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New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

New Delhi, Apr 16: South Delhi District Magistrate Brij Mohan Mishra on Thursday said that the administration is investigating how the pizza delivery boy contracted the coronavirus.

"In the last 15 days, we discovered houses he had delivered food. We contacted people living in 72 houses and they have been asked to stay in-home quarantine. No symptoms have been seen in people related to him. 

Testing of his roommate has been done and his reports are awaited. The rest of the people don't have any symptoms, they have been placed under institutional quarantine. Those in-home quarantines are also asymptomatic," Mishra said.

"Unless a positive case comes, we feel that transmission has not taken place. The boy told us that he was continuously wearing a mask while delivering the food. We are also finding out how he got infected. We are getting the information about the places he visited for delivery. He was tested on the basis of the doctor's advice. Later, he tested positive," he said.

72 families have to stay in home quarantine in the Malviya Nagar area after the delivery boy tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday.
Delhi Health Minister Satyendra Jain said that 17 other delivery boys linked with the infected person have also been placed under institutional quarantine.

"A pizza delivery boy has been detected with COVID-19 here. 17 other delivery boys linked with him have been placed under institutional quarantine and 72 people have been placed under home quarantine," Jain said.

Food delivery app Zomato said that the staff of the infected person's restaurant has delivered some orders which were placed on its platform.

"We've been made aware today that a restaurant's employee, who has been recently tested positive for COVID-19, had delivered food in the past to a few customers in the Malviya Nagar area in Delhi. All these customers have already been contacted by the govt authorities... We are not sure whether the rider was infected at the time of delivery," the company said in a statement.

Zomato also claimed that colleagues of the delivery boy have tested negative for COVID-19.
"This restaurant had instructed their riders to wear masks and follow strict hygiene to keep customers safe from any unintended mishap.

All co-workers of the said rider have been tested negative. And as a precaution, the restaurant where this rider worked has suspended operations," read the statement.

Feb 28: National oil marketer Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) on Friday said it is ready to supply low emission BS-VI fuels from April 1 and that there will be a marginal increase in retail prices.

The largest oil supplier has spent over Rs 17,000 crore to upgrade its refineries to produce the low-sulfur diesel and petrol, the company's chairman Sanjiv Singh told reporters here.

Without disclosing the quantum of price increase, Singh said, “there will definitely be a marginal increase in retail prices of the fuels from April 1 when the whole country will be run on new fuels, which will have a sulphur content of only 10 parts per million (ppm) as against the present 50 ppm.

“But let me assure you, we will not be burdening the consumers with a steep hike,” Singh said.

He said, state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) have invested Rs 35,000 crore to upgrade their refineries, of which Rs 17,000 crore have been spent by IOC alone.

Earlier this week, the sell-off bound BPCL said it had invested around Rs 7,000 crore for the same. ONGC-run HPCL has not so far disclosed its readiness for BS-VI supplies or its capex on the same.

HPCL had said from February 26-27 it was ready with BS-VI fuels and that it would sell only the new fuels from March 1.

IOC switched to BS-VI fuel production a fortnight ago and all its depots and containers are ready now, Singh said.

However, he said some remote locations, where the intake is very low, will take some more time to switch. But the company is planning to drain out the entire BS-IV stock and replenish the new fuels at such locations, he added.

Further, it has been reported that the companies will have to increase prices by 70-120 paise a litre, but Singh said, to arrive such a weighted average is not possible given the complexities of each refinery.

He, however, asserted that the price hike will not be a burden on consumers.

We are not looking at this investment from a pure return on investment basis, but this is a national mandate and we have done it.

Having said that, all those countries that moved to low emission fuels are charging higher prices; and from April 1, our prices will also be benchmarked against Euro VI prices as against the present practice of the cost-plus model, Singh concluded.