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New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.

The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.

"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.

He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.

About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.

"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.

Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.

"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."

The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.

Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.

He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.

"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.

"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.

"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.

Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.

He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.

Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.

"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.

"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.

If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.

"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.

"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.

Islamabad, Jun 23: Seven more Pakistan cricketers, including Muhammad Hafeez and Wahab Riaz, selected for the tour of England have tested positive for COVID-19, taking the total to 10, the PCB revealed on Tuesday.

The seven who tested positive on Tuesday are Kashif Bhatti, Muhammad Hasnain, Fakhar Zaman, Muhammad Rizwan, Imran Khan, Hafeez and Riaz. Shadab Khan, Haider Ali and Haris Rauf had returned positive tests on Monday.

“It is not a great situation to be in and what it shows is these are 10 fit and young athletes...if it can happen to players it can happen to anyone,” Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) CEO, Wasim Khan told a media conference.

He said a support staff member, masseur Malang Ali, had also tested positive for COVID-19.

Khan said that the players and officials would now assemble in Lahore and another round of tests would be carried out on June 25 and a revised squad would be announced the next day.

The squad has to leave on June 28 for the series scheduled to be held next month, he said.

“It is a matter of concern but we shouldn’t panic at this time as we have time on our hands,” Khan said.

He said the players and officials would be retested on reaching England.

Muzaffarpur, Mar 18: Prisoners in the central jail here are working overtime to produce facemasks to prevent the deadly COVID-19 striking. In addition to providing protection to fellow inmates and prison staff, the produce will be shared with nine district and sub jails falling under Muzaffarpur Central Prison as well, Deputy Superintendent of the jail Sunil Kumar Maurya said. From supplications at places of worship to hectic activities at the biggest hospital, this north Bihar district is witnessing invocation of all powers, human and otherwise, to prevent novel coronavirus hitting them.

Although nobody has so far tested positive for the dreaded virus in Bihar, where the state government has imposed a semi-lockdown as a preventive measure, Muzaffarpur which hit the headlines last year for losing close to 200 children to an outbreak of brain fever seems determined not to fall prey to yet another virulent affliction.

On making of facemasks by about 50 prisoners, the Deputy Superintendent of the jail said, "We have had a tradition of producing fabric at the Muzaffarpur Central Jail. An idea was floated why not use the skills acquired for producing masks which are in great demand but in short supply.

The local administration seems impressed with the endeavour of the social outcasts to rise to a global challenge.

"It is a welcome step. Despite all precautions, we never know who is going to catch the infection at which place. The efforts by prisoners to protect themselves and the staff manning their premises is laudable. "Full assistance will be provided to Central Jail authorities in supply of the masks to other prisons," Sub Divisional Magistrate (East) Kundan Kumar said.

A conservative town inhabited by a deeply religious citizenry, Muzaffarpur is also witnessing prayer congregations at temples and mosques in keeping with the tradition here of people of all faiths coming together when faced with a major challenge.

The Garib Nath temple, a renowned shrine devoted to Lord Shiva which attracts devotees from far and wide, is witness to the power of faith trumping the biggest fears as the footfall seems to have increased since the outbreak.

The temples mahant Vinay Pathak says, "faith can move mountains. People come here in search of strength to face a crisis which has caused worldwide scare. We advise the visitors to conduct regular 'havans' at their houses just like we have been performing here. "The smoke emitted by burning of purified offerings cleanses the air and, who knows, could be an antidote as well," Pathak added.

Chanting of 'Mahamrityunjay mantra', which the faith believe to be potent enough to dispel illness and untimely death, is taking place round the clock at the shrine in addition to 'havans', the mahant said.

Just a few yards away stands the Chhata Chowk mosque where large number of devotees appear in skull-caps to offer namaz.

"It is a pandemic threatening to engulf the entire world and dua (prayers) are needed as much as dawa (medicines). May God, who is one, listen to the common wish expressed by humanity in myriad ways," says Imtiaz Ahmed, a devout local resident.

Meanwhile, the health authorities are busy with their own efforts, not leaving prevention and cure to divine intervention.

District Medical Officer Shailesh Kumar Singh says a total of 42 people here who have come from abroad, have been tested but their results have been negative.

"Nonetheless, a five-bed special ward has been set up at the Sadar Hospital, manned by medical staff armed with a special kit comprising medicines and other logistics required for primary care of those with suspected symptoms," he said.

The SKMCH referral hospital, which bore the brunt of last years brain fever epidemic accounting for over 120 deaths is fully geared up to meet the latest challenge.

SKMCH superintendent Sunil Shahi says "we have a 30- ward insulation ward ready. Samples of patients with suspected symptoms are being routinely sent to RMRI, Patna. We appeal to all to remain alert, but avoid panic."