Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.
Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.
"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.
A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.
The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.
India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.
The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.
The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.
India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.
'RIDING THE TIGER'
Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.
This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.
A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.
One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.
"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.
McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.
Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.
Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.
"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.
Comments
First teach your own men to stop intolerance.
Are you people blind not seeing surge in oppression of poor.
You don't want people to raise their concern when you do all harms to poor and minorities.
Teach patriotism and tolerance to your own men.
Teach them to Denounce Godse who killed the father of Nation who gave you an identity to call you as proud Indian.
Muslims do not need any extra teaching from others.
They have full guidance from their God
Now if you are a true concerned of your nation, then at least learn what is teaching of Islam, just adapt in your routine life.
RSS should come forward to punish the killer of mahatma gandhi. They should ban Nathuram Godse's supporters.
RSS founder and its founding members already proved their patriotism during the time of India's freedom struggle!! We Muslims in India proved our patriotism from Shaheed Tippu Sultan\s time till now, we no need any advice from RSS. A Muslim is not a complete Muslim unless he is not patriotic to his country where he/she live, this is our Prophet's word."
Dear Mr. Indresh Kumar,
Please make sure that loving one's country and its people is a good traits of the Muslims as our beloved Prophet Muhammed (peace be upon him) has said: \Love of your country (patriotism) is a part of your faith.
Never be under the opinion that Madarasas are not teaching patriotism. We love our country as you love.
Patriotism is love of one's country, loyalty and devotion to it, desire to grow and prosper collectively or as a community, and you need to understand that we muslims are being dignified citizens of India proud to say that many of our patriotic ancestors have sacrificed their blood and life during the freedom struggles of our great nation. Please make sure that Islam does not forbid a Muslim to love his homeland or the country in which he lives or grows up.
Almighty Allah says: \"O Mankind! we have created you from a male and a female, and made you into nations and tribes, that you may know one another. Verily the most honorable of you with Allah is that (believer) who has Taqwa, Muttaqoon (pious)\". Verily Allah is all knowing all aware (Quran Chapter Hujuraat, verse No. 13).
May God help all of us to live in peace in this great Nation, INDIA."
RSS should learn what is PATRIOT not the muslims or madrasa childrens.
RSS - Stop making communal voilences,bomb explosions and divie an disturbences in the society.
Preach the patriotism to thier affialitaions like VHP, Bajrangees and Goodaisms groups.
ont question Muslims patriotism.
Yes thats why you are alive.....................
we know how to LOVE our country ,Quran teaches us very nicely , we are all patriotic Indian muslims, our country is our home
Muslims love India more than you do......unlike Nathuram Godse who killed Gandhiji....
Killer of Mahatma Gandhi speaking of Patriot..
No Need Advice from RSS For Muslim
Love your country is part of islam .....
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