

Petrol in Delhi is priced at Rs 69.59 a litre and diesel comes for Rs 62.29 per litre.

"The negative price has no direct impact on India or Indian oil prices, as this has taken place due to crude oil produced and traded within the US. India's prices are driven partly by another benchmark, the Brent, which is still trading at USD 25/barrel. Therefore, the retail price of fuels in India are unlikely to fall," said Amit Bhandari, Fellow, Energy and Environment Studies, Gateway House.

Also, Indian refineries are already overflowing as fuel demand has evaporated due to the unprecedented nationwide lockdown imposed to curb spread of COVID-19. So, they can't rush to buy US crude.

The refineries have already cut operating rate to half because the fuel they produce has not been sold yet.

India imports 4 million barrels/day (1.4 billion barrels/year) of oil. The country has been benefitting from the falling prices of oil for the last five years, when oil dropped from a peak of USD 110/barrel to USD 50-60/barrel last year, enabling India to invest in public service programmes.

"However, the additional USD 30 fall of this week is good for India - but there is also a downside. If oil prices are too low, the economies of oil-rich gulf countries will be hurt, threatening the job prospects of the 8 million Indians working in the Gulf countries. India is the largest recipient of foreign remittances due to these workers – very low oil prices will hurt this cash stream," Bhandari said.

He said the negative price of oil shows how much oil oversupply exists in international markets today. "Global oil consumption has fallen due to the COVID-19 pandemic that traders are willing to pay customers to get rid of the barrels they can't store. The world does not have enough storage capacity, and dumping the oil is an environmental crime."

The first half of April saw Brent crude oil prices plummet 63.6 per cent to USD 26.9 per barrel. Prices of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American oil, had also fallen similarly by 63.1 per cent.

But on April 20, WTI prices turned rapidly negative because traders on the Nymex exchange rushed to offload their May futures positions a day before expiry of contracts (on April 21).

Such WTI futures are traded on the Nymex exchange with contracts settled in physical crude oil. Problem is, those who had gone long are unable to find storage facilities for the oil and had to liquidate their contracts before expiry. This caused the plunge in WTI prices.

Contrast to this, June WTI Nymex futures prices is hovering around USD 21, while Brent for June delivery is at USD 25.

Miren Lodha, Director, CRISIL Research said the demand for crude oil was declining already because of economic slowdown when the COVID-19 pandemic-driven lockdowns crushed it further.

Consequently, oil demand is expected to contract by 8-10 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2020 assuming demand recovery begins from the third quarter of the year, he said, adding if recovery doesn't happen by then, further demand destruction could occur.

On the supply side, producers reining in output following a strategic deal between OPEC members, Russia and the US.

Under this agreement, OPEC+ would reduce oil production by 9.7 mbpd for May and June, but gradually ease the curb to 7.7 mbpd between July and December 2020, and to 5.8 mbpd till April 2022 to stabilise prices.

"This is expected to reduce some surplus in the market by the end of 2020," Lodha said.

Crude oil demand is expected to decline by over 20 mbpd in April alone. Typically, monthly global demand is about 100 mbpd. Given this scenario, supply curbs would have limited influence.

Consequently, Brent oil prices is expected to be in the USD 25-30 range for the second quarter while increasing marginally in the last 2 quarters of 2020.

"The gigantic inventory build-ups and lack of storage facilities would also put pressure on prices," he said, adding overall Brent could average USD 30-35 in 2020, with a strong downward bias.

Amaravati, Mar 28: The state governments of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka carried out a joint quarantine operation to help over a thousand migrant labourers from various districts of Andhra Pradesh.
The Andhra Pradesh administration received the information that 1,334 migrant labourers were trying to return to the state after obtaining passes from the Deputy Director of Fisheries in Mangalore, Karnataka.
The labourers, according to a press release by the Andhra Pradesh government, were headed towards the Nangili Toll Plaza in Kolar district, from where they would enter the state to return to their native places.
"The Chittoor Collector, Superintendent of Police and Sub-Collector rushed to the spot to coordinate with their counterparts from Kolar, Karnataka. The migrant workers were not permitted to enter AP due to the lockdown and the guidelines of the Union as well as state government," according to the release.
Instead, both the governments decided to initiate a joint quarantine operation in Kolar while taking precautionary measures to ensure that none of the labourers are carriers of the COVID-19 infection.
The Andhra government also reassured the Kolar administration that it will provide doctors, healthcare and all other facilities. It has also issued directions for logistical support, food, water, transport to take the labourers to quarantine facility, and medical team, consisting of 12 doctors, 22 supervisors and other staff, to be provided.
While the Prime Minister had imposed a nationwide lockdown, including the suspension of inter-state travel to prevent the spread of coronavirus, migrant workers and labourers around the country have started returning back to their native places fearing joblessness and cash crunch.
Andhra Pradesh as of Saturday 9:30 am, had 14 confirmed cases of coronavirus while Karnataka's count stood at 55, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

New Delhi, Jan 18: Asha Devi, the mother of the 2012 Delhi gang-rape victim, on Saturday slammed senior lawyer Indira Jaising for her suggestion that she should forgive her daughter's rapists.

"Who is Indira Jaising to give me such a suggestion? The whole country wants the convicts to be executed. Just because of people like her, justice is not done with rape victims," Asha Devi said here.

"Cannot believe how Indira Jaising even dared to suggest this. I met her many times over the years in Supreme Court, not even once has she asked for my well being and today she is speaking for the convicts. Such people earn their livelihoods by supporting rapists, hence rape incidents do not stop," she added.

Asha Devi further accused Jaising of using "the garb of human rights" to make a living.

'People like her keep earning money under the garb of human rights. I do not need her suggestions... Just because of people who think like her incidents like rape keep happening, she is a disgrace to women," she said.

Earlier yesterday, Indira Jaising, through a tweet, had urged Asha Devi to forgive the perpetrators and had used the example of Congress interim president Sonia Gandhi, who had forgiven Nalini, one of the convicts who was given the death penalty by the courts.

"While I fully identify with the pain of Asha Devi I urge her to follow the example of Sonia Gandhi who forgave Nalini and said she did not want the death penalty for her. We are with you but against the death penalty," Jaising's tweet read.