Low pressure over Arabian sea to intensify into ‘cyclonic storm’ soon, says IMD

New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

New Delhi, Jun 13: Veteran Urdu poet Anand Mohan Zutshi 'Gulzar' Dehlvi passed away on Friday afternoon, five days after he recovered from COVID-19.

He died at his Noida home, and was a month shy of turning 94.

"His corona test came negative on June 7 and we brought him home. Today he had lunch and at around 2.30pm he passed away," his son Anoop Zutshi told PTI.

"He was quite old, and the infection had left him very weak. So doctors are thinking it was possible a cardiac arrest," he added.

A freedom fighter and a premier 'inquilabi' poet, Dehlvi was admitted to a private hospital on June 1 after testing positive for coronavirus.

Born in old Delhi's Gali Kashmeerian in 1926, he was also the editor of 'Science ki Duniya', the first Urdu science magazine published by the Government of India in 1975.

Remembering her fond memories of Dehlvi, historian-writer Rana Safvi recalled seeing the poet at most 'mushairas' in Delhi.

"I cannot express how big a loss it is. We used to see him at every 'mushaira' in Delhi. It's a big loss to Delhi and the world of poetry," Safvi said.

She also took to Twitter to express her condolences.

"Sad to hear about Gulzar Dehlvi saheb's demise. He was the quintessential Dilli waala. May he rest in peace," she tweeted.

According to Delhi-based poet and lawyer Saif Mahmood, Dehlvi was "the presiding bard of Delhi", following in the footsteps of iconic poets like Mirza Ghalib, and Mir Taqi Mir.

His death is the "end of an era", he said.

"No one knew the nooks and crannies of Mir and Ghalib's Delhi like him. Gulzar saheb claimed that his father, Allama Pandit Tribhuvan Nath Zutshi 'Zaar Dehlvi', was a disciple of the renowned poet Daagh Dehlvi," he said, while reminiscing his meeting with Dehlvi three years back.

The poet had recited a still unpublished 'sher' (couplet) then, Mahmood said, which seems more relevant now in the aftermath of his demise.

"Mere baad aane waalon, meri baat yaad rakhna/ mere naqsh-e-pa se behtar, koi raasta nahin hai". (Those who come after, remember what I say/ there’s no better way than to follow my footprints).

"He was a true exemplar of not just the Urdu language but also of the Urdu culture. In fact he was a living and breathing form of Urdu tehzeeb," Mahmood said.

Jan 6: India’s Finance Ministry has delivered a challenge to its revenue collectors: meet tax targets despite $20 billion of corporate tax cuts.

Through a video conference on Dec. 16, officials were exhorted to meet the direct tax mop-up target of 13.4 trillion rupees ($187 billion), a government official told reporters. Collection in the eight months to November grew at 5% from a year earlier, against the desired 17%.

The missive shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s urgent need to buoy public finances in a slowing economy where April-November tax collections were half the amount budgeted. Authorities withheld some payments to states and have capped ministries’ expenditure as the fiscal deficit ballooned beyond the target.

The government’s efforts to maintain its deficit goal goes against advice from some quarters, including central bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, who urged more spending to spur economic growth.

It’s uncertain though how much room Modi’s administration has to boost expenditure, given that it may already be borrowing as much as 540 billion rupees through state-run companies, a figure that isn’t reflected on the federal balance sheet. Uncertainty about public finances pushed up sovereign yields in November and December, compelling Das to announce unconventional policies to keep costs in check.

“This is not a time to conceal the fiscal deficit by off-budget borrowing or deferring payments,” said Indira Rajaraman, an economist and a former member of the Reserve Bank of India’s board. “If they were to stick to the target, that would be catastrophic because there is so much pump-priming that is needed right now.”

GDP grew 4.5% in the quarter ended September, the slowest pace in more than six years as both consumption and investments cooled in Asia’s third-largest economy. Only government spending supported the expansion, piling pressure on Modi to keep stimulating.

S&P Global Ratings warned in December it may downgrade India’s sovereign ratings if economic growth doesn’t recover. Government support seems to be waning now, with ministries asked to cap spending in the final quarter of the financial year at 25% of the amount budgeted rather than 33% allowed earlier. This new rule will hamstring sectors including agriculture, aviation and coal, where not even half of annual targets have been disbursed.

As the federal government runs short of money, it’s been delaying payouts to state administrations.

Private hospitals have threatened to suspend cash-less services to government employees over non-payment of dues, while a builder informed the stock exchange about delayed rental payments from no less than the tax office itself.

India is considering a litigation-settlement plan that will allow companies to exit lingering tax disputes by paying a portion of the money demanded by the government, the Economic Times newspaper reported Saturday.

The move will help improve the ease of doing business besides unlocking a part of the almost 8 trillion rupees ($111 billion) caught up in these disputes. The step, which is being considered as part of the annual budget, could also bridge India’s fiscal gap.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has refused to comment on the deficit goal before the official budget presentation due Feb. 1.

A deviation from target, if any, “will need to be balanced with a credible consolidation plan further-out,” said Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.