LS election results create vacancies in Yogi Adityanath's cabinet, first reshuffle likely soon

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

Jan 15: Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said on Tuesday that the Muslim population in India increased manifold since the partition because they were given special rights and facilities, according to a report by The Indian Express.

"The Muslim population in India has increased manifold since 1947, it has gone up by seven to eight times. No one has any objection. If they, as citizens of the country, work for development, they are welcome. Their population has increased because they have been given special rights and facilities. All possible steps were taken to ensure their growth," Adityanath said while addressing a rally in Gaya organised by the BJP in support of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.

He asked the audience, "But what happened in Pakistan?" Claiming that the Hindu population in Pakistan had decreased since 1947, he asked why it was so.

Yogi said that the countrywide anti-CAA protests are a "conspiracy" hatched from afar by those resentful of a united and grand India and these are being aided by a "crooked" opposition. He further charged that those opposing the legislation were committing the "paap" (sin) of working against national interests.

"For taking such a step, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah deserve acclaim. Instead, they are being attacked", Yogi lamented.

New Delhi, Feb 29: The father of Intelligence Bureau staffer Ankit Sharma, whose body was pulled out of a drain in northeast Delhi's riot-hit Chand Bagh, complained to police that goons had assembled at the residence of former AAP counselor Tahir Hussain and were throwing petrol bombs from the rooftop.

According to the FIR which was registered on Thursday on the basis of the complaint lodged by Ankit's father Ravinder, the goons were also firing from the rooftop.

On Tuesday, Ankit returned from his office at 5 pm and then went outside to buy groceries. When he did not return, the family started looking for him and later filed a missing report, the FIR stated.

They got to know from their neighbours that a body has been recovered from a drain… later it was found to be that of Anikt, it said, adding the body had multiple stab injuries on the face, head, back, and chest.

The family has alleged in the FIR that it was Hussain and the goons at his residence who killed Ankit. In the FIR, Hussain has been accused of murder, destruction of evidence and abduction.

Soon after the FIR was registered on Thursday, the AAP suspended Tahir Hussain from the primary membership of the party till the police completed its probe.

The death toll in Delhi's communal violence rose to 42 on Friday as the situation showed some signs of returning to normalcy and clouds of smoke cleared to reveal the extent of the damage from the worst riots in the city in over three decades.

A total of 148 FIRs have been registered and 630 people have been either arrested or detained so far in connection with the communal violence, a Delhi Police spokesperson said.