Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan tests covid positive

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, Feb 11: AAP chief and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has won from New Delhi assembly seat. He polled 46,758 votes, which is 61.1 per cent of total votes polled in the high profile constituency.

Kejriwal defeated Sunil Kumar Yadav of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), who polled 25,061 votes, which is 32.75 per cent of total votes polled. Congress candidate Romesh Sabhawarl could get only 3,220 votes.

So far, the AAP has won 55 seats and is leading on seven seats. The BJP has won seven seats and is leading on two. The Congress is nowhere in the reckoning.

As per the details on the website of Election Commission of India at 8.27 pm on Tuesday, the AAP has secured 53.60 per cent votes, BJP 38.49 per cent, BSP 0.71 per cent, CPI 0.02 per cent, CPI-M 0.01 per cent, Congress 4.27 per cent, JDU 0.90 per cent, LJP 0.35 per cent, NCP 0.02 per cent, and NOTA 0.46 per cent.

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 2: The Centre's decision to accept contributions from abroad to PM-CARES fund for fighting COVID-19 has prompted social media users to take potshots at it as Kerala was not allowed to receive foreign aid after the devastating floods in 2018.

Senior Congress leader Sashi Tharoor said accepting relief for coronavirus pandemic does not affect "one's ego", while other reactions varied from taking a dig saying 'Vikas has reached new heights" to asking where is the country's pride.

Government sources have said a decision had been taken to accept contributions from abroad to the Prime Minister's Citizen Assistance and Relief in Emergency Situations Fund (PM CARES) to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.

The Narendra Modi government had earlier turned away foreign aid, including a reported Rs 700 crore donation from the UAE, to help Kerala during the floods that devastated the southern state, while "deeply appreciating" the offers from various nations then.

Over 480 people were killed, several had gone missing during the worst floods in a century that also rendered lakhs homeless and dealt a severe blow to the state's economy.

"Flood relief for Kerala hurts ones ego. Pandemic relief doesnt. Go figure! #PMCARES!" tweeted Tharoor, who represents Thiruvananthapuram in Lok Sabha.

Another twiterratti reacted to the Centre's latest move, saying: "Wow.. a nation that built 3,000 crore statue is B3GG!NG now? Sad!"

"Vikas has reached new heights... Where are the proud Modi Bhakts?" another wrote.

"Thanks but no, says India to foreign aid for Kerala", another social media user tweeted, tagging a 2018 news report on MEA Spokesperson saying the government was committed to meeting the requirements for relief and rehabilitation in Kerala through domestic efforts.

"Pandemic is unprecedented, India has taken a decision to accept foreign donations to the PM fund. But....", "5 Trillion begging bowl", "Where did the 'National Pride' go now?" another tweet asked.

The Centre's present decision marks a shift from its earlier position of not accepting foreign donations to deal with domestic crisis.

"In view of the interest expressed to contribute to Government's efforts, as well as keeping in mind the unprecedented nature of the pandemic, contributions to the Trust can be done by individuals and organisations, both in India and abroad," a government source has said.

It said the fund was set up following spontaneous requests from India and abroad for making generous contributions to support the government in its fight against COVID-19.

On Saturday, Modi had announced setting up of the PM CARES fund.